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Wish i knew if Counceller was ready for the debut, i’d fancy it to go well here, little nibble, but price say no
That was pretty disappointing from Cupids Glory. Couldn’t be backed with any confidence next time and has to prove he’s anywhere near the horse he was. Good ride on the winner by Guillambert.
Empty, of course I don’t mind you sticking your ‘neb’ in. That’s what this place is for. Anyway, even if I did, it would be my problem and not yours.;)
LINGFIELD (GB) 3:35 1m 2f – Pontin’s Book Early Handicap (Class 2)
No bet for me.. :angry: <br>
I’m actually more interested in these two Lingfield races today than most the jumps. Am I catching the bug?!
Lingfield 3:05<br>Areyoutalkingtome 6/4<br>Qadar 4/1<br>Hurricane Spirit 4/1
We all know Areyoutalkingtome by now, and judged by this thread have no problem forgiving him his last run. <br>I haven’t seen Hurricane Spirit and it would be some show to play with the big boys.
Areyoutalkingtome 4pts win at 15/8 (that price looks to be long gone now.)
Lingfield 3:35<br>Happy as Larry 9/4<br>Orchard Supreme 4/1<br>Red Spell 7/1<br>Bahal Shumaal 7/1<br>Very Wise 9/1<br>Fusili 11/1
An improving Pitt runner screams caution. That said, Orchard Supreme has become something of a talisman for me on this thread. I don’t think the distance will be too much of a problem, though the jockey might. Either way, 6/1 looked too long. I missed Bahar Shumaal’s winner over Xmas which at least made me feel less foolish about supporting him earlier, but also disinclined to jump back on the bandwagon having missed out. My finger did hover over Very Wise who I see is being backed.
Orchard Supreme 4pts win at 6/1
3:05 Lingfield
Areyoutalkingtome is as tough a sort as you will find and his form strongly suggests that he is considerably better at Lingfield than at Wolverhampton, so his last effort is not a huge concern, especially as he was not given a hard time.
Qadar looks held on these terms and Hurricane Spirit is an obvious danger, but this looks a big ask for a young horse and I can see him struggling to get on top here but proving to be a very good horse in time.
Of the remainder, Party Boss might retain some ability but I find it hard to envisage him being up to it on this occasion.
Recommendation : AREYOUTALKINGTOME – £6 win
<br>3:35 Lingfield
Totally competitive, and for me the best strategy is to oppose Happy As Larry. He races here off a mark 8lbs higher than when beaten over this C&D two runs ago, and I still hold the view that this trip is definitely beyond his ideal.
Pretty much everything else has some kind of form claim and rather than try and find a winner, I’ll go for a cheap lay…
Recommendation : HAPPY AS LARRY – Risk £6 on a PLACE LAY at around 1.45<br>
(Edited by non vintage at 1:16 pm on Jan. 13, 2007)
Yep – has taken me a while to warm to him but he is almost the perfect Lingfield horse, in that he has the latent speed and temperament to lay up with the pace in decent races, but is able to put in a strong burst of energy when asked in the final stages.
Given this, there may well be further profits to be made by opposing him elsewhere in half-decent races…
Well he cheered me up on a desperate day otherwise!
This thread is very successful when it has a consensus – 3 out of 4 so far I’d guess.
I agree NV.. his run at Wolverhampton indicates that he’s no Champion the wonder horse but in this race off the final turn he was checked, recovered  and when the gap appeared it was good night Vienna given his devastating turn of foot. All from a poor draw on my stats..
BTW remember Les Arcs last year? All weather handicapper in the winter to group 1 winner in the summer.. The same with Quito. Maybe early days but he’s now the star of my virtual stable.. Don’t know what his trainer has planned. but depending the race (and where) it could be lay or play..
{updated}<br>Post race comments – Racing Post
"Charles Cyzer says he is a different horse now than when frustrating last year, as he was around 20 kilos heavier than when dropped in class to win a Brighton maiden. He could run here again next weekend, but in the longer term connections hope to win a nice race on turf."
(Edited by slipperytoad at 7:27 pm on Jan. 14, 2007)
Like other forumites, 2007 has yet to be the happy hunting ground late November/December was, but hopefully, a return visit to the Sandpit will see a change of luck.
Andrew Balding turned up to the last meeting to watch his easy course and distance winner Rainbows Guest finish down the pack in a Class 5 handicap won by the progressive specialist, Smartass. Runs in the same grade, (Class 5) tomorrow.
Dropped in trip from 1m, this runner may be a class above the field here and from the one box, could make all.  Getting fitter all the time and a genuine Class 4/5 handicapper competing against some inferior opposition.
The opposition all have significant weaknesses.
Imperial Lucky: Never won on the sand. (0-7). Big weight and low win percentage.
Startori: Unproven on Fibresand (0-2) and possibly needs further.
Jellytot: 2-15 lifetime and more likely to place. Never run on Fibresand.
Black Sea Pearl: More comfortable at a grade lower, (6) and never won on the AW. Very short in the forecast for what it has achieved. Surrounded by dodgy Banded AW performers last time in a Class 6 defeat; a run seemingly overrated by the RP.
Capital Lass: When observing the auction after her win last time, I got the impression that the previous owners weren’t too sad to see the back of this one. Her three wins were in Banded and Selling company and going up the grades tomorrow. New start from a stable back struggling for winners. Wide draw.
Glamaraazi: Favourite. Never won at the trip (0-1) at a track where stamina is THE factor. Bred for sprinting, (My Generation mare).  Some fairly dubious Banded horses close behind him last time. A Class 6 performer on all evidence and looks rated on his connections, who have seemingly only once backed the horse.  If I was a layer, I’d lay this one for the mortgage. Penalised too.
Prettilini: With a different stable, I could fancy this one. Likes Southwell (4 & 2 from two runs) and a four time AW winner. Bottom weight running at his best distance. Hates Wolver so ignore the last (quiet) run. I couldn’t confidently predict a big race, because God himself struggles to work out the intentions of Mr Brotherton, but I’m saving the stake on the selection.
Sel: Rainbows Guest (circa 8/1, hopefully 10/1)<br>Danger: Prettilini (12/1)
Cheers and good luck
Max:biggrin:
(Edited by Maxilon 5 at 2:20 am on Jan. 16, 2007)
Well, I wake up this morning. Brew a cup of coffee, read the paper and log on to the Machine.
I find that Rainbows Guest is 14/1 and Prettilini is 24/1. You could knock me down with a feather!
This is one of those cases where either I’m a complete idiot…or the world is. I know it’s even money the former, but even so. I’m not usually this far out.
And the fav is 11/8?????? Best of luck.
If I was in better form, I’d pile into both of them. Now I’m confused.
If anyone’s reading this, what would you do if a horse you fancy strongly is available at prices which suggest a no-hoper?
Cheers
Max
Max,
I know nothing of the race or the horses, but if I was in that position, I’d be backing them both, to increased stakes, and would throw in the forecast as well.
Also, I see it’s an 8 runner race and I’d assume the available place odds would be "value" for you now as well.
<br>Good luck.
Thanks Tooting. Did just that.
I’ll be back next Monday after I’ve stopped crying.
(Edited by Maxilon 5 at 4:27 pm on Jan. 16, 2007)
Maxilon, I actually watched the race – reduced to living my life vicariously!
To my eyes he would have won if Seb Sanders had got his fractions right. So, assuming you were on at above 12s about a horse that went off at 7s, all you can say is it was a damned fine bet. That lost. But a damned fine bet all the same.
Keep the faith!
<br>
I also subscribe to Tooting’s logic Max, didn’t see the race but I am not one those that subscribe to the “a odds on winner is better than a 10/1 loserâ€ÂÂ
Tooting/Toad, thanks for the words of encouragement. ÂÂÂ
Believe me, they were needed…and are still much appreciated.:cool:  Cheers and the best of luck to you both.
Max
The 3yo handicap looks a good race to get the teeth into. Habalwatan is fav but I cannot understand why. He’s up in the weights for winning a very weak race last time and will need to improve again to defy this mark. The handicapper looks to have taken no chances with Alfredian Park who what was no better than an average maiden on his debut. The yard’s similar type Aypeeyes couldn’t win in handicap company after a successful debut late last year. Highland Harvest looks to remain on a good mark, but he probably didn’t achieve all that much when beating Mastership last time, that rival looking reluctant and the only other 2 runners in that contest making little impact (Racing Times not stay). Chookie Hamilton looks badly treated under a penalty for being well positioned in a slowly run contest a week ago. Leonard Charles ran too bad to be true last time but the fact he’s returning quickly and is stepped up in trip suggests he could well do much better today. Bold Saxon looks badly handicapped.
This leaves us with Beech Games who remains a maiden after 9 starts and probably has a suspect attitude. He often takes plenty of driving after leaving the stalls, but since blinkered on his last 2 starts he’s travelled much more fluently throughout the race. His last 2 runs, both here and the last one over course and distance look strong form. The first 2 from his latest start, Mastership and Chookie Hamilton having just about franked the form since whilst the fourth Pret A Porter has won since. I think he’s rather fortunate to remain on a mark of 75 and with fewer jockeys stronger than Chris Catlin taking over, I think he’s the standout bet of the day at around 12’s on betfair at the moment.
Also think Lobengula is well treated in the 1.55 and I don’t think he’ll get taken on for the lead too much. Has one of the better pilots in the race on board so is crying out for investment at 8/1.
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