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Yes, some SP that. I topped up (as is my wont) a couple of points at 18s, and then watched it drift even more!
In fact my last three bets on this thread have drifted like proverbials. I was watching them load up muttering to myself – "here we go again, more egg on my face, stupid bloody surface, bunch of cheats, blah blah blah."
Slippery – I’m kicking myself at not doing the forecast but frankly happy/astonished to have some early profit to play with.
Very taking first run by Moorhouse Lad…
<br>
Kempton 4:20 – digibet.com Handicap (Class 3)
As part of my selection process I try to determine if the favourite is legitimate, vulnerable or false. Given all the fuss regarding the fate of Kempton all-weather favourites I found this stat amazing..
Clear favourite, 3yo+ Kempton 1m2f/1m3f handicaps (all weather) win strike rate 47%..
2nd (fast time) in a class 2 event, dropped in class today, won in a fast time on his seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton and with serious doubts about the majority of the other contestants and clear favourite it should be a mortgage job on Apline Reel.. but not at his current price.. :angry:
So its action bet to continue with the exacta/tricast experiment today ÂÂÂ
(a) Alpine Reel, (b) Honduras, (c) Bobby Charles, (d) Activo
Ex – a/bcd (3 lines) bcd/a (3 lines) total 6 @ 50p £3.00<br>Tri – a/bcd/bcd  (6 lines) @ 50p £3.00
I looked at the Kempton sprint today, but even though a tempting 8 are declared ended up binning it as a "lesser of evils" race, and am going for a nice walk instead!
Ok tooting.. here’s what I wrote on the blog
2:00 5f – Betbrokers "Never Miss A Bet" Handicap (Class 3)
After “death by a 100 experimental exactas/trifectasâ€ÂÂ
Post race hindsight indicates that this was indeed a “lesser of evilsâ€ÂÂ
I’ve told you boys before to avoid Kempton (the pit of s**t
). :biggrin:I must admit to having a quick look at the race – and couldn’t understand why Tartatartufata was such a short price. Either way – I finished my night shift and went straight to bed! :cool:
Agreed Sailing but please expand.. its it the pace/draw bias.. is it the surface.. is it the nature of the horses that run there?
I for one will take your advice and not bet their until a year from now..
I wish I knew Slippy, then I would be able to exploit whatever is causing the IMO unfathomable results.
My first conclusions are the course is very odd – in fact that the surface is very slow for polytrack but the course config is pretty tight with quick turns.
I don’t think jockeys can control the pace very well – so shock results follow. If the surface was as quick as Lingfield – I’m sure we would see more understandable races.
Hope that helps :)
Wolverhampton 14:50 <br>Pontin’s Holidays Handicap <br>£8500.00 added, 3yo plus, 5f 216y, Class 4, £5297.00 penalty
<br>Horse Analysis
1) Pinchbeck: Came back from a 7 month break with an ok effort at Lingfield (Quiet Times, Buy on the Red and Who’s Winning all in front of him) that run should have taken some of the rust away, but he usually needs one more run before hitting peak form and with an inexperienced jockey on today could find this a little too much.
2) Quiet Times: Another to come back off a long break and ran well in the Lingfield race above trying to make all (difficult at Lingfield) and only headed inside the last furlong finishing 2nd. Has won 2nd run back after a break and the small field should give him the uncontested lead he would like, however he has gone up 2lb for that last run and the bounce factor might come into play.
3) Buy On The Red: Equally matched with Quiet Times on their running at Lingfield. This will be Buy On The Red’s first appearance at Wolverhampton, and there is nothing in his form that suggests he won’t act here.
4) Marko Jadeo: Enigmatic sort who usually comes from well off the pace to deliver a fast finishing run. Beaten a short-head giving a pound by a horse rated only 57, off 75 here you would have to give him little chance, however he gave away 10 lengths at the start last time and could easily have won comfortably. The small field here would have to be a concern, the only other time he’s face so few runners he finished last.
5) Who’s Winning: He appears to like smallish fields and having plenty of room to operate in, which he should get here with such a small field. Closely weighted with both Quiet Times and Buy On The Red. Ridden today by Joe Fanning – who has rode him only the once before, a winning ride.
Pace Analysis
Quiet Times looks certain to try and make all under Neil Callan – Who’s Winning and Buy On The Red won’t want to be too far away. Pinchbeck likely to settle into fourth earlier with confirmed hold up and law unto himself Marko Jadeo virtually guaranteed to be held up last early.
Draw Conclusions:
The draw should play little or no part in this race – Quiet Times looks to have a decent draw in 2 with slouch Marko Jadeo in stall 1. Who’s Winning should be able to keep himself clear of any trouble from the outside box of 5.
<br>Eliminations:
Horse:Reason:
Pinchbeck:Usually needs another run to get fit; Difficult tosee him getting any closer to Quiet Times, Buy<br>On The Red and Who’s Winning on the last<br>outing; Inexperienced jockey.
Marko Jadeo:Small field certainly against him; Although he would have won last time with a better start<br>the loss to a horse rated only 57 has to be a<br>disappointment.
Buy On The Red:Hasn’t won for over 2 years and another very small rise in the weights last time isn’t going to help his cause. Small fields don’t appear his forte either.
The Contenders:
Horse:
Quiet Times:Has everything going for him in this race -<br>A small field so he can dominate. Holds a<br>Couple of the other runners last time out.
Who’s Winning:A battler, who should appreciate this small field,<br>Doesn’t appear to like being crowded; His best form has come with a similar break between races. Jockey 1 from 1 on him.
Full Race Conclusion:
<br>Nothing to choose between Quiet Times and Who’s Winning only the price, and at forecast even money Quiet Times cannot be played in such a tight heat. Who’s Winning currently trading at around 8.5 on Betfair has to be the call. It looks possibly he may drift further.
Great analysis above Mr Shoes.. :cool:
WOLVERHAMPTON 3:20 1m 4f – pontins.com Handicap (Class 2)
I may be a bit gun shy after the Kempton skirmish, but ratings and pace analysis mean that this race is far too contentious for me so I am going to pass. ÂÂÂ
(Edited by slipperytoad at 7:34 am on Dec. 15, 2006)
Wolves 3:20
I quite like my tissue – doesn’t seem to get me anywhere though.
Millville 5/2<br>Alpine Reel 7/2<br>Velvet Heights 5/1<br>Sweet Indulgence 5/1<br>Bahar Shumaaal 13/2
Corals are longest Alpine Reel which is enough to give me pause for thought about that one, and Bahar made a fool of me last time so I’m cautious about getting involved in the race now he looks like being backed; is the only with decent course form, and is very well weighted with Alpine Reel. I’ll sit it out for now. <br>
Two very difficult AW cards tomorrow, but one jockey booking knocked my eyes out in the final race under the Kempton floodlights.
Sneaking into the handicap with an official mark of 65, my favourite dodgepot since Bayin looks to win his first race over 1m 4f.
And better, the shrewd P Mitchell engages the country’s top hold up performer, George Baker, to do the steering on stable stalwart Burgundy..
A course winner running off 65, his lowest handicap mark for two and a half years, he should get the pace he needs to perform.  This Class 6 is the lowest standard of race he’s run in since July 04. And he won that one nicely.
The opposition, Swinburn’s runner apart, are not particularly bet-enticing and Burgundy, if on a going day, cannot be out of the frame.
The Baker booking suggests Mitchell means business and the trip risk is built into the double figure price.
I’m not bothering with EW: if Burgundy doesn’t fancy it, he’ll be out the back. I’ll throw a few quid on a forecast with Swinburn’s runner Storm of Arabia who won a slowly run Lingfield handicap last time and could be improving fast.
Good luck all!:biggrin:
Sel: Burgundy. Forecast 12/1.
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