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good stuff Tooting and NV.. :cool:
2:50 7f – Racing Post Handicap (Class 2)
After yesterdays attempt to bet against two legitimate favourites :angry: and recent races where I have avoided betting (due to a low price) the jolly who on my analysis was legitimate and then went on to win, today I’ll try and experiment where hopefully I can exploit this situation
Consulting my American handicapping literature as guidance, a “spot playâ€ÂÂ
Considering my comments about Orchard Supreme earlier in the thread, there is little point repeating what I said there, other than a 2 lb rise I think underestimates him. He’s the selection.
I was very lucky NV. :o
Such is the difference (a short nose in this case)between success and failure is this game. I don’t have much to add in terms of further analysis on this race, but was surprised by the market confidence in Red Spell.
In the future like you I shall be looking to play in exotics and actively looking to key certain horses to keep the perm manageable.
Just had a preliminary look at tomorrow’s Southwell sprint, and realised there’s some great stuff on this thread from the last sprint there. Well worth reviewing.
That’s a nice and unexpected bonus from a thread like this.
Southwell 3:00 5f – WBX.COM World Bet Exchange Handicap
Déjàvu as most of the runners we’ve already seen before. Who’s turn is it to win today?
3/1 Night Prospector, 5/1 Dancing Mystery, 7/1 First Order, 15/2 Moorhouse Lad, Stoneacre Lad, 8/1 Matuza, 11/1 Anfield Dream, Efistorm
My initial analysis had Night Prospector down as a legitimate favourite. After reviewing his recent win at Wolverhampton on Saturday; he had to grind down Efistrom to win but the manner of the win and the fact he was rated much higher before being claimed by his new stable may suggest that there may be more in the locker to defy a penalty from a good stall position on a surface he’s already proven on.
Dancing Mystery has only gone up 1lbs for his recent win and he is still well handicapped and again is predicted to get a soft lead  and once more play “catch me if you canâ€ÂÂ
3:00 Southwell
For me, this race is almost impossible to solve. Normally, a decent handicap at Southwell might feature a handful of genuine contenders and several more who are unlikely winners because they are unproven or not as good on the fibresand. Sadly that is not the case today.
Le Chiffre – ran very well in poor claimer on winning racecourse debut in first time blinkers. Now dropped to 5f but of interest on first run for Nigel Shields.
Pawan – has more than enough ability to win off this mark, acts here and is effective over the trip but ran badly last time (lost irons). Can’t back but can’t rule out. Good luck Ann – don’t lose those irons.
Anfield Dream – 212 record over C&D and only narrowly touched off by Dancing Mystery last time. Of interest.
Efistorm – suited by this C&D and ran well for the first time in 5 starts at Wolverhampton last time. Stable has hit form now (2 from 2 yesterday) and mark looks very feasible. Slight draw question might not be so much of an issue on a damp track. Big chance.
Night Prospector – 1 from 1 here (over 6f) either side of narrow Wolverhampton wins. On the same mark as the last of those and has a chance, although occasional tendency to come late may not be ideal.
Quiet Times – acts ok here (6 from 21) but very in and out and although potentially well treated has no more than a fair chance in a fiercely competitive heat.
Stoneacre Lad – 2 C&D wins and ran well behind Dancing Mystery last time but then so did a few of these. Mark of 83 looks about right and may need further leniency before striking.
Moorhouse Lad – never run here and will need to act very well on the surface to get involved. Ran ok last time and one of two half-siblings has won here (albeit a weak claimer). A less likely winner, but a good run wouldn’t be a total surprise.
Matuza – starting to be frustrating, although it might be that the handicapper has this one about right. Should finish well here and won’t be far away.
Dancing Mystery – fab horse, still going strong and run consistently well lately. Should run well, but I feel that this might be a bit too much for the old boy, with several of these seemingly or likely to be in better shape now.
First Order – in form but hasn’t run here so again will need to truly act on the surface to get involved. Doesn’t really appeal at single figure odds.
Conclusion<br>No nice angle or reasonable starting point for this. However, there is one horse I would be annoyed if it won. With a good run at a track which hadn’t previously appeared to suit and a return to form for a yard which had been quiet, I’ll take Efistorm here, with minimal confidence.
EFISTORM – £4 win
I think Night Prospector is vulnerable today. He took all of Wolverhampton’s 5f to get there on Saturday night and with Southwell providing a greater emphasis on speed at 5f than that track I think he could struggle to confirm placings with Efistorm.
Southwell 3:00
Looks wide open to me, despite Night Prospector’s obvious chance.
Night Prospector 7/2<br>Dancing Mystery 7/1<br>Matuza 7/1<br>Stoneacre Lad 7/1<br>First Order 9/1<br>Efistorm 10/1<br>Anfield Dream 12/1<br>Moorhouse Lad 16/1
The first thing to say Slippery is, purely on your tissue, shouldn’t you be getting stuck into Moorhouse Lad? Possibly each way considering he’s 5/1 to place against your 15/2 to win.
I think this race looks to have a bit more pace in it to the last Southwell race, which will play against Dancing Mystery this time, and not sure his draw is an advantage either.
Night Prospector does look solid but the price looks terrible.
The rest, as you have both pointed out are full of ifs and buts. Purely on my tissue Stoneacre Lad equals my equivalent of NV’s Efistorm, and this race may fall in his lap more readily than the slow one last time. That said, I’m already resigned to watching him slew across the track even if he does come to challenge!
Even on my prices I could talk myself into throwing a point at Moorhouse Lad, so again I’ll use the thread as intended and add him.
Stoneacre Lad 3pts win at 11/1 <br>Moorhouse lad 1pt win at 28/1
(I’m already 19pts down on this experiment!)
On Saturday, Tooting, Gentlemans Deal who had competed in top grade handicaps won pulling a bus on his return to the AW.
Like that horse, Moorhouse has one piece of top grade handicap form at Newmarket which, if repeated, entitles him to win this a long way.
Beautifully drawn in 6 and the trainer has been on ATR saying it is fancied. Very, very tough race to call though.
ok.. I’m in the mood for a cliff jump today.. :o
After rading the various inputs here are some further thoughts on the race..
The chance of the front-running Efistrom should not be overlooked however I am very concerned about the form of his jockey on this surface (1/10/70).
This week I read an article that confirms my progressive draw data that stalls 1 and 2 have an excellent record
Hugh Tailor Trend Spotting Column – ATR
“ANOTHER All Weather trend that has continued to prove profitable has been backing very low-drawn horses on the straight course (5f) at Southwell. Previous editions of this column have suggested backing stalls 1 and 2 in handicaps over this course and distance, and whilst this has been reasonably successful this year (5-26, a tiny overall loss at SP), it’s worth noting that the simple plan of backing stall 1 blindly in all 5f races at the Nottinghamshire venue has come up trumps again, providing 10 wins from 38 runs so far in 2006 and a profit of 35pts. Whenever a 5f race comes up at this track, it’s always worth looking at stalls 1 and 2 to see if you can make any sort of case for a value bet; if you can, it’s usually worth getting involved.â€ÂÂ
Well done! Another result for the thread.. :biggrin:
The Straight Forecast: paid £254.48,  Exacta: £109.70  did you have a few points on Tooting?
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