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Apologies to slipperytoad for using his thread but I probably won’t ever put up another AW tip so I thought here was the best place.
Port Hill tomorrow looks of real interest. Deportivo’s offspring have shown a liking for Southwell when tried there and Port Hill’s dam also won at the track. He makes his fibresand debut tomorrow and although the trip is possibly on the short side for him I think the surface will more than counteract that. The stable is still in good form and some of his recent form looks even better in the light of subsequent performances by the horses that have beaten him.
Like me,Tuffers picked up on my posted selection in 4.35 Southwell..Port Hill…well beaten in the end..Looked fine in the paddock and I followed trainer to Bookies..he had £400 on it at 11-2…So why did it run so badly when it was bred for the surface??..Retrospective analysis is always useful and I can only think that the rise in class caught it out…Raised from a 0-54 at Wolver to a 0-70 C Southwell,and off a BHB mark 4 lbs higher could well be the reason…I had a decent bet at 11-2 and blew my dosh…I can, therefore ,only offer apologies for flagging it up in the first place…John
I think the drop back in trip probably caught him out as well as the stop-start pace (Hayley Turner seems a law unto herself on front runners at the moment). He’s crying out for 1m6f IMHO and hopefully he will be stepped back up in trip now.
Sloop, Was it the owner or trainer that had £400 on? I thought the way he hung was disconcerting. Maybe he could benefit from a bit of Portway air?
Apologies to slipperytoad for using his thread but I probably won’t ever put up another AW tip so I thought here was the best place.
All welcome on this thread Tuffers especially if you tip a winner!
Lingfield 2.10
Betting Forecast
Arctic Lynx 3/1, Qadar 9/2, Waabel 10/1, Norville 10/1
Comment
Arctic Lynx looks like a legitimate favorite and priced accordingly by the market. Qadar looks the obvious danger so I will use both in a speculative exacta.
Selection
A. Arctic Lynx B. Qadar C. Waabel D. Norville
Exacta: AB with CD (4 lines)Lingfield 4.55
Betting Forecast
Lockantanks 5/1, Blue Moon 6/1, Titan Triumph 6/1, Buaiteoir 7/1, Pegasus Again 9/1
Comment
Titan Triumph’s recent race though good was noted as “muddling” and maybe the reason why Corals are best price. Pegasus Again runs against the track base bias. Beaten favourite and whip shy Buaiteoir had no excuses last time out.
Selection
Lockantanks @ 5/1, Blue Moon @ 6/1 or betterNot been faring too well on the AW of late but attempting another pension job today
330W Sharp Shoes Alt Seeking Rio
400W Setters Princess
430W Metropolitan Chief
500W The Tatling Alt Almaty Express
530W Standpoint Alt Smalljohn
540K Kidlat
640K Best Trip Alt Sherjawy
740K Ermyntrude Alt One OiBest of luck
Sticky going (figuratively speaking, in reality it’s nearly always standard of course) lately…
Down to 3 runners, the
5:20 at Wolverhampton
still looks quite interesting, with the likely odds-on favourite Desert Strike possibly one to take on…
Of the three, Desert Strike would appear the least ‘pacey’ and has done really well pouncing off decent speed. The scenario tonight that is most likely is that Galpin Junior leads Steelcut with DS at the back, and a moderate gallop. At five furlongs, that could be curtains for the favourite, and the other two are perfectly capable of an ‘upset’ if it pans out that way.
I’ll be
laying Desert Strike
here.
- Total Posts 17716
Silaah, 2.00, Lingfield
, looks something to bet on at the current 6/1.
Unraced over this c/d since being touched off by Ebraam when 15lb wrong at the weights, he is reckoned (by the OH) to have improved 22lbs since. Most of his subsequent races have been over 6f, against all types of opposition, where he has shown plenty of speed but hasn’t quite lasted home (With the exception of Kempton, where he was allowed a soft lead and stole the race from the front).
Ideally drawn to make full use of his early toe, and a hold up horse on his inside, he’s capable of leading all of these a merry dance.Lets keep this famous old thread going for the Winter.
My 2 for today
24/11/2011 16:10 Kempton Lovat Lane
24/11/2011 18:40 Kempton Illustrious LadAt BFSP
Great tipping there, Tim. I was happy enough with my 2. Both traded much shorter inrunning from long SP’s.
Today
25/11/2011 16:30 Wolverhampton Barachiel
25/11/2011 17:35 Wolverhampton Spinning RidgeCheers Paul. Your selections ran well at big prices, good work.
Wolverhampton 7.40
(watch this one go horribly wrong)!Two 2nds again yesterday evening, but they both ran well, the penalty did for Spinning Ridge in the end. Unlucky, Tim that Tarooq is tenacious!
Today
26/11/2011 20:20 Wolverhampton Haaf A Sixpence
26/11/2011 21:20 Wolverhampton Dingaan*update 8:38pm
Dingaan now a non runner
New Bet 8:50 Little PerisherYou’ve got more 2nds than Mount Mcleod
Dingaan could break it for you if he fancies it, surprising amount of winners for grayson in the last few months!
Not got much lined up today, my fancies are under priced for me, though I’d be hopeful of a big run from
Snow Dancer
in the
7.50
and
Global
in the
6.50
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