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Southwell tomorrow. Just had a moment when I discovered my current squeeze is actually a ladyboy. I was working on the SL website and discovered this little beauty.
12.20
Cool Sands.
6f Southwell November
112
13/14/15 runners
1
`
After a short break (4 days tomorrow)141
JP Guillambert riding
3/7
(5/7 placed)
The ladyboy moment? SL had this at a juicy 16/1 and I was getting seriously excited. Unfortunately, the RP (which I logged onto to cross check), had it at 13/2!!. I wouldn’t ordinarily back a horse trained by the fairly ordinary James Given in single figures but hopefully tomorrow I might get 8 or 9/1, particularly with a top form
Outer Hebrides
in the field.
Quite like Ocean Legend and Clear Sailing in the seller at 2.20 but it all depends on the intentions of the respective yards on the day.
The rest of Southwell is too tough for me – as it has been all November.
Best of luck.
Max
To be honest the contestants in this race have more holes in their form than my girlfriend’s fishnet stockings!Outer Hebrides
is on my shortlist too along with Cool Sands for the same reasons. My problem with
Cool Sands
is his tendency to start slowly and given the early pace bias over 6 furlongs he may be running all to late for the win slot and settle for a place position in the later stages of the race.
Lets hope that J-P Guillambert can get him out of the gates quicker than my G/F’s fishnets hitting the floor!
In the cold light of day changed my view of the race Max
—Contenders
Diamond Blade, Outer Hebrides, Hart of Gold, Dickie Le Davoir, Danum Dancer, Grand Palace, Cool SandsMinimum Odds: 7/1
Probably spent far too much time last night analysing this race which is unfortunate given that low grade races defy logical handicapping.
Diamond Blade is opposable on account of limited form on the all weather surface. Sire form suggests that he won’t take to the firbesand. An early pace bias eliminates slow starters Hart of Gold, Cool Sands, Dickie Le Davoir and Danum Dancer. Process of elimination leaves
Outer Hebrides
and
Grand Palace
as my two against the field.
I shall keep a close eye on the stranger of the field
Sleepy Blue Ocean
. His trainer once had a good record at Southwell around this time of year so if the market twitches in a positive way I may wade in with a small interest.
Slippery, its a real struggle to handicap anything at Southwell at the moment so I’m looking for stand out horses. I had a good punt on Jackie Kiely last week only to see Swords have a (nicely backed!), going day. What would you do about the rematch today in the last? I didn’t even look.
January and February are better months.
Cool Sands has an eye catching profile, but, as you say, many weaknesses. It was the 16/1 I was interested in!!
I’d keep an eye on Dickie today because he needs a recent run according to my calculation. If he came back next week or the first week in December I’d be interested.
Best of luck with yours.
Me again – tea break comment.
Cool Sands at 5/1 is just not value: Stable form alone makes it a double figure proposition. If it drifted out that way (Tartarfuatata last week drifted from a ludicrous 7/1 out to 18/1 – it seems that Ladbrokes in particular overestimate the chance of Given’s horses), I’d have a tenner.
Thought it was about time I re-entered the fray on the AW so here goes
12.20 i like the look of Dickie Le Davoir in this. Showed a bit more promise the last time he ran on the AW at Wolves so I’m taking a chance this C&D winner can go well today. Inthawain is also of interest at a big price.
Following on
1.20 Miss Taken has ran respectably the last twice over C&D and is a decent EW chance at around 10’s. Blue Rum if taking to the surface could give her most to do.
220 Clear Sailing has a good record at Southwell 1222 and showed last time out at Southwell that the ability to win at this level is still there.
250 Hilbre Court is a tentavive choice. Goes well over C&D and only 2lb higher than its last win over C&D. 12/1 EW looks tempting
320 As mentioned in the RP Punching is 10lb lower than when winning on his last visit to Southwell in April and will do for me. One at a big price that might squeak a place is Tenancy who is 2lb lower than when winning over C&D this time last year.
Welcome back Aaron!! A 30321 performance too.
Having a crack at Wolver this year again?
I can’t actually edit posts any more, but I meant to say to both of you that a pal texted me to say Dickie looked in need of the run and will be spot on next time: Either next Tuesday or in two Saturdays time.
Hello Max, and Slipperytoad,
Yes I will be chancing my arm with good old Wolverhampton again. I haven’t managed to go this year but will probably make the effort with the old man in the new year. We’ve also talked about visiting Southwell for the first time as well so beware !
Contenders
Wunder Strike, Inquisitress, Cavalry Guard, Achromatic, Ardent PrinceMinimum Odds: 5/1
A point and shoot at
Inquisitress
and
Ardent Prince
Lingfield today
12.00 I don’t think this race will take a lot of winning and I’m going for Inquisitress who ran OK over C&D latest and notched a win over a mile at Kempton previously. 4lb higher than the Kempton win shouldn’t inconvenience too much against this lot. One of interest at a bigger price is Candilejas who showed a little better last time out when leading at the 2f marker over 10f at the course.
1.00 Chocolate Cookie has a bit to find at the weights but at least has been running consisitently of late on the AW and at 11/2 is worth a small interest
2.00 I Confess would seem to have every chance of leading all the way today , however I’m risking David Probert to cajole Autumn Blades to pick him up in the shadow of the post.
Nice winners chaps!!
Two interesting bits.
3.00 Good tipster Chris Wright of the Liverpool Daily Post selects a 150/1 shot for Michael Attwater. Why? It appears to have no discernible chance and the trainer has had another average season. Its also up against bluebloods. It’s 949 on Blue. Hmmmmmm…
3.30
Rudry World
is 1-1 at Lingers and twice a polytrack winner. It is also one of four distance winners in a race where stamina might be an issue for several fancied contenders. A ladies race (end of the day LOL!), so stakes tiny. 12/1 possible.
Best of luck.
Woteva 7.20 Kempton
Tom Tate’s only runner at Kempton tonight. Comes here on 3rd start for trainer (had break prior to running for T Tate) on back of respectable efforts at Nottingham and Doncaster over a shorter trip, both times keeping on one paced inside the final furlong. He has dropped steadily in the weights and is 5lb below last winning mark. Worth chancing from the foot of the foot of teh handicap at 16-1/18-1 mark.Contenders
Marjury Daw, Fitzolini, Vanadium, Copper KingMinimum Odds: 4/1
Another point and shoot
Marjury Daw
and
Copper King
at minimum odds
Nice winners chaps!!
Two interesting bits.
3.00 Good tipster Chris Wright of the Liverpool Daily Post selects a 150/1 shot for Michael Attwater. Why? It appears to have no discernible chance and the trainer has had another average season. Its also up against bluebloods. It’s 949 on Blue. Hmmmmmm…
3.30
Rudry World
is 1-1 at Lingers and twice a polytrack winner. It is also one of four distance winners in a race where stamina might be an issue for several fancied contenders. A ladies race (end of the day LOL!), so stakes tiny. 12/1 possible.
Best of luck.
Max
I’m not sure 6 of the riders would appreciate being called Ladies in the 3.30 but I can’t see past Ardmaddy ridden by Miss Joshua Moore
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