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Lets get the balling rolling with a 500/1 All Weather fourfold Accumulator.
the bet is outlined here: http://www.slipperytoad.co.uk/get-rich- … -aw-500-1/
My aim is to try and and shoot for one of these every Saturday
Selections
Wolverhampton 20:45:Muzo
(5th)
Wolverhampton 20:15 :Christmas Carnival
(3rd)
Wolverhampton 19:15 :Bertie Southstreet
, (4th)
Swinbrook
(2nd)
Wolverhampton 18:45 :Bookiesindex Boy
,(2nd)
Spic ‘n Span
, (11th)
Misaro
6 x £1 (e.g.) Accumulators. Total Stake £6.00- £6.00
Wolverhampton 17:50:
Akbabend
Wolverhampton 19:20:
Inpursuitoffreedom
(5th)
Wolverhampton 18:50:Desperate Dan
(
Swinbrook
(8th)
Wolverhampton 21:20:Sullenberger
(2nd),
Petomic
(5th),
Nesno
(10th)
6 x £1 Fourfold Accumulators. Total Stake £6.00
-£12.00
Kempton 17:40:
Especially Special
Kempton 19:10:
Point Out
(2nd)
Kempton 19:40:Ja One
(2nd),
Seminal Moment
(6th)
Kempton 20:10:Earlsmedic
(3rd),
Drawnfromthepast
(4th),
Mogok Ruby
(8th)
6 x £1 Fourfold Accumulators. Total Stake £6.00
-£18:00
No 500/1 bet today..
Kempton 17:05
Contenders
Sonhador, Head To Head, See That Girl, Reigning MonarchMinimum Odds: 3/1
Non runners have made this race even more difficult. Sonhador and
Head To Head
re-oppose again. See That Girl is the strainger of the field and
Reigning Monarch
is well drawn.
I’ll dutch the two highlighted above.
Kempton 18:35
Contenders
The Happy Hammer, Tudor Prince, Jord, Goodbye CashMinimum Odds: 4/1
Difficult.. I’ll let the market decide, possibly no bet.
Wolverhampton 19:20
Contenders
a. Great Charm, b. Resplendent Alpha, c. Forward FelinMinimum Odds: 3/1
THE Bell/Turner trainer/jockey combination should always be given respect however, Great Charm’s form on ploytrack in concerning therefore
Resplendent Alpha
is given the nod as he’s dropping in grade and should find life slightly easier in this company. Forward Felin returns to a surface she likes and is watched in the market.
Exacta: AB/ABC (4 lines)
14:20
Contenders
Femme De Fer, Irish Music, Punching
Minimum Odds: 3/1Femme De Fer has found it difficult to settle in her last 2 races over sprint distances. Given her breeding suggests preference for middle distances, I think she’ll again find today’s distance too sharp and is opposable with
Irish Raider
who is unexposed and ran a good race last time out and Punching however I have my doubts about his ability over this distance so I may leave him out of the equation before the off
14:50
Contenders
Malapropism, Bookiesindex Boy, Lithaam, Silver Prelude
Minimum Odds: 4/1With a number of last time out winners a competitive race for the grade. Malapropism runs from out of the handicap therefore is not a betting preposition. Lithaam should be undone by the penalty for the last time out win. Which leaves
Bookiesindex Boy
and
Silver Prelude
who are both on winning handicap marks.
a. King of Legend, b. Lopinot, c. Having A Ball, d. Marmooq
Minimum Odds: 5/1
A difficult race to fathom. King of Legend is the obvious choice but I’m not convinced, trouble is it’s hard to make a case for others on the shortlist.So I’ll bow to chaos and try to manufacturer a result in dutching
Lopinot
,
Having A Ball
and
Marmooq
and an exacta keying King Of Legend with the others as a saver; the CSF paying minimum of 30/1
A
over
BCD
(3 lines)
[attachment=0:nsg4rsyy]Ling 2.20.png[/attachment:nsg4rsyy]Hightime Heroine is running against the big dogs today. Same comment applies to Hellbender and Ravi River
Initially
Fathsta
was opposable until I reviewed his record. Being drawn in the car park at Chester in better races masks his form plus he may get a soft lead in a paceless field. Down in grade
Spitfire
6f form over 7 furlongs reads poorly but even my own overweight 40+ body can stay any distance on the All Weather Surface at Lingfield.
Spitfire @ 7/2 or better (2%)
Fathsta @ 6/1 or better (1%)A quite nice card tomorrow at the sandpit. Punters with deep pockets will be lining up to steam into the Godolphin horses – the boys in blue are taking a liking to the old place – but I’ll stick to the handicaps.
Three bets, all on Southwell horses: Horses with proven form on the fibresand and also horses who like winning in the cold weather (Nov/Dec).
2.30:
Tartatarfuata
and
Colorus
stand out here and I’ll take the former because James Given is just turning the corner after a bleak season and the horse with the horrible name is nicely handicapped on some old form for Derek Shaw.
3.30:
Avertis
and
Salerosa
are both high percentage Southwell horses suited by conditions. As a Liddiard fan, I’m all over the former.
4.00:
Wabbraan
(NAP) and
Maslak
dominate this apprentice handicap. Stylish wins each time the former has encountered the Rolleston ambience swings the pendulum toward Martin Hill’s horse, though I cannot let Maslak go unbacked either.
I’m having a mixed treble (2x2x2 bets),exactas and singles depending on odds.
Best of luck.
Contenders
Efisio Princess, Bonnie Prince Blue, Imprimis Tagula, SwinbrookMinimum Odds: 4/1
Horses from the Barron yard are standing dishes around Southwell during the winter however a disappointing run and 198 day course absence eliminates Premier Lad from contention. Sir Mark Prescott’s Angel Song may find this trip a little on the sharp side plus she’s no value with Seb Sanders riding.
Of the contenders, I like the look of Bonnie Prince Blue’s run last time out and today he can stalk the pace from stall 2. However Efisio Princess won last time out and could win again. Imprimis Tagula and Swinbrook are well rated but both of their best performances have been in claimers and sellers.
Conclusion: Final decision near the off depending on prices.
Backed Swinbrook at 14/1 (SJ only let me have £28 e/w though) before he got Hugh Taylored this morning. Into 8/1 now – looks to have a solid chance at a course he loves
Contenders
Loyal Royal, Musical Script, Hart of GoldMinimum Odds: 3/1
Hate backing favourites but can’t see past the chances of Loyal Royal in this race. However Musical Script and Hart of Gold could bounce back to form therefore I’ll watch the market as this should be a good guide to their chances.
A typically tough Southwell card.
I’m going to give
Tartatartufata
another chance at a big price in the last.
Given’s nine time winning mare is a winter horse. She’s been on the mark three times from seven starts in November and twice in January. She has finished
231
in Class 5 races at Southwell over this favoured 5f and many of the opposition today are confirmed Class 6 animals. She’s drawn nicely in 6 and you can forget last week’s run because the starting gate whacked her in the boat at the get-go. James Given is in better form now than at any time for a year with a good, strong winner yesterday and she has won off higher marks three times, including a win off 77 at Ayr. We might get a double figure price in such a strong race on paper.
Best of luck.
12:35
Contenders
Ensnare, Miss Eze, Murrin, Daniel ThomasMinimum Odds: 7/2
Though a winner last time out, I’ll oppose Ensnare on account of the fact that he needs to raise his game once more. Murrin overall profile is poor, however he likes Lingfield is on a winning handicap mark.
Miss Eze
is the stranger in the field. If she was running at another All Weather venue I would oppose on account of stamina.
Daniel Thomas
is another who likes Lingfield however his win/loss profile matches Murrin’s
13:35
Contenders
Dichoh, Astrodonna, Shaded Edge, Pha Mai Blue, Trade CentreMinimum Odds: 5/1
Dichoh is the lesser of evil choice the odds compliers from a sorry bunch of contestants, however the draw is a factor in this field size therefore I’ll oppose. Given the draw bias
Pha Mai Blue
and
Trade Centre
would have chances. The problem their form is not up to much.. Looks like a “
close eyes, point and shot
” at these two with half an eye on Astrodonna and Shaded Edge in the market.
Lingfield 15:35:
Ektimaal
Wolverhampton 17:50:
Huroof
Wolverhampton 18:20:
Bertie Southstreet
,
Decider
Wolverhampton 18:50:
Fourtowns Flyer
,
Caledonia Princess
Stash
6 x £1 Fourfold Accumulators. Total Stake £6.00
Estimated return if winning at best odds: £777.60Hit the crossbar..
System Running Totals
10.10.09: -£6.00 -£6.00
17.10.09: -£6.00 -£12.00
24.10.09: -£6.00 -£18.00
14:11.09: -£6.00 -£24.00Contenders
Litham, Fourtowns Flyer, Nomoreblondes, Caledonia Princess, Stash, PerlachyMinimum Odds: 5/1
Though well drawn, the market is speaking against Nomoreblondes and especially Perlachy. I think Litham is overpriced because Ryan Moore takes the ride.
Fourtowns Flyer
is one of those “
Maiden winner first time in handicap
” I’m a sucker for. I might dutch him with well rated
Stash
and
Caledonia Princess
(1st)
At last a decent Class 3 race to get my teeth into.
a. Fantasy Explorer b. Ivory Silk, c. Tabaret, d.Toms Laughter e. Doubtful Sound
Given the draw bias and fast time 2nd last time out Fantasy Explorer looks legitimate. Unfortunately nothing is certain in life especially when chaos works in the bookmakers favour in All Weather Handicaps.
On paper I don’t fancy them either of them however, given their draws if
Ivory Silk
and
Tabaret
can take advantage of their rail positions they are both currently overpriced.
As a saver I calculate the following exacta pays around 20/1 at early morning prices.
ABC
over
ABCD
(9 lines)
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