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Dismal end to a dismal year. Catlin was less than sparkling on Docofthebay (like Neil Callan, he’s not brilliant at riding hold up horses imo), and Capricorn Run is a complete dog from a stable the Ancient Oracles of Sparta themselves couldn’t second guess. Terrible selections in hindsight.
If anyone can work Lingfield out, then please let me know. Cheers.
That’s it for the AW and me for another season. I think the thread itself has been worthwhile and fun, even though we’ve not found the winners of previous years. It’s noticeable that most of the substantial contributors to the thread are value, or "big game" hunters and I don’t think the AW is any longer the place to find winners like that. Maybe it will change next year.
Cheers all.
I can’t resist telling you about this.An 18k race at the sandpit. Unfortunately, I can’t make the gig, but I’d like to see it – and the lucky last which looks a treat.
In the 2.40
Pawan
is back to his last winning mark and has an excellent record in Class 2 races at Southwell (5f).
He is the only horse in the race to win under these conditions.
Rebel Duke has a runner up spot, but guess who beat him?
The rest (good horses as they are), might be more comfortable in 3, 4 and 5.
Another point worth noting is that horses have started to win from off the pace in the past two weeks and there is a rabbit battle likely tomorrow. Pawan can settle just off the pace and come a-swooping.
12/1 forecast – though with Pawan, its difficult to tell how he will travel in the market. Downsides? The draw and..er…well, you know.
Best of luck.
Very big on
Cheveton
for this race
Still potentially upgrading and is 5/7 at 5f – The 2 losses were a neck defeat from the widest draw on the track at Musselbrough of 17 in the York Sprint Cup and the other when fluffing the start behind Judge n Jury at Donny at the end of the season.
Drawn low and potentially around the pace he can and will race close to it and everything should be nail on for him today. Stable have had a winner recently at the track and are going well enough for me to suggest he should be ready to go.
A further bonus for me is Jim Crowley, been in excellent form over the AW season and is 4/5 on this power packed sprinter!
Of the rest, i think
Rebel Duke
is far too short, he’s more likely favourite due to his course runnings more than his form, horses in here raise the bar for him in terms of opposition he has raced against and he has to show more today and he doesn’t make up 2/1 in my book.
I think
Tajneed
has a bit to do from a wide draw given he is always raced prominent over 6f and stays beyond that trip he may get rushed off his feet early unless they try to make it with him.
Ebraams
visits to this track have not been profitable for him thats for sure. I believe he is best at 6f and 5f trying to come from off the pace as he does may not play into his strengths. That aside his visit here back on the
11/12/2007
was when he was in the form of his life and on his upward curve that prepelled him to his mark in the 90’s. He ran HUGELY below form that day off 83 and then when switched straight back to the pollytrack clocked up some big figures and continued to progress to win off 93. I expect he is a good few pounds worse for this surface.
I’d put
Whiskey Creek
up as the danger, he has to improve in here and although racing against the best horses he has done yet he may well still have more to offer, his course form is excellent and he is pretty versitile in how he can be ridden and should give a good account of himself.
Cheveton to Win and Whiskey Creek for the Exacta
Well done, tbracing. Insightful and accurate posting. Can’t get R Price winners myself and thought this one badly handicapped anyway. Ho hum!
My selection was as bad as any in the dark ten year history of forum tipping – and (thank goodness), my last until the darkness of November returns – but hopefully no-one saw it.
Best of luck.
As I started this thread I guess I should re-new my contribution after a break.
Kempton 14:05
Shortlist: Extraterrestrial, Saltagioo, Cape Hawk
With a 3-0 record on the All Weather and a wide draw, winning is not impossible but highly improbable for Extraterrestrial. Saltagioo is on an upward curve and course and distance specialist Cape Hawk is always one to back first time out after a break.
Dutch:
Saltagioo
and
Cape Hawk
@ best price
Kempton 15:45
Shortlist: Al Muheer, Red Somerset, Flowing Cape
I was at Bath to watch the recent run of my virtual stable horse Red Somerset. In discussion with the head lad after the race, he would only be entered today if there were no adverse effects. Better over 8f, in a race where I predict a fast pace his stamina may come into play at the end or he may empty after a long winter campaign.
Flowing Cape is the dark horse and has that “Listed class in Handicap Company” feel about him. Though top weight, Al Muheer ran well behind Red Somerset two starts ago and is well drawn.
Dutch:
Red Somerset
and
Flowing Cape
@ best price
Danger: Al MuheerKempton 16:15
Shortlist: Royal Dignitary, Alfresco, Prince Of Thebes, Forgotten Voice
After a 535 day absence, why is Forgotten Voice a very short priced favourite?
Royal Dignitary will dominate the pace, however bitter experience has taught me that it extremely difficult to make all at Kempton over 8f. Recent form suggests that Alfresco is primed for a win and as the race unfolds pace wise he should from stall 8 get first dibs on Royal Dignitary in the final furlong.
If the pace collapses completely then I like the look of Prince Of Thebes who ran a quick time recently and drops in class today.
Dutch:
Alfresco
and
Prince Of Thebes
@ best price
I like Cordell in the 2.05. His form through the decent group class Campanologist at this track around this time last year is the equal to anything in the race. He loves the mile here and can quicken on from the front on a distance that suits front/prominent runners. Was a big price earlier at 10/1 but still a bit of value at the current 6/1.
5.05Ling Safari Sunup (EW)- All over the place last time at Epsom but gave me the impression could have finished a lot closer.
Having a go on the AW at Dundalk tonight
730Dun Fisher Hill Alt Tellelle
800Dun Hazelwood Ridge Alt Mountain Call
830Dun Ludwigshaten Alt Inwood2.45S Flores Sea – Consistent over C&D and if reproducing the time when beaten in February behind Smarty Socks will be hard to beat
4.15S Kingsmaite – EW chance if at its best
4.45S Gayanula – EW chance if reproducing form from Dec / Jan
- Total Posts 55
6.20W Another Try E.W. (if over 10-1 is available)
8.20W Gold Express E.W. (if over 10-1 is available)- Total Posts 55
I am hoping that someone took advantage of these selections.
Although Another Try didn’t reach my 10-1 criteria unexpectedly Sovereignty did (advertised on my blog if proof is required) so a nice 100-1 double!!
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