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Southwell 440
Ugenius has a C&D record of 13221 and looks to have every chance again today. Both its last two runs over C&D were in reasonable times and I can’t see it being out of the frame. Charlotte Grey whose course record form reads once out of the frame in 7 starts would rate the main danger along with Haamasy who has been consistent of late without winning but who boasts four corse wins albeit all over 6F. Looks a good tricast to me !
20/02/2009 16:15 Southwell Plenilune
20/02/2009 16:15 Southwell Bedouin Blue20/02/2009 16:50 Southwell Lisbon Lion…..3rd@14/1
20/02/2009 16:50 Southwell Adversane
20/02/2009 20:20 Wolverhampton Call Me Al
20/02/2009 20:20 Wolverhampton Conclave
20/02/2009 20:20 Wolverhampton Inner Voice
20/02/2009 20:20 Wolverhampton Openide
20/02/2009 20:20 Wolverhampton MystifiedI’m hoping that Bookiebasher Babe, in the first at Southwell, will get my day off to a good start. I think 16/1 represents a sporting bet given that it is shown as having won easily over this distance when last at Southwell three races ago, the same grade. Admittedly, the favourite is odds on and there has been two withdrawals leaving a six runner field so each way bet not for me, though a dual forecast with the fav. might be a nice little earner. If it stays in touch with the field, I would expect it to take up the running off the last bend and stay on strongly; though I’m counting on Clear Sailing running on empty close home.. I’ve had my usual bet on, win only.
Sugar! It’s gone out to 28/1. Please Sir, can I have my money back. Oh well, just as I predicted on another thread, the minute I take a price, they drift and drift. Serves me right, my usual style is to wait until the last minute before betting. That’ll teach me to not think I could give you guys a lesson in tipping.
Ouch!
KenHad to be led down to the start. Queries between jockey and trainer at the start as to whether something amiss. Never at ease throughout the race trailing in last. Previous lameness possibly still a factor. Glue factory job, perhaps.
Finished 3rd but no good for each way bets. Didn’t quite get the run on the bend but wouldn’t have won. Sorry.
Ken no need to apologise about Orpsie Boy. I selected it in another section of the board and I can hold my head up high: I have backed many, many worse 16 shots.
Orpsie had plenty to find with the first two on the ratings and was only beaten a couple of lengths under a considerate Baker ride. All it would have taken was Duff or Matsunosoke to run poorly (which happens), and we would have collected.
I’m keeping a
very
close eye on this horse in the coming weeks. Needs a tow, Lingfield, a fast run 5f, an even paced 6f, and possibly a slowly run 7f with a sprint finish.
Cheers.
What’s happened to Stoute, Gosden, Tregoning et al this winter?
What happened to the new dawn of the AW, the new respectability we all predicted in 2006?
Two years ago, you couldn’t stroll into the Kempton members for an iced Pimms without tripping over some curious representative of the flat racing glitterati.
Now? It’s business as usual for the lumpen proleteriat at the sandy coalface. Three for tomorrow.
13.30 L
The Jailer.
One of racing perennial butlers, John O Shea, could take the opener in a banded race by any other name. Goes well fresh and should get an easy lead. Ideal track and trip – expect a race winning kick off the bend.
14.00 L Kim Bailey’s old batman Alex Hales should enjoy the rarest of limelights with
True Brittania
who is ideally suited to conditions.
16.00 L Clutching at straws with this old dodgepot, but
Cavalry Guard
is the horse best suited to conditions in a desperate race where the fight for the wooden spoon is keener than the podium contest.
I can see all three of these placing. Best of luck.
- Total Posts 17716
I think
Bromhead
has to go close in the 2.00 despite conceding weight all round (he travels strongly and should at least be improving), but I’m hoping that
Chjimes
will be somewhere around the forecast 5/2 at 3.30. He looks to be holding his form really well at the moment and a 7lb penalty for a cosy win last time shouldn’t be a hinderance. He’s worst in at the weights because of that penalty, but Wotashirtfull should set the race up for him.
Advice please. I’ve been following a certain horse since it first ran in a maiden at Lingfield a few months back. It has a tendency to be out slow, whether by design or temperament I’m not sure. Its first run saw it out slow and finish very well and post-race comments then and subsequently state, "one for the future". It’s with an ‘astute’ trainer, and is running in a handicap later this week at a track and distance where I was so impressed by its first run. I’m not saying for sure it will win this week but I am keen to share my interest with others though the problem is if I go and broadcast it on here will it have any bearing on (a) the price and, if so, (b) its performance? It’s just that I’ve long suspected this one has been primed for a big touch and I’m wary of interfering with those plans by naming it just yet. When is the best time to name a horse or doesn’t it really matter? Perhaps if someone will accept a PM from me and give their opinion of its merits then that might be helpful, please.
Thanks
Ken25/02/2009 15:30 Wolverhampton Saffron’s Son
25/02/2009 16:30 Wolverhampton Millagros25/02/2009 16:30 Wolverhampton King De Lune…..3rd@25/1
25/02/2009 16:30 Wolverhampton Dr McFab
25/02/2009 17:00 Wolverhampton Gunfighter
25/02/2009 20:20 Kempton Asian Tale- Total Posts 17716
As I have said before I’m not a huge fan of all-weather betting (although I am annoyed I missed Mr Macattack at Wolverhampton yesterday, having backed him last time when losing all chance at the start), but the 3.10 at Southwell looks an interesting race.
At first glance it would appear a particularly competitive event, but I’ve been over it five or six times and keep coming back to
Special Cuvee
. On his final two runs of 2008, and indeed on pedigree, five furlongs would appear to be too short. But the deeper Southwell surface should play to his strengths and the form of even his second career outing, when beaten into second at Great Leighs, represents incredibly solid form. The more recent efforts of those involved in that race haven’t been too inspiring, but the four who surrounded Special Cuvee have either won from, or been allotted, marks between 70 and 83.
And his maiden victory here at Southwell, then trained by Mark Prescott, can’t be faulted either. Runner-up Red Baron Dancer won his next two races, including a comfortable success in a Chester nursery from a mark of 77, and the pair finished a long way clear of the 72-rated Swingfire. His final run at Kempton was disappointing, but he was off the bridle at any early stage and was only staying on late.
From what I can tell he’s potentially well-in from a mark of 77, despite the thought that Mark Prescott wouldn’t have let such a horse go (was only sold for 5,500gns). At the forecast 16/1 I’m prepared to chance that Andy Haynes can tease something out of him.
26/02/2009 15:10 Southwell Dispol Kylie
26/02/2009 20:50 Wolverhampton Mistress GreeleyRemember Ramon 7.50 Wolverhampton
If this one gets an easy lead-Blue Hills is the only real worry to him-He should win this.Has stayed 15f on Turf so the extra 2f wont worry him & he has plenty pace for a stayer/Mid dist horse.Won easily here in a 12f H’Cap not long ago & genuine excuse for the few defeats he has had, ie 10f not long enough & was taken on for the lead & didnt settle last time in the race Scarab won.
Has a nice bit of toe when required & N.Callan gets on particularly well with him.Well drawn in stall 1.Looks like it could be a good day for front/prominent runners here(as is most days) that are fancied.
Placepot will be rubbish but plenty single bets looking good.
My choices
2.10 More Time Tim * *
2.40 My Sweet Georgia * * * * *
3.10 Lesleys Choice * * *
3.40 Air Lion * * *
4.10 Bentley Brook * * * *
4.40 Quick off the Mark. * * * *
5.10 Shifting Gold * * * * *My Sweet Georgia looks nailed on & Shifting Gold will take a lot of pegging back.Bentley Brook will get an uncontested lead also.
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