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There is a good card at Lingfield today by all weather standards. I don’t bet on listed races or aw sprint races because I am useless at them so the race that catches my eye is the hcap at 2:35 which look very open imo. There are question marks about most of the runners –
The veteran Wait for the Will is presently the favorite but will not like the possible slow pace and may have been flattered in his last run 7 weeks ago.
Resplendent Ace seems to save his best performances for Kempton whilst Little Richard seems best at Wolverhampton.
Rollin’n Tumblin has been clobbered by the hcapper for his maiden win ( & possibly for finishing close to Art Man in his previous run ).
Red Wine is a 9yo who has not won on the flat for 6 years but is still the 3rd shortest price in the betting to win this
Fenners may have a chance if taking to the track on his first run here but has never won at this grade.
The two horses that I am backing are the ones where there are doubts about them staying the trip. The first is Lordswood at 7/1 who has improved for his new stable and has won at this course 3 times.
The other is Jago who did not take to hurdles in his last run but his two previous efforts over 10f at this course are respectable and his previous unplaced effort over a longer distance may be excused because it was his first run for the stable since moving here from France. Looks value at 16/1 in my opinion….I am being optimistic but you have to be in this game
Pete
Apologies for not posting on here for such a long time. The excuses are work (a 6 month overseas business trip), basketball coaching at the weekends and some personal issues that needed resolving. Now everything has come to an end I can now focus on my pastime.
3.10 Doug Grout 60th Birthday Handicap Stakes (4) 5f
7/2 Fromsong, 4/1 Halsion Chancer, Financial Times, 10/1 Merlins Dancer, Yungaburra
With a wide draw to overcome Fromsong has it all to do weaving through a wall of horses once Merlins Dancer’s blasts from stall 2 on a bid to make all. The tissue indicates a value bet on Financial Times but can help feeling that he’s a bit high in the weights. Halsion Chancer is the danger.
3.45 Listed Diamondracing Co Uk Cleves Stakes (1) 6f
11/2 Evens And Odds, Ceremonial Jade, 13/2 Maltese Falcon, 7/1 Ebraam, 8/1 Bonus, 10/1 Excusez Moi, Kostar, 20/1 King Orchisios
Bonus likes to be held up and my gut feel tells me that he’ll get boxed in from the dreaded stall 1. So it’s Ceremonial Jade at current prices
4.45 True Racehorse Ownership With Diamond Racing Handicap Stakes (2) 7f
5/1 Atlantic Story, 6/1 King Of Dixie, Ektimaal, 7/1 Qadar, 11/1 bar
Maiden winner first time in a handicap, no thanks. Slow pace race so maybe Mr Lambros to dominate the race? Both Atlantic Story and Qadar are big prices in Korals and Badbrokes books so controversially I’ll side with both as the selections.
BTW: any forum members thinking about attending the Winter Derby? I maybe attending and wanted to see if anyone wanted to meet up for a few beers..[/color:3681zw3s]
Just caught up with the lastest messages
Us Cotonites will just have to accept our lot.
You are not the only one max who is not eating chalk
I am also a great fan of Mark Cramer who is the US equalvalent of Mark Cotton.Still persevering with Wolves
750 Four Tel f/c Parkview Love
820 Desert Lover f/c Oberows Lady
850 Hits Only Cash f/c My MichelleWell done yesterday, chaps. Halcion Chancer and Atlantic Story would have made a nice double – both heavily backed by the looks of things.
And Swallow, you were well unlucky with Jago at a juicy 16/1. A pretty good day for the thread; Aaron, looks like you and I have got to pull our fingers out next week.
Max
Pretty average at present and as mentioned before will probably leave the AW alone after this weekend. Wolves where I couldn’t go wrong has suddenly changed to can’t do right and after reading the below you will probably see why.
340
I’m going to take a chance on the outsider here and have a small wager on Jilly Why. Although campaigned recently more over 6 & 7 furlongs it has been running consistently when dropped down to the minimum. Ran OK LTO after a little break and if not getting too far behind the likely leader Almaty Express could mow them down late on. I’m also taking a chance on the forecast with Desert Opal who loves the C&D and is pretty adaptable as running styles go.
The rest of the card looks once again like a favourites day ( thats the mockers put on them ! ) with some doubles and a treble on Morbick,Motarjm & King Of Legend the order of the day
Good luck with that, Aaron; a nice price.
I quite fancy Jilly’s stablemate Latif later, and would have definitely backed it with Hitchcott on (never been out the first two in nine rides). The Wragg horse in the last is of some interest because of the trainer’s undoubted quality, but I’m leaving it today in prep for an assault at Southwell tomoz.
I don’t know what I’m going to do this week. There’s only one meeting at the sandpit – and that’s on a Wednesday!? What’s occuring here? Anyroad. Lingers tomoz and a handicap yankee in the last four races.
3.30 Is Michael Wigham the best trainer in the country? His strike rate is superb:I’d have my horses with him. Benllech is 11121 at Lingers over 6f and is probably still improving but being a price man, I’m having Lucayos to bounce back on his favourite track. Crucially, Mrs Sweeting’s sprinter is best in over conditions – 62111 at Lingfield in Class 4’s – and the prominent racer is a bit better class than this lot.
4.00. Joy and Pain drops back to Class 6 after finding Class 5 a little spicy for his tastes. His record in Class 6 at Lingers over 7f is 114186111.Binnion Bay has a good course record but Mr Bridger cannot buy a winner with the Devil’s money. Dawson’s Creek is not my kind of animal under the obdurate Callan and the rest are Banded animals on a day out.
4.30 A penalty kick for Talamahana. Backing Channon’s at short prices is the fast lane to misery gulch and Andy Haynes has been, like Michael Wigham, a luminary of this AW season.
5.00 Lorikeet is 121 over 2m at Lingfield and is proven in the class, but I’m not a fan of the Sussex yard, so it has to be either Lysander’s Quest or Montosari for the Yankee. Course form makes me swing toward the latter.
The Wragg horse in the last is of some interest because of the trainer’s undoubted quality.
I thought he was ridden very gingerly by Steve Drowne. He hung badly LTO and perhaps needed gentle handling but I’m not sure if I would have been too happy had I been on. He waved the whip a few times but otherwise it was largely a hands and heels job, to which there was no obvious response. Only beaten a neck too.
I hesitated to post this because moaning about jockeys is not really my form and it’s a bad way to introduce oneself but I suppose I have to start somewhere!
Edit – It’s a ‘she’ – the horse, not Steve Drowne.
Max
Bad news for you at Lingfield tomorrow as I’m going for the same ones in the 3.30 & 4.00. I’ll leave your other two alone and put one in from the 2.00
2.00 Coral Shores f/c Solaria
3.30 Lucayos f/c Benllech t/c Sand Cat
4.00 Joy And Pain f/c Binnion BayHi Manwiththeplan and welcome aboard. I didn’t see the ride, but thanks for the heads up. The horse – she
– is certainly good enough to win a race. Looking forward to some selections.Aaron, I’m glad you put them up. I love a conscensus! I’m backing both of them in singles and a double and the four I mentioned in a Lucky 15.
Just a word of warning on Coral Shore. I backed it last week against the heavy odds on Oberlin and three out, it was hacking all over Johnstons’ animal but unfortunately Hiatt’s horse kept ducking in behind instead of going past. This might be a positive sign for a herd animal but it’s a horrible sign for a punter. On the plus side, it was punted last week and Mr Hiatt runs one of the most underrated AW gambling yards in the country (imo). The Academic won’t like leaving it behind.
Best of luck anyroad.
Hi Manwiththeplan and welcome aboard. I didn’t see the ride, but thanks for the heads up.
No problem. I wouldn’t want to overstate it – looking at a replay this morning, he was driven quite hard to get into contention coming around the bend into the home straight. It was the last furlong when I thought he might have benefited from stronger handling.
I’ve no real expertise in the AW but I like to keep an eye on horses that consistently win when they drop to a mark. Nothing revolutionary in that I suppose and it’s obviously far easier said than done. I’ve been watching this thread and have been impressed by your (plural) approach to analysing races – where the speed is, how races are likely to develop etc. It strikes me that watching lots of AW racing is key – I don’t devote enough time to that. However, if I have any blinding flashes of inspiration, I’ll certainly post them here.
[i:2n79lgt9]Quite an interesting set of races at Lingers today to my mind. (Small) placepot picks in green[/color:2n79lgt9]. Backs in bold.[/i:2n79lgt9]
2:00 – I think Mujahope[/color:2n79lgt9] is the solid one here, but I wouldn’t be confident that he will actually get his head in front.
2:30 – Probably not that great a race, and I’m far from convinced there will be a strong pace, which could bring any number of these into the equation. With the Elsworth team on the brink of form, [b:2n79lgt9]Sunley Smiles [/color:2n79lgt9][/b:2n79lgt9]makes some appeal, and at silly odds, I can’t rule out Running Supreme[/color:2n79lgt9] either.
3:00 – Similar comments apply again in this maiden, and once more the Elsworth runner (Martha[/color:2n79lgt9]) looks a potential goer with headgear applied. Although friendless thus far, I think Big Boom [/color:2n79lgt9]might be the more interesting of the newcomers…
3:30 – Just a feeling that course specialist Benllech might be assessed about right now and will prove vulnerable. Misaro is relatively fresh but doesn’t seem suited by the course, whilst the Shaw stable has finally gone quiet after a tremendous winter making hold-up merchant Muktasb look an unlikely winner. For me, BUXTON[/color:2n79lgt9] looks the bet of the card having put in a really good winning effort last time dropped back to this trip. Lucayos[/color:2n79lgt9] rates the main danger even after a couple of quiet efforts as he goes so well here and for Ms. Manser.
4:00 – Not a race that I like particularly. Dawson Creek [/color:2n79lgt9]is a front-runner, tactics which are notoriously difficult to pull off here, whilst the biggest danger on speed figures, Binnion Bay[/color:2n79lgt9], comes from the definitely-not-on-fire Bridger yard. For some reason, I don’t like Joy And Pain today, but I can’t quite put my finger on why (or on the ‘lay’ button)…
4:30 – Despite concerns expressed by others about short-priced Channon horses, I really liked the way Silca Destination [/color:2n79lgt9]won last time and at around 5/2+ she makes plenty of appeal against a favourite with weak-looking form and a potential Wigham job horse.
5:00 – No angle for me here – Lorikeet looks the most likely winner now the non-runners have come out, but the price looks on the skinny side all things considered.
Well done with Buxton yesterday NV, hope you managed to keep your finger off the lay button with Joy And Pain
I like a few at decent prices today at Wolves
2.30 Going against the favourites here with Just Spike. A little disappointing LTO though did run wide , as it did when running with a litle promise over C&D in December. A maiden run last May at 200/1 behind Buxton is also interesting. For the forecast I’m going along with Smirfys Systems to continue its recent good run. Rosie Cross at a decent price might well reach the tricast spot !
3.00 Not convinced with likely favourite Macademy Royal so I’m going for Monashee Brave to return to its best form now back at 5F. nautical who has been running consistently for the f/c.
3.30 Speagle, f/c Qaasi
4.30 C&D winners Young Scotton & Opera Writer to fight out the finish with preference for the former
5.00 Little Wing hacked up LTO but I’m going to oppose him with dual C&D winner Ten Pole Tudor who is a decent EW opportunity now back at Wolves
5.30 Am going to go for General Feeling to reproduce its winning run over C&D in January. Mister Benji who finished 2nd that day can follow him home again.
Thanks aaronizneez – I was pleased that both Buxton and Silca Destination won as I ended up just doing an e/w double after having a sudden rush of confidence. And no, I didn’t lay Joy And Pain, probably mostly because I said I wouldn’t on forum, otherwise that could have been more pain and less joy…
Wolverhampton then, primarily around placepot picks, with some reversed forecasts for fun, also combined as a trixie:
2:30 – The form of Wiltshire[/color:2yc8ee6o] and Decider is tied up closely together, but I feel that Wiltshire looks more likely to run well again this time. Moverra [/color:2yc8ee6o]makes appeal as a less obvious one for the placepot but I wouldn’t back it by itself, and, like you, I quite like Just Spike[/color:2yc8ee6o]. Couldn’t have Rosie Cross over anything other than 5f though…
3:00 – The Midgely yard seems on good terms with itself and did well in modest races last year, so Rann Na Cille[/color:2yc8ee6o] looks interesting here, whilst I also like the solid look of Nautical[/color:2yc8ee6o]’s recent efforts ahead of either Monashee Brave or Macademy Royal. R/F/C[/color:2yc8ee6o]
3:30 – I think Little Richard[/color:2yc8ee6o] will go close here, and Amwell Brave[/color:2yc8ee6o] looks the biggest danger. [b:2yc8ee6o]R/F/C[/color:2yc8ee6o][/b:2yc8ee6o]
4:00 – It’s hard to go completely against the consistent recent runs of Jalons Bridewell[/color:2yc8ee6o], but with only two places up for grabs I’ve stuck a couple of others into my perm, namely Gracious Girl [/color:2yc8ee6o](with Chris Hayes coming over to ride) and Upstanding[/color:2yc8ee6o] who is quite speedy at times and not that badly in with Jalons on official marks.
4:30 – Opera Writer and Young Scotton are in form but essentially slow and handicapped about right – they have done well of late but I think they have a vulnerable look. The two I like here are Dreams Jewel [/color:2yc8ee6o](who should win if as good on this surface as on fibresand) and Winter Cruise [/color:2yc8ee6o](who didn’t act at Southwell but has a chance on his efforts here, is unexposed, and shouldn’t be carrying too much of the placepot money. [b:2yc8ee6o]R/F/C[/color:2yc8ee6o][/b:2yc8ee6o]
5:00 – Whilst agreeing that Ten Pole Tudor makes some appeal, he may just benefit from this run and in order to oppose the dodgy looking favourite, I’ve gone with Bussell Up[/color:2yc8ee6o]. He would have been a back at bigger odds, but still makes much more appeal than anything else in this race.
5:30 – I think Grenane[/color:2yc8ee6o] will, at some point, win a couple of races off his sliding mark, but possibly over shorter and possibly with headgear on. I may still have a tiny bit each-way [/color:2yc8ee6o]on him in an otherwise trappy contest. (The Bonus King does go well fresh, but the yard has been quiet and the jockey booking may be inspired but doesn’t shout winner today)
Kempton 9.20 Free Evenings For Girls In April Handicap Stakes (4) 7f
4/1 Electric Warrior, 9/2 Apache Dawn, 5/1 Raza Cab, 6/1 Super Frank, Count Ceprano, Sailor King
Apache Dawn had excuses last time out (Stumbled start) and should make ammends if you can get 11/2 or better. At the prices Raza Cab presents tantalising place prospect this side of the race.
Great write ups lads which deserved better. Demonic racing recently imo.
Slippery, Raza Cab ran a really good race and had Quinn kept him on a straight line instead of ducking inside, I reckon he would have been third. I had a little on it at 25 but his pattern suggests that fourth or fifth run is the time to catch him – a gross horse who needs some getting fit and the George yard doesn’t overwork them (I remember reading once).
Notebooked. Might be back in a bit with some gruesome selections.
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