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I like the 2miler and quite fancy Wicked Daze. He should get the lead and also looks the most likely improver for a step up in trip. Was initially keen on Moon Mix after a very eye catching run at Kempton but am not sure he is totally straightforward. Pretty sure that Masked is a dog and will pull too hard. War of the Roses has shown a good turn of foot at shorter and I wasn;t sure he’d benefit from this step up in trip. I thought Dubai Ace was well suited by a strong gallop last time, something he’s unlikely to get today and I think the combination of penalty and the stiffer opposition will find him out today.
Angel Voices looks like bagging an uncontested lead in the older horse sprint handicap and it is a positive that Declan Cannon is teaming up with her again to take off 7 lb.
ALso like Martyr in the 10f 3yo handicap. I think the assessor has taken a massive chance putting this up just 1lb for pulling well clear with Leamington at Wolver last time. Step up in trip will be fine and he’s still open to improvement so looks to have lots in his favour.
Yes agree Prescott’s could be open to any amount of improvement at this distance, Moon Mix did thunder home at Kempton but the price reflects that, would love to see Mister Completley come late he looks big at 20’s but I’m passing over betting in this race
Simple Jim paid a handsome 7-1 for the place last week down under. Our tote works strangely so when there are very small pools you get all sorts of wacky prices. Simple Jim was 11-2 for the win.
Southwell again tomorrow?
Nice double, DJ.
Another six favourites? Thats twelve from fourteen in the last two daytime meetings. Looks like you get to keep the job for a while yet, Aaron.
I’m done on the bobboes for a bit, Mr Deering. Colder than a witches tit. But I’d be interested in your selections nonetheless.
Best of luck.
Cheers Max. The easy lead I anticipated for Wicked Daze made all the difference! Not!
I think a lot of the anti-AW moaners have never been near it. It’s much better live, on-course, imo.
February seems to be the month when form on the AW settles down. Plenty of favs are going in.
I’ll be in Tatts at Cheltenham on Gold Cup day, and, frankly, I don’t expect to enjoy the afternoon entirely. Good racing, but plenty of aggravation.
I’m happier at all the Aw tracks and at less-packed meetings in general. It’s just a personal preference thing, I suppose.
Anyway, if my selection today, Realt na Mara, trails in last, I may be joining the whingers!
Sean
Wouldn’t put you off yours but I just prefer Hits Only Jude who if runs to its previous two C&D victories will take the beating.
The rest of the Southwell card is pretty average. The 4.40 I like Another Genepri with maybe High N Dry for the f/c. In the 5.10 I am lumbering one of Max’s favourites Anduril (apologies Max) with my money with Only A Grand for the runner up spot.
The race I like today is the 6.50 at Wolverhampton where I think Town House can run well. Miss Curly & Melandre for a combination tricast. Blackheath should win the 7.20 with a good priced Tang for the f/c and the 920 could be course specialist Buscador fighting out the finish with Pelham Crescent.
Spot on with HOJ there, Aaron! 6 lengths.
My place bet wasn’t bad, but I suppose the RF would have been the thing.
Form seems to be holding well this month, and you picked some nice ones.
Well done.Sorry Max – they covered only the opening two races of the Southwell card last night and I was utterly disappointed.
Hi guys, nice couple of winners Aaron, once again.
I went down for the last three races yesterday; there seemed to be no real confidence behind Anduril and he was up to his old tricks in the race. Bloody cold, is all I remember.
Off again now, but probably won’t have a serious bet. If I was a layer, I would lay Yakimov and Oberlin who are short. The former never seems to run up a sequence and the latter has two gears (slow and slower); the Stringer horse and Hiatt’s horse upped in trip are feasible alternatives. The rest is tricky. Best of luck.
Jeez, Carvills. Have you ever seen such boring and uncompetitive racing? I spend hours in the evening with all the kit looking for “value” bets. What a complete waste of time! I have never, ever seen such slaughter.
I’m surprised there’s a bookie left in Nottinghamshire. The BHA have to sort this out. There were six horses in that last race that should be out flapping or ponying rich kids in the suburbs. And Yakimov? What did he win by? A furlong. That’s not sport.
Let’s face it. The whole value based approach of the eighties and nineties relied on the implicit knowledge that favourites had “off days” for whatever reason. And also the truism that if favourites always won, there would be no bookmakers and hence, no sport.
A bettor of outsiders, like you and I, would know that somewhere in the field was a horse with substantive backclass, who may have had a couple of excusable unplaced runs, and who was overpriced in the current market. They might not win, but you knew that the bookies had got it wrong. And then you struck.
Now, because of the ridiculous fixture expansion and the increased liquidity – and the anonymity – of betting exchanges, if a favourite can win, then it’s worthwhile to connections letting them do so. I’ve been so slow in recognising this.
It’s time to change.
“For everything there is a season,
And a time for every matter under heaven:
A time to be born, and a time to die;
A time to plant, and a time to pluck up what is planted;
A time to keep, and a time to throw away
A time for value and a time for the obvious”Ecclesiastes 3:1-8 (a bit amended)
Big price betting is dead, it seems: – assassinated by those rogues Peter Savill and Andrew Black.
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Now you know why I packed in the sand, Max!
Keep plugging away, this is just a blip….Hi Skint, well done with that one – and welcome aboard.
I wasn’t very happy this afternoon when I wrote that as I opposed Yakimov reasonably heavily. However, I do believe that in four daytime AW meetings this week on the sand, there have been twenty three favourites – including six today – from twenty eight races. I cannot recall this density occuring before in this country and as a backer of longer priced animals, my bank was bound to take the strain.
What’s worse, everyone else at the track bar the bookies were laughing and guzzling grapes like fat Roman senators! I went down to the track to watch the last three races. An old favourite backer friend of mine was by the paddock as I arrived. If his grin got any wider, he was in danger of swallowing the Johnston horse passing him by as we spoke. He asked me how my luck was. I couldn’t lie to him, could I?
He’d had the time of his life this week – and good luck to the old buzzard. My argument is, at one point in my career, I would have slaughtered him but it’s HIS world now. Us Cotonites will just have to accept our lot.
If you looked back through this thread, Skint, you’ll see that I’ve been pretty diligent in backing in some of the lowest class races ever run under Rules without complaining.
However, you are right in noticing that i’m not the greatest fan of favourites or favourite backers. In my opinion, backing favourites is a lazy way to enjoy the sport, the equivalent of having a frozen ASDA TV dinner in front of the TV. It might seem odd to say so, as you point out, but I quite enjoy the feeling of being the only person on the racecourse who’s backed the winner. Rare, but enjoyable when it happens.
Each to their own, I suppose. Shall we get back to selections, Skint?
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