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Hi Everyone i’m new to the forum.My name is Lawrence and i love backing horses.
I’ve tried various systems over the years but not made me rich.
I pick my selections by reviewing the days racing on video and make note of unlucky losers or horse’s
finishing well.I back them the next 3 times but stop at a winner.Results not bad.
I’ve always been interested in horse’s recorded times and tried to compile my own speed ratings
but to many ifs and buts.Because of the nature of the different courses (uphill,downhill,undulating etc )
the standard times are all different.Has anybody got any ideas on how to make all the standard times equal
by using a factor or a ratio somehow.Surely there is some mathematicians out there who could come up with something.Hi Sheltie and welcome to TRF. Doubt whether you’ll get much interest in this section. I myself started my Racing life following Stopwatch Speed Ratings in the old Sporting Life Weekender in the 1980’s. But surely “Standard Times” are made “equal”? ie Racing Post has every course and distance as having a Standard Time. It’s the figure either fast or slow that “equals” it all out – making comparisson between courses possible.
Personally am sceptical as to whether an individual punter can produce their own standard times accurate enough to be a worthwhile exercise. Not only because of – as you say – nature of different courses, but also rail movements and unreliable going reports. My Timeform Race Passes uses analysis they’ve picked up from many many years of information they’ve gathered… Together with (equally if not more important) Sectional Time information.
These days I find it more profitable searching for horses likely to be suited by what the pace in the race is likely to be.
Trouble with using Speed Ratings alone is the information is only valuable if the race you’re working out is going to be truly run. ie A horse’s best Speed Rating is invariably put up when a race is run in equal fractions throughout. Slower run or overly fast run races produce slower Speed Ratings. Some horses are suited more to an even pace than a slowly run affair; where as some (eg with a good turn of foot or front runners) are suited more to a slowly run race. Therefore – when studying – unless it’s going to be a truly run race a horse with a good Speed Rating is unlikely to reproduce it. Also, those horses that have not had truly run races in their form may well have a lower Speed Rating than they are capable of. Timeform ratings often allow for this in their ratings.
That said, one on here that does this sort of thing as well as anyone I’ve come across is The Blues Brother. Might be worth you looking up some of his old threads/posts.
Value Is Everything
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