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I was thinking there would be plenty to read here but so much is taken up by rubbish about avatar’s – perhaps those who remove members they don’t like can also remove ridiculous posts that have nothing to do with the original thread.
Reverting to the subject I think they leave the fence alone. The mistakes that were highlighted were simply down to jockey error rather than the horse or fence. Even some of the best jumpers make mistakes or fall – it will always happen.
Granit Jack’s death brought to the head a years old issue with that fence. An issue that was covered with factual analysis both here on the forum and in the media.
Have you got a copy of the factual analysis in the media or know where I could find it on the internet?
To the best of my recollection – and I wrote as much at the time – the analysis in the Post was fundamentally flawed in that it dealt with number of fallers to number of starters rather than the number of fallers to number of horses trying to jump the fence in question.
Ironically, if the analysis had been done correctly it would have made the point (or what I seem to recall was the point) even more forcefully.
I wouldn’t mind looking into it at some point, in any case, but that would be easier with the original article for comparison.
Cheers, Pru.
Fabulous Jet just makes a right horlix of the first at Ludlow. Someone better go and have a look at that fence as well.
Facetiousness aside, you’ve actually managed to single out the one fence at Ludlow – the first in the straight, aka "Tricky Trevor" – that has been subject to the most modifications and re-sitings of any obstacle on the course in recent memory. They’re way ahead of you!
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Fabulous Jet just makes a right horlix of the first at Ludlow. Someone better go and have a look at that fence as well.
Facetiousness aside, you’ve actually managed to single out the one fence at Ludlow – the first in the straight, aka "Tricky Trevor" – that has been subject to the most modifications and re-sitings of any obstacle on the course in recent memory. They’re way ahead of you!
gc
It was a sarcastic post really. The fence wasn’t the problem in this instance IMO more Fabulous Jet tanking his way at it and meeting it on not quite the right stride (correct me if I’m wrong as admittedly I’ve only seen it once).
I suppose the lesson to learn is however many times you modify a fence if you don’t jump it right you can still come to grief. You could argue though that such a poor jump "deserved" a fall? Loosely speaking.
I agree with you about the happy medium between safety and the challenge. I just think personally the medium has already been found with the possible exception of water jumps but that is starting another discussion.
I would be surprised if fences immediately after bends – Tricky Trevor is perhaps the most obvious instance – did not have a proportionately higher faller rate than those that are not.
I hope that some day, someone, somewhere will return racing results in a fashion that makes such analysis straightforward.
You could argue though that such a poor jump "deserved" a fall? Loosely speaking.
I’d suggest such a poor jump "deserves" a forfeiture of some advantage – whether that necessarily has to constitute a fall is something I suspect the broader spectrum of jumps enthusiasts may never agree on entirely.
I’ve not seen today’s doubtless fine fare at Ludlow yet so can’t comment on how punitively Fabulous Jet’s fall should have been punished, although anecdotally it is perfectly possible to run through many of the course’s obstacles – among some of the most poorly constructed in the country – with only token loss of momentum. That he stayed well clear of the field for most of the rest of the race suggests the same might well be the case here!
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Were he an inveterate, insatiable whinger, I’m sure the demise, for example, of his Straight Talk or Rust Never Sleeps in the Grand National a few years earlier would have precipitated voluble condemnation of the Aintree fences.
Forgive me if I have the wrong end of the stick here, but I don’t recall Nicholls having any connection to Rust Never Sleeps. Do you mean Deep Bramble?
Rumbled – yes, RNS was still trained by Donal Hassett at his demise. Nicholls’ Deep Bramble didn’t die on course, if I remember rightly, but was pretty badly injured.
Five points and a chuffty badge to our esteemed quizmaster!
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Surely the reason the scond last fence is brought u in these discussions is because it is one of the most dangerous fence on any course.
Horses are trying to quicken and jump at the same time and as bad as it sounds, as all motorists know "speed kills". Horse have gone clear or challenging it’s the same thing,,,,,they are usually going full belt or perhaps they have used so much energy getting there they mistime thier juumps as in the case of Kauto Star…..he made an awful blunder but Master Minded???? didn’t look that bad to me….he was gone going into the fence IMO.
Aintree fences are hardly the stiffest in the country so if they have to be made easier to jump at Aintree then surely it should be the same on every course in the country.
PS Nothing wrong with your Ava Flash… saves reading………sorta like a book with pictures
Surely the reason the scond last fence is brought u in these discussions is because it is one of the most dangerous fence on any course.
Horses are trying to quicken and jump at the same time and as bad as it sounds, as all motorists know "speed kills". Horse have gone clear or challenging it’s the same thing,,,,,they are usually going full belt or perhaps they have used so much energy getting there they mistime thier juumps as in the case of Kauto Star…..he made an awful blunder but Master Minded???? didn’t look that bad to me….he was gone going into the fence IMO.
Aintree fences are hardly the stiffest in the country so if they have to be made easier to jump at Aintree then surely it should be the same on every course in the country.
PS Nothing wrong with your Ava Flash… saves reading………sorta like a book with pictures
Don’t worry Fist I treat people the way they deserve to be treated I won’t lose any sleep. Can we just get away from this daft avatar thing now and concentrate on the wonderful sport we all love?
Back to the subject that matters – I think you have made a very good point about horses quickening. I would change that slightly to – coming under real pressure.
Going down to the second last is often where races are won and lost its where jockeys often make the decisive move. Some horses as you point out are flat out, some are tiring it makes sense that they will make errors. Sometimes the pressure is off as they come to the last as jockeys often know their fate.
I would just wonder how many serious jumping errors are made at the second last in relation to other fences on all courses across the country?
It is yet another case of listen to Paul Nicholls and do what he says which is annoying.
The second last has been moved anyway as it used to be bang next to the last plain fence on the National course.
Did he tell Kempton to move the last when Kauto crashed throught it NO
Did he tell Newbury to move the last when Kauto crashed through it NOHe jumped the old Haydock fences beautifully yet said the new course was perfect and moaned about those who critisized the change.
Their is nothing wrong with the Mildmay at Aintree or the Water jumps over the jumping tracks.
Runners to fell / unseated all UK chases
Year Fell Ran Total
2000 ….. 1138 ….. 10563 ….. 10.77%
2001 ….. 1084 ….. 10532 ….. 10.29%
2002 ….. 1072 ….. 10824 ….. 9.90%
2003 ….. 986 ….. 10290 ….. 9.58%
2004 ….. 1246 ….. 11556 ….. 10.78%
2005 ….. 1054 ….. 11753 ….. 8.97%
2006 ….. 1179 ….. 12234 ….. 9.64%
2007 ….. 995 ….. 11392 ….. 8.73%
2008 ….. 425 ….. 4332 ….. 9.81%Apologies for the formatting
The first % figure is fell / unseated since 2000, the second % figure is since 2006 for comparison
Aintree is a combination of both coursesCourse Fell Ran All 2yr
AINTREE ….. 547 ….. 2263 ….. 24.17% ….. 25.21%
ASCOT ….. 88 ….. 1114 ….. 7.90% ….. 7.30%
AYR ….. 242 ….. 1938 ….. 12.49% ….. 9.05%
BANGOR-ON-DEE ….. 171 ….. 2324 ….. 7.36% ….. 6.86%
CARLISLE ….. 89 ….. 1950 ….. 4.56% ….. 3.84%
CARTMEL ….. 70 ….. 818 ….. 8.56% ….. 3.00%
CATTERICK ….. 153 ….. 1407 ….. 10.87% ….. 12.02%
CHELTENHAM ….. 518 ….. 4763 ….. 10.88% ….. 10.83%
CHEPSTOW ….. 212 ….. 2532 ….. 8.37% ….. 8.08%
DONCASTER ….. 145 ….. 1216 ….. 11.92% ….. 4.58%
EXETER ….. 249 ….. 2864 ….. 8.69% ….. 9.27%
FAKENHAM ….. 186 ….. 1554 ….. 11.97% ….. 10.18%
FOLKESTONE ….. 163 ….. 2200 ….. 7.41% ….. 3.64%
FONTWELL ….. 232 ….. 2910 ….. 7.97% ….. 7.50%
HAYDOCK ….. 101 ….. 1576 ….. 6.41% ….. 4.30%
HEREFORD ….. 284 ….. 3273 ….. 8.68% ….. 8.55%
HEXHAM ….. 196 ….. 2471 ….. 7.93% ….. 7.76%
HUNTINGDON ….. 323 ….. 3331 ….. 9.70% ….. 9.99%
KELSO ….. 320 ….. 2445 ….. 13.09% ….. 12.53%
KEMPTON ….. 151 ….. 1732 ….. 8.72% ….. 7.79%
LEICESTER ….. 260 ….. 2370 ….. 10.97% ….. 12.29%
LINGFIELD ….. 41 ….. 606 ….. 6.77% ….. 6.51%
LUDLOW ….. 278 ….. 2939 ….. 9.46% ….. 7.75%
MARKET RASEN ….. 301 ….. 3278 ….. 9.18% ….. 7.92%
MUSSELBURGH ….. 145 ….. 1169 ….. 12.40% ….. 10.67%
NEWBURY ….. 151 ….. 2208 ….. 6.84% ….. 6.80%
NEWCASTLE ….. 196 ….. 1856 ….. 10.56% ….. 10.77%
NEWTON ABBOT ….. 189 ….. 2695 ….. 7.01% ….. 7.98%
PERTH ….. 171 ….. 1972 ….. 8.67% ….. 8.84%
PLUMPTON ….. 269 ….. 2265 ….. 11.88% ….. 12.36%
SANDOWN ….. 129 ….. 1892 ….. 6.82% ….. 7.13%
SEDGEFIELD ….. 244 ….. 3266 ….. 7.47% ….. 9.38%
SOUTHWELL ….. 217 ….. 1759 ….. 12.34% ….. 13.29%
STRATFORD ….. 396 ….. 3110 ….. 12.73% ….. 12.01%
TAUNTON ….. 259 ….. 2076 ….. 12.48% ….. 14.89%
TOWCESTER ….. 303 ….. 2484 ….. 12.20% ….. 11.49%
UTTOXETER ….. 292 ….. 3294 ….. 8.86% ….. 5.18%
WARWICK ….. 114 ….. 1872 ….. 6.09% ….. 4.79%
WETHERBY ….. 253 ….. 2338 ….. 10.82% ….. 8.21%
WINCANTON ….. 325 ….. 2574 ….. 12.63% ….. 12.68%
WORCESTER ….. 183 ….. 2573 ….. 7.11% ….. 5.65%Have you got a copy of the factual analysis in the media or know where I could find it on the internet?
http://www.thehra.org.uk/doc.php?id=42270
As I recall Lydia Hislop put some figures to the facts in a Times article as well as stats that members put up here.
Cheers
Those figures make interesting reading. Thanks for posting them Cavelino Rampante, appreciated.
From a quick look the thing that stands out in the overall list with the exception of 2004 every season the figures have fallen under 10% in contrast with over 10% in 2000 and 2001. If you went back into the ninties I’d be surprised if the percentages arent higher still.
The figures dont look significantly different but there is a fall nontheless.
Didn’t realise Aintree was 25% that is double anything else, 1 in 4.
Ah, that particular dossier, in which the HRA kept a straight face while exonerating itself by stating, amongst other things, that The Senior Inspector of Courses walked the course at least once every day and "agreed the going was no quicker than Good on all 4 days". The Senior Inspector of Courses is an official of the HRA.
The one I was interested in was the Racing Post’s analysis of fallers by fence at Cheltenham shortly after Granit Jack’s death there. I couldn’t find it on the website but might have been looking under the wrong heading.
Thanks all the same.
Pru, here’s the RP article
HORSES coming to grief at the penultimate fence on the Old course at Cheltenham seem an all-too-familiar sight – who can forget Vinnie Keane hammering the turf in disbelief after Latalomne capsized when leading the Queen Mother Champion Chase in 2003?
In the mind of many racegoers, numerous races have changed complexion at this notorious fence, and the statistics back this up.
Since the start of the 2003-04 season when remedial work was made to the fence, there has been a total of 126 fallers and unseated riders in all chases over the Old course, and a staggering 38 have come to grief at the second-last (final circuit only). That means 30 per cent have come at this fence. Clearly, it is a critical fence, which is not surprising given its proximity to the finish.
Is the major problem the speed at which the horses are travelling? The answer appears to be yes.
In 2m chases, 35 per cent of fallers depart at this obstacle, and over 2m4 1/2 f it climbs to a staggering 44 per cent. However, in races beyond 3m, just 18 per cent fall two from home.
To back up the argument that speed is the major factor, in Class 1 events (contested by better, faster horses) 45 per cent end their race two out, in Class 2 it is 18 per cent and Class 3 and 4, which feature slower and usually less proficient jumpers, 24 per cent.
Jockeys have a big part to play and one might think that inexperienced riders get caught out most often, but this doesn’t seem to be the case. The men who depart most frequently are those who race there most often.
Ruby Walsh has the dubious honour of leading the table with five falls, with Timmy Murphy on four, and Tony McCoy and Richard Johnson on three. On Saturday, Granit Jack’s fall resulted in a fatal injury, but, thankfully, there have only been two other deaths at this fence since 2000
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