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Currently running at 9% strike rate(RP last 14 days)-surely that is poor for this time of year. Is there a problem in the yard or are his horses over rated and not that good?
Intersting to see what happens this week at York.I was thinking this the other day tbh when sir dragonet ran no race whatsoever in what should’ve been a penalty kick
Be interesting to see how constantinople, japan and circus maximus get on tomorrow
I was thinking that when Hermosa bombed at Goodwood and he didn’t have a very good meeting there generally. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a bug going about although with the size of the place they could probably keep horses from affected barns away from each other on the gallops and in transit so he will likely still have some completely unaffected horses.
When I see more than one horse from a yard flopping I always wish I knew who they were stabled next to!
Think hermosa probably bombed at goodwood because she went way way too fast at the start and had nothing left to give
Another poor ride from ryan this year
Although the prominent runners went a little too fast in the Nassau it was nowhere near enough to explain Hermosa’s performance. Beaten before entering the straight and yet the horse who actually front run – Mehdaayih – was only beaten in the final yards (a good second). There was definitely something wrong with Hermosa that day. Indeed, Ryan Moore deserves credit. Helped the horse’s chance of running again this season by easing off earlier than many jockeys would.
Value Is EverythingSir Dragonet was reappearing after a long time off. Too long for it to be normal… And this top class racehorse came back in a Group 3. If he was fully fit would’ve come back in a Group 1, so no surprise he was beaten.
Value Is EverythingYou could of told that before the race Ginge, we could of all layed it at 1/3
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Surprised Timeform still have a star for AOB being in good form. imo Judged by each horse’s price/expected position it is not as bad as 9% sounds. Many were double figure prices and I think only 3 odds-on (including Sir Dragonet). Not exactly in poor form but imo fair to say is in worse form than he usually is. One reason why I backed against Constantinople. Although plenty are in the second tier, doesn’t have many real stars this year, best three horses all run this week, Ten Sovereigns, Japan and Magical… And even then against Battaash, Crystal Ocean and Enable – none of his three should imo be favourite.
Value Is EverythingAlthough on previous form had 10+ lbs in hand, Nathan; always a good chance of Sir Dragonet being below form and unexposed rivals improving too. Personally, I’d have expected him to be around 4/6 which (taking out a bookies mark up) would mean him having around a 58% chance of winning and therefore 42% chance of losing. So no surprise he lost. Was he ever 1/3? SP 4/9.
Even if the 4/9 SP was a good representation of his true chance, taking the mark up off would be around a fair 67% chance of winning and 33% – a fair 2/1 chance of losing. Can not be a surprise that (adding a mark up) a bookie’s 15/8 shot “won”, ie not Sir Dragonet. 15/8 shots win all the time in horse racing. No surprise Sir Dragonet lost.
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