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“If he’s so weak how did he…lead them to a rare Labour election victory.”
The outcome of the 2024 General Election was due to the old adage of governments losing elections rather than oppositions winning them. The key factor was the collapse in the Conservative vote, ensuring the party lost plenty of seats it would usually have won.
There was no great surge in popularity for Labour. In 2019, Corbyn’s party polled a fraction over 32% of the vote. Under Starmer, the share increased by only 1.6%. That was a very low percentage on which to win an election but the low turnout ensured a large majority under the first past the post rules.
Unfortunately for Starmer, this meant that regardless of his large majority in Parliament, his government was never that popular and started from a weak base. Once the government encountered difficulties as they all do, it didn’t take much for that weak support to ebb away.
Now there are opinion polls showing the government on 15% and Starmer’s personal ratings are through the floor. Given those circumstances, it is no great surprise that lots of Labour MPs would prefer to see a change. Otherwise they are going down to certain defeat.
There was no great surge in popularity for Labour. In 2019, Corbyn’s party polled a fraction over 32% of the vote. Under Starmer, the share increased by only 1.6%. That was a very low percentage on which to win an election but the low turnout ensured a large majority under the first past the post rules.
Yet people still defend this ludicrous system.
A lot depends on turnout. Corbyn’s party actually polled more votes in both 2017 and 2019 than Starmer’s party did in 2024 but the low turnout meant Starmer was able to not only win but win with a huge majority.
It seems clear that a lot of people who voted Conservative in 2017 and 2019 either voted for Reform in 2024 or (more likely) stayed at home.
A few more firms have priced up the by-election. The best prices now are 11/10 Reform, 11/8 Green, 5/1 Labour.
The bookmakers clearly believe Labour has less chance now that Burnham is not being allowed to stand.
That’s mere supposition on your part.
How do we know what the prices would have been had Burnham been standing? 🤷♂️
A RWNJ pseudo academic who believes in the Great Replacement Theory
How people actually believe this tripe is quite beyond me.
“That’s mere supposition on your part.
How do we know what the prices would have been had Burnham been standing?”
I already posted that Labour were quoted at 2/1 on Sunday night, just after the news Burnham had been blocked. They have now drifted out to 5/1.
Do you really think they would be that price if Burnham was the candidate? Or that Burnham would risk giving up being Mayor to try to win a seat in which he was third favourite?
That’s not the question I asked. The 2-1 was on offer AFTER it was known Burnham would not be standing.
Labour were 4/9 when Burnham was still in the running.
PRESS RELEASE: Greens favourites to win Gorton and Denton after Labour snub Burnham
Thank you for supplying evidence to support your argument. If only you had done that in the first place…
Getting back to the more important matter, it speaks volume that a clear racist bigot is favoured to win the by-election. Does that reflect that the “silent majority” of voters are also racist bigots?
And isn’t the huge drift in Labour’s odds a sad indictment of the fact that politics is nowadays to be more about personality than policy?
Reform’s campaign in Gorton and Denton hasn’t got off to an auspicious start..
Polly Toynbee has written in “The Guardian” that Starmer’s political demise is inevitable.
Given that you can set your watch about Toynbee being wrong about everything, he must now be long odds on to make it through to 2029.
Starmer should follow Carney and ensure our defence does not rely on the USA. This means (with Europe) manufacturing our own aircraft and drones But to give him his due he is off to China to improve our relations with that country.
This is far more rational than the nonsense spouted by the Tory leader who believes in USA propaganda that says Communism is evil. The reality is that ‘communism’ means commune, where everbody helps each other, as against the ‘every man for himself’ attitude.
That doesn’t stop China being a capitalist country. They allow their citizens to start and operate their own companies.
We must stop seeing China is a threat. Unlike the USA they have never bombed another country for no reason, Vietnam and Iraq being examples. Rather than waste money on wars, China spends money on infrastructure.
So we should take Carney’s pragmatic approach and if that is what Starmer is doing we should be conmend him.
An example of why the true left dislike this government:
it always makes me laugh when the RWNJ element describe Starmer’s government as “socialists”: they are anything but.
30p Lee really is the dogshit on the shoe of politics , how did such an inept stupid individual get so high up in politics , a point worth making is while Nigel has been able to push the reform nobodies around he won’t be able to do similar with the new Tory hasbeens , there’s egos there , great big ones , Nigel may get regret this …
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
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