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Is it a good idea to back one horse to win two races at the festival Gord?
There is NO chance he’ll win both races; so to get the true prices taken a punter needs to add the stakes of the two races and divide by profit made.
e.g. I don’t know the prices and stakes you took Gord, but say a punter backed the SAME horse to win both Ryanair and Gold Cup like this:£5000 @ 14/1 on the Ryanair for potential winnings of £70,000 – £3000 losses of the Gold Cup for an over all profit of
£67,000
(returning £75,000)
£3000 @ 25/1 on the Gold Cup for potential winnings of £75,000 – £5000 losses of the Ryanair for an over all profit of
£70,000
(returning £78,000).
So the prices taken are not 14/1 and 25/1 at all. They’re effectively Ryanair 8.375/1 or Gold Cup 8.75/1.Are my maths s*it Gord? How did you work out those @ 22/1 and 12.5/1?
Let’s simplify things and get rid of the three zeros:
Ryanair:
5 X 14/1 = 70
70 – 3 (that is lost on Gold Cup) = 67 profit on the horse
Total invested is 5 (Ryanair) + 3 (Gold Cup) = 8
So 67 ‘/, 8 = 8.375
ie Total invested 8, producing a profit on the horse of 67 means the price taken is effectively 8.375/1.Gold Cup:
3 X 25/1 = 75
75 – 5 (that is lost on the Ryanair) = 70 profit on the horse
Total invested 5 + 3 = 8
So 70 ‘/, 8 = 8.75
ie Total invested 8, producing a profit on the horse of 70 means the price taken is effectively 8.75/1.Where have I "got my maths wrong" Gord?
ie Profit for the Ryanair of £67,000 divided by the over all stake of £8000 means an actual price taken for the Ryanair of 8.375/1 for the horse (not 14/1).
Where as if the horse were to win the Gold Cup instead, it would be £70,000 profit divided by £8000 for an actual price taken of 8.75/1 for the horse (not 25/1)
What’s even more revealing is this is not like being on two individual races at 8.375/1 AND another @ 8.75/1.
It’s effectively ONLY being on ONE horse @ 8.375/1 OR ONLY ONE horse @ 8.75/1, NOT BOTH. Because the two selections won’t both run.
Is it wise to take little more than 8/1 about a 14/1 chance or a little less than 9/1 about a 25/1 shot?
No, you haven’t "explained".
£5k on a 14/1 shot returns £75k agreed?
£3k on a 25/1 shot returns £78k agreed again?If the 14/1 shot wins and the 25/1 shot loses yo have made a profit of £68k…. broke down to £75k minus £8k = £68k…Agreed?
To achieve £68k from £5k you divide it by 12.5 so in effect you have won 12.5 times your stake……Simple!If the 25/1 shot wins and the 14/1 shot loses which is inevitable in this scenario then the £78k returns minus the the £8k layed out leaves £70k! To win £70k from £3k you divide it by 22 which again means you get 22 times your £3k which adds up to 69 so rounded off to a 22/1 winner! Simple really!
Very rarely post on here and prefer reading what others have to say and have thouroughly enjoyed following your threads for a number of years now but I get the feeling that your not a happy camper at the minute??
The National Hunt is now in full flow (your bread and butter) and i havent seen much in the way of intrest from yourself recently. Is it a case of the wet weather bringing bottomless ground that is putting you off??
Anyway I hope to see some more of your intresting thoughts soon and that this thread can get a
P.S – Anyone seen Fist????Well that didnt take too long did it – nice one fella! Some more of that came from please.
Had a few winners myself today so a pleasing weekend all round.
….Then me football team get drawn Manchester United in the first round of the cup!!
£5k on a 14/1 shot returns £75k agreed?
£3k on a 25/1 shot returns £78k agreed again?
If the 14/1 shot wins and the 25/1 shot loses yo have made a profit of £68k…. broke down to £75k minus £8k = £68k…Agreed?
To achieve £68k from £5k you divide it by 12.5 so in effect you have won 12.5 times your stake……Simple!
You’ve taken the whole stake of 8k from the Return to find the profit (Agreed), but you also need to divide that profit by thewhole 8k
stakes Gord.
There is NO chance of the horse winning both races, therefore when calculating the EFFECTIVE odds taken, the stakes for this horse
to win a race at Cheltenham
(Ryanair 5k + Gold Cup stakes 3k) must be taken in to account. So the 67k must be divided by the whole stake of
8k
and NOT the 5k as you suggest.
Profit on the horse 67k ‘/, Stakes on the horse 8k = effective odds of 8.375/1.
If the 25/1 shot wins and the 14/1 shot loses which is inevitable in this scenario then the £78k returns minus the the £8k layed out leaves £70k!
To win £70k from £3k you divide it by 22 which again means you get 22 times your £3k which adds up to 69 so rounded off to a 22/1 winner! Simple really!8k Stakes to win 70k
. The 70k profit comes from gambling a stake of 8k on the horse.
When you know for certain the horse will ONLY run in ONE of the two races, you’ve got to includeAll
the stakes on the horse in calculations to come to effective odds. The 70k profit MUST be divided by the WHOLE stake on the horse of
8k
. 70 ‘/, 8 =
effective odds of 8.75/1.
Value Is EverythingGord any thoughts on the way my ARVIKA won today he had it sewn up halfway he did never in doubt.He be dropped back in trip and train for the arkle.SIMONSIG apart no horse will get to him.
Good shout on Arvika Darren, looked immense. I’m with you, looks speedy enough to be an Arkle horse to me.
Maths, maths, maths, maths, maths & more maths.
There really are simpler ways of expressing things.
I’m a simple man who likes to keep things simple.
If First Lieutenant does not win either race at the fetsival how much is lost?
£8k – therefore that is the stake.I thank you.
Maths, maths, maths, maths, maths & more maths.
There really are simpler ways of expressing things.
I’m a simple man who likes to keep things simple.
If First Lieutenant does not win either race at the fetsival how much is lost?
£8k – therefore that is the stake.I thank you.
Trouble is Eliwallach, Gord doesn’t understand simple maths and needs to be talked through things. Then again, if I said the Earth was round Gord wouldn’t believe me; so you might get through to him where I can’t.
What makes it worse Gord, is you’ve backed First Lieutenent each way for at least one of the two races, so losing even more of the "value"!
Value Is EverythingGord any thoughts on the way my ARVIKA won today he had it sewn up halfway he did never in doubt.He be dropped back in trip and train for the arkle.SIMONSIG apart no horse will get to him.
Good shout on Arvika Darren, looked immense. I’m with you, looks speedy enough to be an Arkle horse to me.
Arvika is definately a good horse, but will he make it to Cheltenham? Will be 8 years old in March and only 8 races to his name. Quite a lot of time on the sidelines, can’t be that sound and not really an ante-post horse (imo).
Value Is EverythingGinge i understand what you mean but Sizing was a 8yo when he won arkle so age not a problem.Yes he had injuries he was my Arkle horse a few years ago but got injured then had FINNIANS RAINBOW who came 2nd.I think he is over these injuries and trainer has proved with HURRICANE FLY who missed big races at Cheltenham that he can get them ready for big races when they had problems.
Gord i think Tommy will give you some now after you saying that about The Dedigout because this was Tommy horse to follow it was
Also gord my Arvika will have no problems with drop back to 2m and ground as well. if you look at arkle winners like
Sizing Europe and Forpaddytheplaster both horses were thought of needing further but still both won the arkle. this horse in same envelope.Simonsig apart no horse will beat him.In my world
Arvika Ligeonieree
should have been fav Darren,I’ve said before this ‘Dedigout’ is nothing special
Got that right Darren
He’s not ‘special’ but he’s a very good horse. At the start of the season I said I fancied him to be Gigginstown’s leading staying novice and that opinion hasn’t changed. Sword Of Destiny is the other obvious one, he has less experience but perhaps more potential. I think it’ll be another year before we see the best of him.Ginge i understand what you mean but Sizing was a 8yo when he won arkle so age not a problem.Yes he had injuries he was my Arkle horse a few years ago but got injured then had FINNIANS RAINBOW who came 2nd.I think he is over these injuries and trainer has proved with HURRICANE FLY who missed big races at Cheltenham that he can get them ready for big races when they had problems.
Darren, it is not Arvika’s age itself that I’d be worried about, it’s the number of races he’s had in those 8 years.
Coming in to this season Arvika had just 6 runs. At the same age both Sizing Europe and Hurricane Fly had over double that number. That gives you an indication that Arvika has been far more prone to physical problems than the two you mention; keeping him off the course for long periods. It is possible Arvika’s problems are behind him, however, with previously unsound horses there’s always a significant chance they’ll resurface. Chance of making it to Cheltenham needs to be taken in to account when assessing whether a horse’s price is worth taking ante-post. So although on form may be a good bet, previous unsoundness makes (imo) the price not worth taking. Hope I am wrong Darren.
Value Is EverythingJust been looking at the ‘Becher Chase’ on Saturdays Aintree card and I need to look no further than last years winner
West End Rocker
,this fellow won me over when me and ‘Fisty’ were having one of our little ‘tet ar tets’ as we say in France,I think it was the Warwick chase he won that day for me and on soft ground over a trip he’s a decent sort,I have to tip my cap to Alan King for managing to get him back down to a very winnable mark!!
Having won last years race off 137 and being raised a horrible 12lbs to 149,in only 3 runs he’s back down to 142,most unusual!!Anyway I’m not mincing about with this one as I know this horse can jump around Aintree on Soft ground,different ball game altogether on a faster surface mind but at the incredible odds of 9/1,he should be 9/2fav in my world this fellow is a cast iron bet,so much so that I the King of Foresight and Robber of Big prices has gone in hard! There’s no way this fellow goes off at 9/1……..NO WAY,I’m taking the chance and its based on Professional thinking that ‘West end Rocker’ had a Pipeopener for this around Wincanton the other week to put him right for what could be his only real opportunity this year.What with Choc fit this year to take the ride I make him my Banker of the Weekend.Bullish words about a horses chance in a race he could easily fall at the first in I know but hey I’m full of Bull! West End Rocker
£200 e/w 9/1 Bet365 Becher Chase.
£10483What with Choc fit this year to take the ride I make him my Banker of the Weekend. Bullish words about a horses chance in a race he could easily fall at the first in I know but hey I’m full of Bull!
West End Rocker
£200 e/w 9/1 Bet365 Becher Chase.
If I were you Gord, I’d be hoping Choc does NOT get the ride on WER.
Wayne 4 wins from 7 rides on the horse.
Choc 0 wins from 13.In my opinion Choc is better in a finish than Wayne, but Wayne is under-rated and better "out in the country". It may well be Choc doesn’t get on as well with West End Rocker; a horse who tends to either win or run poorly. Suspect it’s a matter of getting WER interested early on in his races, something WH is good at.
Value Is EverythingWhat with Choc fit this year to take the ride I make him my Banker of the Weekend.
I like WER a lot for this Saturday but in all honesty I’d rather see Hutch get the ride. He seems to get on with the horse a lot better don’t you think? In fact I’m pretty sure Choc’s never won on him
"Great minds think alike" Bozlike.
Ha only just noticed that you’d posted above me Ginge, before that I thought you were just agreeing
Price seems to have contracted across the board, 7/1 in most places now!
I still think there’s life in Hello Bud at the grand old age of 14, 16/1 is a decent each way bet I think from a lowly mark.
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