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Thats about the first time I haven’t finished reading a post on here.
I started to read old Gingers drivel about a horse I’m really not interested in, ‘Circumcision’ or something I think its called but as per usual he has to go on and on an on.If it makes you feel better Ginge I’ll apologise for rounding off my decimal points to the nearest furlong as in the Scheme of things it really has no bearing on whether Telescope
will win the Derby or not.Yet again it shows the intense study the Ginger one puts into his work but I’m afraid just because 2 horses are related doesn’t mean they will run up to each others mark,you only have to look at ‘Frankel’ and his full brother ‘Noble Mission’ to realise they were like Chalk and Cheese so waffle on all you like
about how "’Telescope’ willpossibly
rather than
probably
get the Derby trip"!
Dont commit yourself though will you! 
Anything for Dubai this year Gord?
I like Sole Power at 8’s. This Shea Shea won well the last time but already had a previous spin, Sole Power was not disgraced in defeat with Johnny M not going full tilt and should improve for it.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
but I’m afraid just because 2 horses are related doesn’t mean they will run up to each others mark,you only have to look at ‘Frankel’ and his full brother ‘Noble Mission’ to realise they were like Chalk and Cheese so waffle on all you like
about how "’Telescope’ willpossibly
rather than
probably
get the Derby trip"!
Dont commit yourself though will you! Exactly Gord, "just because 2 horses are related doesn’t mean they will run up to each other". It’s just something else to think about when considering whether a horse will stay and why (no matter what you say) it is impossible (in reality) to commit 100% to a horse like Telescope staying the Derby trip. But it is also often neccessary to look a bit more closely in to results than the outdated – won at trip therefore best at that trip – mentality.
Breeding is just one thing a punter must consider when apraising stamina requirements; another is temperament. Frankel was an enthusiastic horse (especially at two and three), wanting to get on with things – so unlikely to stay as far as breeding suggests. Where as full brother Noble Mission is a lazy sxd, likely to stay further than breeding suggests.
Telescope himself has taken a bit of a hold in both races to date at 7f and 1m. However, at this stage it is best to put this exuberance down to inexperience/greeness and will probably grow out of it. If it turns out to be "temperament" rather than greenness he’ll struggle to stay the Derby trip… Temperament is another reason why it is impossible to commit 100% at this stage to stamina requirements…
Not that a punter needs to be 100% certain to back a horse for a race. As always, if he/she thinks the price is worth taking a chance – then back it.
Value Is Everythingso waffle on all you like
about how "’Telescope’ willpossibly
rather than
probably
get the Derby trip"!
No Gord, in my opinion Telescope will
"probably"
rather than
"possibly"
get the Derby trip. At this stage I’d put it at around 60/40 in his favour of doing so. Which is why I said Telescope had a "good chance of staying the Derby trip, but not absolutely certain to do so".
Value Is EverythingGinger i am on TELESCOPE at 40/1 to win derby i am.And in last 5 years up to the derby a lot of horses have been doubted on getting 1m4 i remember some saying Camelot would not get 1m4.
Same over STS and New Approach though did New Approach really stay a 1m4 as i remember lot of people saying because they did not go a strong pace his stamina was not tested.And also he did not run in a 1m4 race again like King george or arc.Also gord am no breeding expert but was Cape blanco related to a sprinter Paris house.And that horse won big races over 1m4 ok only irish derby but won at 1m2 as well.
Also gord am no breeding expert but was Cape blanco related to a sprinter Paris house.And that horse won big races over 1m4 ok only irish derby but won at 1m2 as well.
Bloody hell darren you’ve got me there,I have no idea if the 2 are related.I do know
Paris House
is a son of my all time favourite sprinter,the legendary
Petong
who too was a 5-6f specialist.
Cape Blanco
is a son of the mighty
Galileo
but whether there is a bloodline connection through their Dams I dont know.
Ginger i am on TELESCOPE at 40/1 to win derby i am.And in last 5 years up to the derby a lot of horses have been doubted on getting 1m4 i remember some saying Camelot would not get 1m4.
Same over STS and New Approach though did New Approach really stay a 1m4 as i remember lot of people saying because they did not go a strong pace his stamina was not tested.And also he did not run in a 1m4 race again like King george or arc.You’ve got good value there Darren, 40/1 is certainly a price I’d be willing to take a chance on Telescope’s stamina for. There are indeed often stamina doubts about Derby runners. Must admit I had some about New Approach getting the trip, though always on the cards Camelot would be suited by it.
Value Is EverythingAlso gord am no breeding expert but was Cape blanco related to a sprinter Paris house.And that horse won big races over 1m4 ok only irish derby but won at 1m2 as well.
Laurel Delight, the dam of Cape Blanco was a half sister to Paris House Darren. Both Laurel Delight and Paris House being out of Foudroyer.
Value Is EverythingThe Lincoln will take some getting in heavy ground and a battler could be required so step forward Swiftly Done. Will stay on well and finish the race off better than most, at 25s a very good EW chance and I’m sure he will go off 16s or lower
TAPK legendary fearless Punter with nerves of steel has been accused of bottling out,regarding my Ante-Post bets on
My Tent or Yours
.I feel the accusation is a bit harsh and hindsight certainly proves I sensed a ‘Predire une Catastrophe’ simply because the stats suggested as much.I dont care for such but History has certainly shown the ‘Supreme’ is a Graveyard for Favs!
I played a situation to my benefit and I did the sensible thing by laying the horse prior to the event,simply because the prices told me too.I felt guilty doing such a thing but I was adamant I wasn’t going to back anything against my horse and didn’t,had I chose 3 other horses to play against MTOY I still wouldn’t have picked the Winner ‘Champagne Fever’ so again I justified my decision.However as much as I had on this years ‘Supreme’ runner up,I have taken this years 2000gns to a different level,inDawn Approach
I have a horse who will go to Newmarket with me brimming with confidence and yet for all the ticks in the right boxes this fellow gets from me I still see
Cristoforo Colombo
as his main danger,I saw enough from last years Coventry Stakes to tell me that the first 3 home will be the first 3 home in the 2000gns.
Olympic Glory
at 16/1 is now the e/w bet of the race for those wanting to play closer to the big day as he did nothing wrong all year and did nothing but boost the Coventry form,many so called astute judges were quick to write off ‘Cristoforo’ last year but I never lost the faith in the colt once,he is so much like his Father who incidentally was written off at 2 but was heavily backed again as the 2000gns approached,Like
Henrythenavigator
this fellow will be a different horse on proper fast ground,whatever he does in the Guineas,he wins the St James Palace Stakes.If all the main protagonists stand there ground,horses like
Ghurair
,
Reckless Abandon
,
Moohaajim
,
Toronado
,
Dundonell
etc,then we’re in for a Classic,Classic! I
should
be thinking of Laying my horse at around the 2/1,7/4 mark for obvious reasons but because I have 2 serious horses in ‘Cristoforo’ and ‘Olympic Glory’ at big double figure prices also running for me I’d get more satisfaction letting ‘Dawn Approach’ run for me too without bottling out!
Don’t listen to any of them mate, majority of doubters are jealous and unsuccessful!!!
As you know i had the race covered with Jezki EW at large prices and then MTOY EW mainly at 16s but with some 20s and 12s also however unlike you rather than lay them both I listened to Ted Walsh, Ruby and McCoy and backed Champagne Fever at 9s with the free betoption
Don’t listen to any of them mate, majority of doubters are jealous and unsuccessful!!!
As you know i had the race covered with Jezki EW at large prices and then MTOY EW mainly at 16s but with some 20s and 12s also however unlike you rather than lay them both I listened to Ted Walsh, Ruby and McCoy and backed Champagne Fever at 9s with the free betoption
No problem Gary I love a bit of ‘rufty tufty’!:lol:
Tell me what your thoughts are onJezki
? His run in the ‘Supreme’,his potential to develop further,his Champion hurdle chances,him not running this year etc.Cheers.
He was beaten fair and square but didn’t jump the last at all, looks a lovely prospect for next year and the 2015 Champion Hurdle!! I cannot have a 5yo winning CH again for ages! I can see him winning at Punchestown and then being put away and his campaign geared solely to the CH. next years race is already looking a cracker
I’ve taken a chance and started backing Big Bucks for the World Hurdle and then with 2 others in trixies, summat to hope for, id love him to come back and win after this lay off!
Spitfire is fancied to go well tomoz and at 8s or bigger can be backed EW in 420 Southwell where he shines over 6f
Gord how you think this TORONADO will do at 3 am sure you remember me saying to you after maiden win that he is there top 2yo.He not win at Newmarket but be a danger at Epsom.
Also you see IMPERIAL MONARCH running at 2m at meydan this week could he be there ascot gold cup horse in 2013.
And sad that PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE got injured am on his stablemate
ON HIS OWN at 20s so happy i got that but PDB was my main fancy.You cant knock
Toronado
Darren,he has a grittiness associated with his sire,the more you look at the Champagne Stakes the more you become aware that
Dundonell
was never going to get past him.I believe as 3yo’s this pair will still be closely matched,I might just favour the latter as the scopier of the 2 though.On a line through another ‘New approach’ colt,
Tha’ir
you could argue that both the above colts have solid e/w chances against
Dawn approach
, I personally believe that
Olympic Glory
is the best Hannon 3yo even though again collateral form says there’s not much between them.What seperates all
Dawn approaches
challengers for this years 2000gns from the big chestnut himself is that none of them have anywhere near the scope for improvement,I’m a firm believer that this fellow is what you would call a slow learner and every race I’ve seen him run in from March to October last year I’ve seen a slow but upward curve in his progression.What could be against him is very fast ground and a horse called
Cristoforo Colombo
,we’ve still not seen the real horse yet but he’ll show an electric turn of foot at the furlong pole to go 2 clear of ‘Dawn Approach’ who wont quicken instantly as he has a laziness about him,Kevin Manning will probably get a whip ban but it will be worth it as his mount will take a fair amount of stoking but the harder he is on ‘Dawn’ the more response he’ll get and he will be flying by the time he hits the line.Take out ‘Cristoforo’ and granted softer ground
Dawn Approach
will win comfortably!
Imperial Monarch
is the new
Age of Aquarius
but I’ve said that before so he’s right at the top of my Gold cup horses too Darren,he’ll stay alright mate!
As for the Grand National,I’m afraid I still feel sick watching my 40/1 shot get mugged on the line last year and have backed him again for this years race at 25’s down.Revenge will be sweet!
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