- This topic has 2,436 replies, 47 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 5 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I’ll try and double my views on your thread from about 2 to 4 a day then Gord…….
Blackbeard to conquer the World
TAPK has a dilemma!
Having lost more Ante-Post money on First Lieutenant
than any other horse this past year due to backing him for the Gold Cup, only for him to take in the Ryanair instead I am asking my fellow contributors of this thread for those not lacking in the feint hearted department to ponder this question,a serious question that needs considered thought before answering………
Boston Bob
is a decent Ante-Post price for next years Gold Cup at 25/1 but is he a Gold Cup horse?,Is he a Ryanair type?,or is his jumping questionable enough to suggest he’s a World hurdler? These questions are fitting for such a horse owned by Graham Wylie as he’s not afraid to ‘juggle’ his horses from Fences to hurdles if he feels the need.Perhaps ‘Boston Bob’ is just too risky a proposition for an Ante-Post wager.Personally I felt it was a risk taking in the RSA on what was only his 3rd run over fences but I know this horse is very well regarded and the RSA was always his target,a target I was convinced he was capable of winning and he very nearly did!
Thanks for your responses in advance as its a tough one this and I appreciate the knowledge of others.
regards,Gord.I don’t know if the above applies to me Gord.
But if I were to having a bet in the Gold Cup right now it would be Boston Bob in the Gold Cup @ 25/1. Absolutely no doubt in my mind he’ll be far better suited to a Gold Cup than Ryanair. Just need to look how he was pushed along (outpaced) in the RSA before coming back on the bridle. Further he went the better he looked. Also needed every yard of 2m5f on soft/heavy to win on penultimate start. However…
Knowing his stable/owner companion Back In Focus is even more of a stayer… Willie Mullins also has Sir Des Champs for the Gold Cup… Yet I can’t think of a Ryanair horse (unless Aupcharlie improves) in the yard.
So is Willie going to want three Gold Cup challengers and nothing in the Ryanair?
Is Wylie going to want two (possibly three if Tidal Bay makes it) Gold Cup horses?May be Boston Bob is another First Lieutenant. Running at a trip below optimum purely because of who else the owner/trainer has in the race.
Value Is Everything"If I were to having a bet in the Gold Cup right now it would be Boston Bob in the Gold Cup @ 25/1. Absolutely no doubt in my mind he’ll be far better suited to a Gold Cup than Ryanair."
Thanks for that reply Ginge but what was the horse doing going to the last in the RSA? Something was bothering him,was it his Jockeys exaggerated urgings? Was he coming to the end of his tether? Did he hit the front too soon and was tying up? Concerns??
I have to say imo Willie Mullins has only 2 Gold Cup horses,’Back in Focus’ is not a Gold Cup horse!"If I were to having a bet in the Gold Cup right now it would be Boston Bob in the Gold Cup @ 25/1. Absolutely no doubt in my mind he’ll be far better suited to a Gold Cup than Ryanair."
Thanks for that reply Ginge but what was the horse doing going to the last in the RSA? Something was bothering him,was it his Jockeys exaggerated urgings? Was he coming to the end of his tether? Did he hit the front too soon and was tying up? Concerns??
I have to say imo Willie Mullins has only 2 Gold Cup horses,’Back in Focus’ is not a Gold Cup horse!I agree with you Gord about Back In Focus. In my opinion he’ll need 3m4f+ (on anything but very soft going) in top company next year. Trouble is, will they find that out before March next year. Possibly keeping him to very soft conditions until March. Therefore conning themselves in to thinking Back In Focus is a Gold Cup horse. If he’s to win a top race it’ll be the Grand National. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the NH Chase winner go for the Irish version next time out. Not fully convinced Wednesday’s race fully showed his superioity. Although "lucky" to win (with Tofino Bay idling badly) in my opinion Back In Focus will be a better horse with more give underfoot. Having said all that… At this point in time second and third, Tofino Bay and Godsmejudge are better Aintree Grand National candidates at this point in time; being sound jumpers.
However, all things considered… I am thinking Boston Bob
is
worth taking a chance at the price of 25/1. Action suggests will be as effective on good ground and will be suited by another couple of furlongs. It’s possible he iddled badly once in front at Cheltenham. Can’t see any other reason why Townend did what he did coming to the last. Being hit so vigorously on the neck is bound to unsetle any horse. Possible Boston Bob thought Townend wanted him to go through the rails. Whatever happened, he’d gone so easily, then rushed right around the outside on the turn. Suppose there is a possibility something has changed with Boston Bob’s temperament; but everything we know about his finishing efforts previously – suggests Boston Bob would’ve gone clear. ie Always been a very strong stayer/finisher.
As long as a heavy fall does not leave its mark (confidence jumping/injury) – is the one novice chaser with a chance of making the grade next year. Anyone heard how he is?
Value Is EverythingHave now backed Boston Bob @ 25/1 and Sir Des Champs @ 8/1 both with William Hills.
Value Is EverythingI’ve taken a different view and have backed Silviniaco Conti as another years experience he will make them all go!
Our Connor can follow Katchit it win CH as a 5yo!
Will JP allow At Fishers Cross to go for the World Hurdle
Gord when you asked if i bet on SDC ew earlier my answer is no. i am not a ew punter only back to win. when i bet on a horse ap i think to myself he not be this price on the day and i think he win it too.
Like betting on the golf 2 of my golf tips this week Garcia who is flopping now.But Jim Furyk who i am on at 25/1 has got a good chance of winning so only a win bet punter.
I’ve taken the 25/1 Gord. The turn of foot Townend produced from the horse around the bend impressed me somewhat, I was not aware he had that kind of ability. He’s still an inexperienced horse and I’d say his claims to next years gold cup were only enhanced by the RSA. His wayward jump at the last robbed us of the chance to see how much gas he had left in the tank to tackle the hill and there’s every chance it was fatigue that contributed to the sloppy jump but having seen that turn of foot you’ll certainly not see his next jockey getting after him so early. I’m willing to take a chance on his stamina to get up the hill although he will have plenty to do to hold off that other Bob! Can’t be afraid of one horse though and it remains to see how he will come back from this seasons success.
I’ve been watching the re-run of the RSA chase today over a dozen times on me Big HD Telly where I can zoom in and I have come to the conclusion that
Boston Bob
hated hitting the front so soon!
Now that should
concern those of us who see him as a Gold cup horse as its telling us there’s a temperament problem. Having gone through his career form its not the first time he’s hung left for hitting the front either,he did it early on one day.What I believe this fellow needs is to be held up,like he was in the RSA but delivered very late,I reckon he needs something to aim for like he did at Leopardstown and what he tried to do in last years Albert Bartlett,albeit a less than inspiring ride from Ruby,compared to an inspired ride from Campbell Gillies, (Brindisi would have been some horse).What ‘Boston Bob’ does have in his favour is the fact he is so lightly raced,compare the 6yo ‘Lyreen Legend’ who as a 6yo has had 15 runs to ‘Bobs’ 5 runs for the same age,as an 8yo he still has plenty improvement to come from a mere 9 runs.’Lord Windermere’ has run a total 12 times and 6 of those over fences again he’s had more experience than the year older ‘Bob’ so I’m totally convinced ‘Boston Bob’is the horse to take out of this years RSA,good that both placed horses are.I wouldn’t touch ‘Hadrians Approach’ again and count myself lucky he got a place this year,as far as Gold Cups go he’s got No chance! If
Boston Bob
was mine I’d train him now for the Hennessey Gold cup at Newbury and work towards a Cheltenham one there after,Graham Wylie will encourage that I’m sure.
Continuing my 2014 Gold Cup appraisal,I find it reassuring that ‘Long Run’ did this years race proud he really is a reliable yardstick,one that could still run a place next year but also one who will find a couple just too good.
Sir des Champs
for as fine a looking horse he is,he was running on the spot at the end of this years race,he obviously doesn’t have endless stamina and I’m not so sure he has speed to burn either,I would confidently expect
Bobs Worth
to beat the above pair again,on any ground.I just felt as though ‘SDS’ had his limitations exposed,he’s had 16 runs now and I just feel we’re seeing his level of ability,admittedly he’s only a 7yo and has the size to develop further but at the prices I cant be tempted with 8/1,now if he was 12/1 I’d encourage at least a saver and I wouldn’t put his loyal supporters off as I really do like the horse and am convinced he’s better on Good ground! What encourages me most about putting up
Boston Bob
at 25/1 as a Gold Cup horse is the fact I really dont see Graham Wylie having another Gold Cup horse in his colours and that has proved to be a problem with singling out a Gigginstown horse as there are more to choose from.I do believe next year
First Lieutenant
will run in the Gold cup though as apart from getting the tactics completely wrong he proved to be very one paced in the Ryanair.
I’ve spent the past hour going through what video I can source for this years Lincoln entries and unfortunately I haven’t been able to see this
Lahaags
Nottingham run as one of the stalls handlers got injured and there was a delay to the race so the Sporting life dont have it.A phone call later to one of the lads who did see the race suggests this fellow is a proper beast of a horse and looks like a typical Gosden/Lincoln sort.I’m not seeing that myself as his York win afterwards was that of just an average handicapper,I know he’s a gelding but was he before or after his 3yo campaign? If he’s been done since then I have to respect that he maybe a bit more complying,his tail swishing was a concern though.Anyway I’ve had to have a saver on this ‘beast’ as me and John Gosden have a bit of Lincoln History that still leaves a sour taste and if he thinks he’s having my pants down again????????
Of course if he takes Lahaag
out at the last minute and runs
Eshtibaak
instead he will have shafted me yet again!
I hope ‘The Captain’ beats them all!Lahaag
£50 e/w 10/1 Ladbrokes. Lincoln.
£8659I have my Rsa horse for next year already and Rule the world is my 2nd choice but 1st on my list is another gigginstown horse.
I haven’t seen Bright new dawn in the flesh yet,but on the T.v he looks an absolute top staying chaser in the making and,i’m contemplating backing him for the RSA already!If you get a chance TAPK have a look at his races and see what you think(i doubt you’ll put me off him if you don’t fancy him but you might give me a bit more confidence if you do)
You have come round to my 2 fancies for the Lincoln Gord
I’ve backed Lahaag to win and Chapter Seven EW, my dark horse is Hit the Jackpot from the very capable David Omeara.
I have my Rsa horse for next year already and Rule the world is my 2nd choice but 1st on my list is another gigginstown horse.
I haven’t seen Bright new dawn in the flesh yet,but on the T.v he looks an absolute top staying chaser in the making and,i’m contemplating backing him for the RSA already!If you get a chance TAPK have a look at his races and see what you think(i doubt you’ll put me off him if you don’t fancy him but you might give me a bit more confidence if you do)
I’m not going to put you off
Bright New Dawn
Fran as a Chaser as he’s always looked like anything he did over hurdles was going to be a bonus but I wouldn’t compare him to
Rule the world
,he is a proper Grade 1 horse who oozes Class.I like your fellows breeding as his sire
Presenting
is a particular fav of mine,he arches his back beautifully when he jumps,he has the build of a Chaser,plenty size and scope,relatively solid Graded form and still only a 6yo.He does look one paced over 2m but to me he’s never an Arkle horse,I agree that a step up to 3m will suit and would expect a 33/1 quote for the RSA. with both
Un Atout
and
Rule the World
going novice chasing next year picking the correct target could be troublesome though. You could place one of the above three in an Arkle, Jewson and RSA,thats the problem!
You have come round to my 2 fancies for the Lincoln Gord
I’ve backed Lahaag to win and Chapter Seven EW, my dark horse is Hit the Jackpot from the very capable David Omeara.
Er No Gary,I’ve backed the tail swisher because its Gosdens and would give ‘Chapter Seven’ an equal chance just on the pairs form ties! I am firmly on the side of one horse and thats the ‘Captain’,I see he’s taking more money,7/1 now!
Popped up to Doncaster this morning for a quick recce and the ground is Soft,soft soft,there’s no good in it.I want it to stay Soft,I dont want it turning sticky so I hope we get a bit more rain.If it warmed up slightly and stayed dry from now to Saturday,Doncaster would still get Good ground,thats how quick it dries up there.
Captain Bertie
will handle Gd/Sft but it definitely slows the others down if its really soft whereas he goes through it easily.I’m not having this "I’m a William Haggas horse so must have a chance ‘Nine Realms" at all,I just cant see where he’s coming from with that one,he’d have to be Darker than Dark,although I’m told he did have a St James Palace entry as a 3yo!
I have spoken to a couple of my ‘Nottingham boys’ who do like this Tail swishin beast of Gosdens,so I have to respect their opinion,I know ‘Expresso Star’ won a handicap at Nottingham too before taking the Lincoln as a 4yo!!
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.