A Good Big ‘Un versus a Good Little ‘Un

[Glenn]

Hypothetical situation: you have a population of horses of similar ability that race each other under varying conditions and over varying courses. You are given only one piece of information about each horse – it’s bodyweight on January 1st (note this is a static value, you don’t get to see how this weight varies race to race) How do you bet?

Are there any race conditions, climatic conditions, pace scenarios etc where the larger horses are favoured or vice versa?

[LD73]

The course might be a big factor to consider.

If you have a big horse then they would most likely be a long striding type that might be better suited to a strong pace on a more galloping flatter track with a decently long home straight (i.e. York, Newbury or Doncaster etc) rather than say a course like Chester or even Ascot (with its 2.5F home straight) which might compromise a big horse that takes a while to get organised and find top gear.

A bigger horse may also (by and large) be more inconvenience by quick ground whereas a smaller horse might be more nimble/adaptable in a big field of runners and be able to find and take smaller gaps because of it.

Of course there are always exceptions to the above but they would be things I would be looking at.

[Glenn]

The field size angle is an interesting one. My memory is a bit hazy, but I seem to recall Nick Mordin tipping up horses that did well in large field handicaps and citing their larger size as a cause – bigger horses less likely to get crowded out/intimidated.

[LD73]

Yeah but then you get some smaller horses that like being in amongst the hustle and bustle of a big field race.

[Author]

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