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I think I might win if you consider Jac’s competition on three horses on a Saturday!! LOL
So far ZERO winners!!He says “Can’t be good for the sport – Big field handicaps aren’t supposed to be easy to work out but they have become impossible. I doff my hat to anyone who found 50-1 winner Stamp Hill at Ascot yesterday”.
I don’t know that there is evidence to support Tom’s view. I think some of the big northern training operations (Fahey, Johnston for example) are very difficult to get to grips with from a punting perspective. They run their horses hard and often and throw lots of darts and it can be very tricky working out which of those darts are sharp (Fahey’s Stamp Hill being a case in point).
But I’m not sure that generally speaking it’s particularly any harder these days. The average winning SP for handicaps worth >£25k in the last five years is –
2012 10.9/1
2013 11.59/1
2014 11.06/1
2015 9.47/1
2016 9.4/1So, is some respects you could argue such races have become more predictable (if taking the market as a guide). The data certainly doesn’t suggest, as Tom implies, that longer priced, un-findable winners are becoming more prevalent.
Regarding Pricewise, Tom does what he is asked to do, highlight horses at prices that are too long. He’s been consistently successful at that over a long period. From a punting perspective following them is difficult as catching the price is hard and getting a reasonable amount on equally difficult. Quoting his profit/loss to advised prices illustrates Tom’s expertise at spotting out of line prices but is a bit misleading I feel as it’s very much a ‘paper’ exercise and achieving those paper profits would be very difficult in practice. Equally, quoting his performance at SP
is unfair as his selections are often punted/shortened to prices that end up poor value at SP. I’d judge Tom on the advised prices but you can’t really judge Pricewise the same way, if you know what I mean.One thing though is that both he and Kealy are good reading and when either or both of them agree with one of my own selections I look on that as a real positive.
I don’t know if anybody follows Ben Linfoot – Value Bet on the Sporting Life website. I like Ben’s way of looking at things and he regularly unearths winners at double figure odds.
He’s a bit behind this year but regularly turns a profit year on year and the market is probably less reactive to his selections (for now) than they would be for a Taylor or Segal pick. The other thing I like is that the website gives full summaries of results for its tipsters.
here’s the value bet profit/loss since inception – here
Linfoot does move the markets as well, Corm, so must have a good following. Londinium tightened up three or four points when he tipped it last night.
he is having a mare of a run (probably all be there) but I do dislike the fact he is moaning,how much harder it is now and knocking the sport in his columns. At times like this you just dust yourself down and keep on doing what your believe is the right thing instead of looking for excuses
Segal is back in form but tomorrow’s tipping is ludicrous.
He recommends Johnny Barnes (general 8/1) at a standout 14/1 with bookmaking giants 188Bet. In practice, that’s a fictional price that will be available for all of 20 seconds (if at all) for pennies. If it wins, no doubt Segal and Millington will be crowing about ‘another’ 14/1 stunner for their man.
The whole concept of ‘Pricewise’ in the Racing Post is horribly outdated in the digital age.
It’s only recommended at 8/1 in my paper young fella.
For future reference LostSoldier3 if a horse is tipped by Segal and best price 14/1 with Corals how much can I expect to get on at the price if I visit my local Corals shop?
Anyone following him this year would be skint.
I started a thread 2 or 3 years ago about Pricewise being well past it’s sell by date but got posters saying how wonderful he was but none of them would follow him with their hard earned
Wise decisions, not that they would have got their bets on for long anyway.Although why now, a bookmaker would want to stop taking bets on his tips when as LostSoldier points out, apart from the occasional winner the bloke couldn’t tip winners to save his life.
Corals must have made a fortune this year from punters following Segal’s tips, think it tells us something about bookmakers these days.
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