76 Blanks

Folks, strap on your betting boots. This is one of those threads that comes along a couple of times a year to which FATE takes an exception. Said FATE will now guarantee Mister Segal a minimum of 3 winners tomorrow…very probably four!

At the prices Tom Segal tips at, he’s always going to have a long losing run now and again.
Although I don’t take any notice of his tips anyway, so it’s possible he’s hit a bad patch. Losing runs hit confidence and lack of confidence can mean you’re subconciously looking at things differently to what you were when successful. I certainly found that the case a few months back. Made my first season’s loss for ages!

At the prices Tom tips at a losing run of 76 is statistically unremarkable, I know he’s had lengthy losing runs before and bounced back.

I was looking to find Kealy’s full record LS – do you know where I can see it?

Nathan Hughes wrote:

All Tom has to do is pick the winner the bookies will do the rest and give him value with a made up price then slash it saying Tom’s tipped it. Would be frustrating for them if the lemmings decide to give Tom a wide berth.

There’s a certain naivety about your views I like, Nathan. However, in interest of fairness…

Tom has no influence on what the morning’s Early Odds are going to be.
In the first hours of the evening before the race Tom recieves the prices from every bookmaker on the Pricewise box. He then goes through the race and comes to a decision which horse/s he believes are value, writes an assessment of the race and sends it to Racing Post HQ.

Tom’s tips get either leaked out of Racing Post Towers by people backing them before they’re known by the general public. Or if not, everyone is informed in the evening bullitin which punters (and bookies) can subscribe to.

There was a time (probably still is) when what Tom tipped/tips dominates Saturday liabilities/trade. Simply because of the combination of big prices and percentage of trade his tips generate/d. ie The amount of trade generated by a Pricewise horse is as much as they’d get from a favourite in a normal race – therefore because of the big prices potential liabilities are so much greater.

Bookmakers have no choice but to shorten his tips in the evening before pushing them out for a short time when “shops open” in the morning… Because only by doing so can they afford to lay the price in the morning. This “shorten, big price, shorten” may be the reason you think prices are just “made up”.

Shortening Pricewise tips in the evening also limits arbers taking advantage by backing a horse which they know is going to shorten (back to lay for an almost no-risk profit). ie Limiting damage arbers can do to the number of punters able to take the price in the morning.

Bookmakers are not giving Tom “made up prices”, Nathan; they’re just reacting to the market (both before and after they know money is going to/has come for the horse. ie Limiting liabilities.

Tom is just a victim of his own success.

Ginge unless you are Tom Segal wearing a ginger wig then you don’t know what goes on behind closed telephone box’s

LostSoldier3 wrote:

I can tell you exactly how it happens.

If Pricewise has a column in the next day’s paper, all firms have a deadline of 4pm the day before to submit their prices for the grids. Segal then has 2-3 hours to study the prices from all firms and write his column before his column is published online and sent to print.

The exchange and the bookies will react to his tips by shortening at 7pm. Then firms who honour their grid prices in the next morning’s Pricewise period will revert to the paper prices for a short time.

Nathan, it must feel like Segal is playing imaginary prices if you’re not awake at the right time but they are available prior to the column and for a small time period in the morning.

Exactly LS.