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Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 43 total)
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  • #1310021
    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1892

    Tom Segal (a.k.a. Pricewise in the Racing Post) has now tipped 76 consecutive losers in his column.

    Is this just variance or is it the end of the road for Pricewise? His four selections on tomorrow’s racing have barely made a ripple in the market, whereas his tips would make compilers take out the shears in the old days.

    With fellow Racing Post tipster Paul Kealy enjoying an astounding year of profit, there must be some pressure on Segal right now.

    #1310025
    Steeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5779

    Folks, strap on your betting boots. This is one of those threads that comes along a couple of times a year to which FATE takes an exception. Said FATE will now guarantee Mister Segal a minimum of 3 winners tomorrow…very probably four! ;-)

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1310026
    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1892

    No doubt Joe. I genuinely feel for Dr Segal – he sounded a bit embarrassed by the whole thing on the Postcast last week.

    Fire up that Eddystone Rock OR Garcia /Royal Birth/Arcanada OR Kings Gift treble, boys!

    #1310031
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26833

    At the prices Tom Segal tips at, he’s always going to have a long losing run now and again.
    Although I don’t take any notice of his tips anyway, so it’s possible he’s hit a bad patch. Losing runs hit confidence and lack of confidence can mean you’re subconciously looking at things differently to what you were when successful. I certainly found that the case a few months back. Made my first season’s loss for ages! :cry:

    value is everything
    #1310030
    Steeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5779

    I forgot he often tips more than one a race – stand by for two dead-heats!

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1310056
    admin
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 766

    At the prices Tom tips at a losing run of 76 is statistically unremarkable, I know he’s had lengthy losing runs before and bounced back.

    I was looking to find Kealy’s full record LS – do you know where I can see it?

    #1310121
    Nathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 23868

    All Tom has to do is pick the winner the bookies will do the rest and give him value with a made up price then slash it saying Tom’s tipped it. Would be frustrating for them if the lemmings decide to give Tom a wide berth.

    Member since March 2008
    #1310158
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26833

    All Tom has to do is pick the winner the bookies will do the rest and give him value with a made up price then slash it saying Tom’s tipped it. Would be frustrating for them if the lemmings decide to give Tom a wide berth.

    There’s a certain naivety about your views I like, Nathan. However, in interest of fairness…

    Tom has no influence on what the morning’s Early Odds are going to be.
    In the first hours of the evening before the race Tom recieves the prices from every bookmaker on the Pricewise box. He then goes through the race and comes to a decision which horse/s he believes are value, writes an assessment of the race and sends it to Racing Post HQ.

    Tom’s tips get either leaked out of Racing Post Towers by people backing them before they’re known by the general public. Or if not, everyone is informed in the evening bullitin which punters (and bookies) can subscribe to.

    There was a time (probably still is) when what Tom tipped/tips dominates Saturday liabilities/trade. Simply because of the combination of big prices and percentage of trade his tips generate/d. ie The amount of trade generated by a Pricewise horse is as much as they’d get from a favourite in a normal race – therefore because of the big prices potential liabilities are so much greater.

    Bookmakers have no choice but to shorten his tips in the evening before pushing them out for a short time when “shops open” in the morning… Because only by doing so can they afford to lay the price in the morning. This “shorten, big price, shorten” may be the reason you think prices are just “made up”.

    Shortening Pricewise tips in the evening also limits arbers taking advantage by backing a horse which they know is going to shorten (back to lay for an almost no-risk profit). ie Limiting damage arbers can do to the number of punters able to take the price in the morning.

    Bookmakers are not giving Tom “made up prices”, Nathan; they’re just reacting to the market (both before and after they know money is going to/has come for the horse. ie Limiting liabilities.

    Tom is just a victim of his own success.

    value is everything
    #1310173
    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1892

    All Tom has to do is pick the winner the bookies will do the rest and give him value with a made up price then slash it saying Tom’s tipped it. Would be frustrating for them if the lemmings decide to give Tom a wide berth.

    Tom’s tips get either leaked out of Racing Post Towers by people backing them before they’re known by the general public. Or if not, everyone is informed in the evening bullitin which punters (and bookies) can subscribe to.

    The next day’s RP is available from 7pm in PDF format online.

    Otherwise yes, although firms including Paddy Power and BetVictor no longer guarantee to lay their grid prices at all in the morning.

    #1310177
    Nathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 23868

    Ginge unless you are Tom Segal wearing a ginger wig then you don’t know what goes on behind closed telephone box’s

    Member since March 2008
    #1310182
    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1892

    Poor old Segal. Looked like he was going to have the forecast there!

    78 blanks.

    #1310193
    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1892

    You called it Joe. Segal is back.

    Just took a TRF thread to open the floodgates!

    #1310197
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26833

    Ginge unless you are Tom Segal wearing a ginger wig then you don’t know what goes on behind closed telephone box’s

    Oh Nathan,
    Tom himself has described how things happen – and when everything he’s said makes perfect logical sense – it’s obvious to me “what goes on”. Just wish it was as obvious to you and all the other conspiracy theorists. ;-)

    value is everything
    #1310207
    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1892

    I can tell you exactly how it happens.

    If Pricewise has a column in the next day’s paper, all firms have a deadline of 4pm the day before to submit their prices for the grids. Segal then has 2-3 hours to study the prices from all firms and write his column before his column is published online and sent to print.

    The exchange and the bookies will react to his tips by shortening at 7pm. Then firms who honour their grid prices in the next morning’s Pricewise period will revert to the paper prices for a short time.

    Nathan, it must feel like Segal is playing imaginary prices if you’re not awake at the right time but they are available prior to the column and for a small time period in the morning.

    #1310217
    Nathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 23868

    “2-3 hours to study the prices” if he says so, it must be true……. :whistle:

    He knows what races are happening prior to the prices becoming available, if it takes him 2-3 hours to study the prices it takes me 2-3 hours to brush my teeth.

    I’m surprised Tom is awake at the right time starring at the grid for that long, he must go to bed and dream about bookie grid bingo, now there’s a game for those that are restricted betting on Tom’s blanks to play on-line

    Member since March 2008
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