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Which is the better bet?
7/4-2/1 Denman to win the Gold Cup
or almost 7/4 the double
Kauto Star 5/6 to win the King George V Chase and Denman 4/9 to win the Lexus.
I think the double is as near a certainty as I have seen this season and bet the double today. I think it’s 7/4 Kauto putting in a clear round as Denman should win in Ireland doing handstands. Only 10 days away and by all accounts both horses are ok.
Anyone think a straight bet on Denman for the GC is a better bet?
I think The Listener is capable of being a big threat to Denman in the Lexus. Kauto Star is the obvious choice in the King George but he (and Exotic Dancer) IMO is better going left handed. Whilst those two have pounds in hand of anything else they are not likely to run to their peak ratings. If something improves then its not beyond the realms of possibility that there could be a surprise.
Something like Aces Four who was a good novice, will love a sharp three miles and if he can dominate he can run well. Our Vic similarly likes a flat three miles and he runs well fresh. Yes he’s a monkey but he’s around a 170 horse at his very best – again capable of running well.
That said I think Kauto will win but would I bet that double? No.
Would I back Denman for the Gold Cup? With Kauto around? No.
Anyone think a straight bet on Denman for the GC is a better bet?
Absolutely not FoF. Personally I would never back a horse at 7/4 ante-post, three months before the event, in a race that they have to jump 20 or so obstacles.
Denman has got to get over his next race, then perhaps another one. He has got to stay sound, he has got to turn up at Cheltenham in top form. He has got to jump a clear round, and not forgetting he has to win if he is to land the odds. (the same can be said of KS by the way).
In my opinion, there are better 7/4 shots on the all weather or in football at least a few times a week
Mike
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Interesting conclusion Flash, though I’m not sure I would agree?
If Denman presses The Listener for the lead, as seemingly is the plan, TL probably won’t stay the full trip, which should make it a stroll in the park for Denman.
While going right-handed might not be ideal for Kauto Star, the sharp 3m, on what looks ever more likely to be decent ground, will be right up his street, and I doubt there is a horse anywhere within 10lb of him in such circumstances.
Wouldn’t bet either ante-post but, this close to the races, there’d be far less certain results and certainly at worse prices.Interesting conclusion Flash, though I’m not sure I would agree?
If Denman presses The Listener for the lead, as seemingly is the plan, TL probably won’t stay the full trip, which should make it a stroll in the park for Denman.
While going right-handed might not be ideal for Kauto Star, the sharp 3m, on what looks ever more likely to be decent ground, will be right up his street, and I doubt there is a horse anywhere within 10lb of him in such circumstances.
Wouldn’t bet either ante-post but, this close to the races, there’d be far less certain results and certainly at worse prices.Fair enough mate I respect your opinion.
I agree with you regarding stamina concerns for The Listener but I disagree with Kauto being ten pounds clear of the likes of Exotic Dancer.
Three miles around Kempton on genuinely good ground puts the emphasis more on speed than stamina, and as such Kauto Star should prove to be in a league of his own – much like he was last year.
Denman facing off against The Listener is a far more intriguing contest, and likely to be the closer run of the two, but it’s hard to imagine the latter coping with what will be a supreme test of staying power.
7/4 (well, it’s almost bang on 13/8 using the prices above) the pair looks a steal.
I suppose the Christmas double is the obvious choice here.
Barring accidents, Kauto Star should take the KG again and with Ruby Walsh confident that The Listener does not truly stay three miles in a true run race, then I would certainly take the risk by doubling up on the Nicholls pair.
However, my options will remain open as far as the Cheltenham Gold Cup is concerned.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Regarding the two Christmas races in question, and the horses concerned, would anyones confidence be slightly tainted by the fact that Ruby will be coming back from a serious injury straight into such high profile races.
I believe he is hoping to ride at the weekend, but am I correct in saying that after Saturday he won’t have a chance to ride until Boxing Day (Kauto Star day)?
Mike
My Christmas double is:
Exotic Dancer 5/1
Beef or Salmon 10/1€10 each way double with Ladbrokes pays back €60 if both are placed.
I’ve just actually read that he won’t be riding until Sunday and that will be at Thurles. So effectively he could have about five or six rides before he gets the leg up on Kauto. Let’s hope he doesn’t fall and aggravate that shoulder.
Mike
Denman is 9/4 for the gold cup on betfair as I write. Quite honestly, I can’t work out why he is a shorter price than Kauto Star.
If I can get 4/9 on Denman on the day of The Lexus, I will be having my biggest bet ever. I don’t see The Listener as much of a threat (inconsistent; jumping can goto pieces if he’s pressed… by Denman?; may not stay if pressed… by Denman?; and even on soft ground, he isn’t quite top class whereas Denman is – so he’ll win anyway), which means its 4/9 for a walkover.
I don’t fancy backing Kauto Star in The King George because he’s definitely looking beatable now, and I don’t want to back him and watch him over 3 miles with the prospect of him hitting a fence or two, and the-will-he-wont-he-come-off-the-bridle-early thing (like at Haydock, which still bothers me).
Amazing difference of opinions.
Personally I agree with Flash that Kauto isn’t 10lbs better than ED…it’s more like 18lbs round Kempton
Kauto uses his acceleration to win his races and it has a much more devastating affect round a course like Kempton, giving the opposition little or no chance of getting back at him. I think he would need to fall to get beaten in the King George.
I have a slight worry with Denman because as if yet no one knows just how good he is.
However I think the plan on how to beat The listener is sound and will be both amazed and disappointed if he can’t win easily. In fact I wish the opposition was stiffer as winning the Lexus may still tell us very little of his Gold Cup chances.As I have a huge bet riding on Kauto for the big double I thought this bet was the logical thing to do as Mr Spock would say.
I am banking everything on Kauto winning the King George and will have done my brains if he loses that race.
If he and Denman both win then I am a mile in front no matter what happens in the Gold Cup.
If Denman loses he wont be winning any Gold Cup and my chances of getting the big double up should increase 6 fold.
All looks good on paper unfortunately these things don’t always go to plan.
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I see Stan James have priced up the King George forecast; 6/1 Kauto Star to beat Exotic Dancer.
Christmas come early – if you can get on?
I don’t know about that reet, especially over 3m, Monet’s Garden and Taranis would look to be just as likely to fill second spot.
Monets Garden showed last year that he doesn’t stay 3m, even around Kempton. I can’t see him being placed.
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