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2yo Super Star?

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 18 total)
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  • #21672
    TheBluesBrother
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1079

    This morning I was compiling my speed figures for Chantilly, and had one of whose WTF moments as I just awarded the fastest 2yo speed figure to any 2yo at this time of year.

    To put it into context how fast this performance was I just compared it against <b>Camelot’s</b> best figure from last season which was <b>81</b> and this 2yo <b>Penny’s Picnic</b> jusr received a speed figure from me of <b>85</b>, which is a group race time.

    I thought that I had made a mistake and rechecked the figures but they were right.

    Penny’s Picture performance was 11 lengths faster that the other 2yo contest won by <b>Cumcuma</b> who speed figure was 47 which made her 38lbs inferior to Penny’s Picture. <!– s:shock: –>:shock:<!– s:shock: –>

    A new super star? I hope so. <!– s:D –>:D<!– s:D –>

    #404457
    LORD OF THE REINS
    Member
    • Total Posts 5

    Hi Blues Brother, Iv followed your posts regarding speed ratings on this forum which inspired me to give the system a bash.Im using a spread sheet set up so that all is needed is the relevent track varient, the winning time of race and distences behind the winners time. I currently have a speed rating for every horse thats ran in all handicap 5,6,7 + 8 furlong race’s. This has proved to be a worth while project showing some glowing rewards ££. I back ‘No Poppy’ at 7/1 winning at Redcar having a speed rating of 83 from Doncaster, another recent, Valmina 7/1 at Bath having a rating of 77 previously from Bath, both big ratings in the class of race.I have put faith into your formula of LB/Length for certain tracks which seems to be working a treat. A few things from what you have posted have me puzzled, firstly your standard times differ from the R.P times,i.e Doncaster 5f R.P 58.0’S, B.B 58.50’s,6F R.P 71.20, B.B 71.40, your standard times seem to be modified? This obviously has a huge effect on the rating figures, another thing I was hoping you could help with is the time/length, iv used 0.2 standard on all my ratings, im pleased with my ratings but finding them to be out to allot of the pro’s, reason can only be to this figure,do you alter your time/length figure dependant on the race distance for your own figures.Your assistance to these queries would be gratefully appreciated, P.S Hows your flat season so far? LORD OF THE REINS.

    #405011
    TheBluesBrother
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1079

    @ LORD OF THE REINS

    Regarding my standard times being incorrect, you must have an old copy of the standard times list, I update my standard times list on a weekly basis, for example I have just updated Navan (IRE) & Wexford (IRE) this morning (see below).

    The Doncaster standard times have just recently been updated by Dave Edwards "Top Speed" and he changed the standard times for both the straight and round 1 mile distances by a second.

    Your question: do you alter your time/length figure dependant on the race distance for your own figures?

    I don’t have to alter my time/length figures, that is why I have different lbs. per length variants for every course and distance and like you I use .2 (1 length) so when the standard time changes so does the lbs. per length variant.

    The reason why your figures would look different to the pro’s like "Top Speed", they do not use my lbs. per length scale, they use their own.

    The most important factor regarding compiling your own speed figures is having accurate going allowances :shock:

    For checking the RP standard times and when they altered, I have a "Times" excel sheet which has the results of 29,000+ races from the past two years, just using the filters you can check every RP standard time + lbs.per length for every racecourse and distance.

    Times: http://tinyurl.com/bvjmkvg

    #405059
    MarkTT
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2802

    If you’re calculating your own speed figures, i guess the correct name might help :wink: – i assume you’re talking about Penny’s Picnic ?

    Is it heading to Ascot, do we know ?

    #405061
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5551

    Blues Brother,

    By any chance did you rate the maiden at Navan yesterday won by Cristoforo Colombo? I thought he looked a really nice type.

    #405066
    MarkTT
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2802

    Blues Brother,

    By any chance did you rate the maiden at Navan yesterday won by Cristoforo Colombo? I thought he looked a really nice type.

    Has to be a Coventry type.

    #405083
    gerryke
    Member
    • Total Posts 14

    Hey Blues Brother just wondering do i need some extra software to open your rating files?cant seem to open them and would really like to

    #405119
    TheBluesBrother
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1079

    Hey Blues Brother just wondering do i need some extra software to open your rating files?cant seem to open them and would really like to

    The ratings are in a .rar file, so you need Winrar of the free utility called 7-zip, you right click on the file and extract.

    http://www.7-zip.org/

    #405120
    TheBluesBrother
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1079

    Blues Brother,

    By any chance did you rate the maiden at Navan yesterday won by Cristoforo Colombo? I thought he looked a really nice type.

    I gave him a rating of

    60

    which is above average for a first run but still 25lbs behind Penny’s Picnic who tops my 2yo list

    Top Ten:

    Chantilly (FR) 30-Apr-12 Penny’s Picnic (IRE)

    85

    Ascot 12-May-12 Cay Verde

    79

    Kempton (AW) 02-May-12 Lyric Ace (IRE)

    79

    Doncaster 19-May-12 Reckless Abandon

    77

    Salisbury 17-May-12 Ask The Guru

    74

    Doncaster 19-May-12 Annunciation

    73

    Chester 09-May-12 All Fur Coat

    73

    Bath 07-May-12 Sign Of The Zodiac (IRE)

    73

    Curragh (IRE) 07-May-12 Move To Strike (IRE)

    73

    Kempton (AW) 02-May-12 Chilworth Icon

    73

    #405160
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5551

    Thanks Blues Brother, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s one of Ballydoyle’s better two year olds this season.

    #405180
    JJMSports
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2033

    Christofer Collumbus looked mightily impressive, 2 year by Henrythenavigator, ran last week.

    Could see him being Coventry bound.

    The Bolger horse Dawn Approach has looked very very good in two runs thus far. Nothing else particularly eyecatching bar the Godolphin filly from yesterday, half sister to Dubawi.

    #405183
    Slowly Away
    Participant
    • Total Posts 401

    Thought the name ‘Penny’s Picnic’ rang a bell……….Mordin gave it a good write up in his column a few weeks ago under the headline ‘Amazing Run by Penny’s Picnic’

    He reckons it’s the best early season 2yo performance for years and ‘a proper group one rating’…………

    #405867
    LORD OF THE REINS
    Member
    • Total Posts 5

    Following confusion regarding R.P standard times being adjusted, I emailed R.P asking why and when this happens, Dave Edward kindly sent a reply explaining that he would :-
    ‘normally update the standard times in time for the start of the Flat season but unfortunately my ever increasing work load meant it was not possible in time for this season.

    Consequently I am updating them as each meeting comes up but hopefully by the end of May they will be finalised once and for all for this year.

    Until then if you allow 3 or 4 days before compiling your own figs any ‘changes’ should be in the system and you will only have to do it once’.

    Hope this is of use to some of you figure folks, I’m updating my figures as I go along e.g.

    Doncaster correction
    5F / 58.50 / 58.00 / 2 ½ LGH / 8.5 POINTS.
    5.140Y / 67.60 / 67.40 / 1 LGH / 3 POINTS.
    6F / 71.40 / 71.20 / 1 LGH / 2.8 POINTS.
    6.110Y / 78.00 / 77.80 / 1 LGH / 2.5 POINTS.
    7F / 85.00 / 74.20 / 4 LGH / 9.5 POINTS.
    8F RND / 97.5 / 96.5 / 5 LGH / 10 POINTS.
    8F SRT/ 98.50 / 97.40 / 6 LGH / 12 POINTS.

    Dave Edwards is sending me a copy of the 2012 standard times once fully completed, I will list these’s on the forum when I receive them

    #405880
    TheBluesBrother
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1079

    Doncaster correction
    5F / 58.50 / 58.00 / 2 ½ LGH / 8.5 POINTS.
    5.140Y / 67.60 / 67.40 / 1 LGH / 3 POINTS.
    6F / 71.40 / 71.20 / 1 LGH / 2.8 POINTS.
    6.110Y / 78.00 / 77.80 / 1 LGH / 2.5 POINTS.
    7F / 85.00 / 74.20 / 4 LGH / 9.5 POINTS.
    8F RND / 97.5 / 96.5 / 5 LGH / 10 POINTS.
    8F SRT/ 98.50 / 97.40 / 6 LGH / 12 POINTS.

    Slight typo on the 7F, 74.20 adjusted time should read

    84.20

    .

    Dave promised me a set of Standard times over a year ago and they never materialised.
    When I spoke with him recently on the phone he again promised to send me a copy.

    The Racing Post do not show any standard times for Ireland, France or Meydan on their website, hence the reason I came up with the "Times" excel sheet.

    All you have to do is use the filters for each course and distance to check if the Standard times have changed recently.

    Times: http://tinyurl.com/bvjmkvg

    #406679
    LORD OF THE REINS
    Member
    • Total Posts 5

    Hi Blues bro, soz about still going on about thses blasted standard times, but what are the july s/t’s for at newmarket 2011? still trying to set myself up correctly. :x

    #406688
    TheBluesBrother
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1079

    Hi Blues bro, soz about still going on about thses blasted standard times, but what are the july s/t’s for at newmarket 2011? still trying to set myself up correctly. :x

    The standard times for the

    Newmarket (July)

    course for July 2011 were:

    5f – 57.50s – 3.48(lbs. per length)
    6f – 70.20s – 2.85
    7f – 82.90s – 2.41
    1m – 96.20s – 2.08
    1m2f – 121.90s – 1.64
    1m4f – 147.20s – 1.36
    1m5f – 160.00s – 1.25

    The standard times for both Newmarket courses have not altered much
    in the past two years.

    #407034
    LORD OF THE REINS
    Member
    • Total Posts 5

    Hi Blues,Thanks for the info you have passed on so far. Looking at your lbs.per length calculations, using the 5F as a example you have a slidding scale of 0 to .40 lb’s that you alter your figure dependant of the tracks standard time, e.g Epsom 54.90/3.64, Pont 61.80/3.24(old times). 1 length at 0.16s = 0.1 lb on your scale. Iv not fully solved the riddle, the mean time of all the 5F tracks is 58.35s, I would of thought this to be your datum giving this time the standard 3.54 lbs.per length,the average times of 58.35 on your scale = 3.43 (.11 lbs out) it appears that 57.00s has been used as your datum (57.00=3.54lbs) ??
    yes correct, I cant sleep tonight :? .I understand if you dont want to assist with this as its your personnel formula. (still had no standard times emailed to me from R.P)

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