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Thought Steinbeck was definitely the one to take out of the race today. He’ll take some beating in May especially if Godolphin mess up both Kingsfort and Chabal.
Well strictly speaking on the trends Steinbeck has been eliminated for finishing 4th, but the trend which stipulates that the horses must have finished in the top 3 on their final start as a 2yo has been bent a little by the Dewhurst this decade so I’m happy to allow for some leeway.
King’s Best was 5th in 1999 before winning it in 2000, Delegator and Vital Equine were also both 5th before finishing 2nd in 2009 and 2007 respectively. Zafeen 4th, Snow Ridge 9th, Enrique 4th and all finished 2nd in the 2000 Guineas as well.
Kingsfort goes into 2010 as the absolute trends horse, but Steinbeck’s broken trend is more like a tiny fracture and cannot be eliminated with confidence.
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Thankfullu Tabassum was beaten in the Rockfel today, otherwise she’d have been a ridiculously short-priced joint-favourite, but as it stands she’s now a ludicrously long price.
Bint Doyen is eliminated, while Gibraltar Blue was simply too far back to be considered as a realistic winner.
4 of the last 15 1000 Guineas didn’t come via the Cheveley Park, Fillies’ Mile or Rockfel, and in keeping with that trend, at this stage the 1000 Guineas is between Lady Of The Desert (being aimed at the French equivalent), Lady Darshaan, Sent From Heaven, Foolish Ambition and Tabassum.
And Hibaayeb is much too big a price to be overlooked. She breaks the trend which says the winner must not have needed more than 2 attempts to win a maiden, but Speciosa had the same kind of profile.
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The Derby picture will be a lot clearer after the RP Trophy.
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Not even going to look at the Oaks until the entries are out.
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I still harbour a slight hope that Dick Turpin will train on next year, but Arcano, Special Duty and Rosanara are beginning to stand out amongst this year’s juveniles (though I hope to see a lot more of Burnett in the future).
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I’m amazed you hold out any sort of hope for Dick Turpin and even more amazed no one on here seems to know that his stable companion Canford Cliffs exists.
Make no mistake Canford Cliffs is in the words of Richard Hannon Jnr "our best by a mile when it comes to pecking order"
Richard Hannon has won the 2000 Guineas 3 times with Mon Fils, Don’t Forget Me and Tirol and regards Canford Cliffs as different class to any of them.
Hughsie says he’s the best he’s ever sat on and will get a mile standing on his head.
He also clearly stated he never felt right at Deauville yet he’s beaten only inches.
You either trust the teams judgment or you don’t but there’s massive confidence behind Canford Cliffs and IMO you ignore what they have said at your peril.
Fist, it’s all very well saying ‘he’s the best I’ve ridden, but that doesn’t mean much if he’s not ridden any exceptional horses.
The best horse Richard Hughes won a Group 1 on was Oasis Dream. American Post was pretty good, but he’s never ridden any truly exceptional horses.
It’s like when Richard Hills said earlier this year that Ghanaati was the best filly he’d ridden. He hadn’t ridden any good ones ffs.
Anyway I’ve laid off my stake on Hot Prospect. The RP reported (falsely) that he was being aimed at the RP Trophy, but he’s down to run tomorrow in the Silver Tankard. He won’t run in any Group races after that, so he’s gone on the trends.
All steam ahead for Coordinated Cut in the RP Trophy.
Over the years I have learned that the sure way to get a bug in your yard is to bring in a horse from a yard that is not firing. I fear that Godolfin may bring bad luck onto their yard by introducing Chabal. I know they have quarantine sheds etc etc. However lets wait and see.
Usually reliable sources inform me that Canford Cliffs returned from France much sicker than was reported.
The Horris Hill is just as interesting for me as the RP Trophy on Saturday. Some really smart 2yos could be on show. Inler looks like he will see a quick return to the track following his very impressive debut. Godolphin have five unbeaten to pick from – Sahara Kingdom is the one that I like the look of. Pastoral Player of Hugie Morrison’s may race … if the horse chooses to. Oasis Dancer is entered following the big sales success. Will be interested to see what is still entered im a couple of days time.
The Horris Hill is just about the last race I’d run a 2yo of mine in. Just consistently throws up dreadful horses.
I was wondering why Elusive Pimpernel’s been eliminated on my trends for the Derby and it’s because he’s by Elusive Quality. I just cannot see him getting the trip. I can see 10f, maybe even 11, but not 12.
Bolger’s yard has been under a cloud since the Guineas meeting; that means the whole damn year.He finished third in the Guineas and that was as good as it got.
You’re not wrong about the Horris Hill Zarkava. I guess anything that runs can be eliminated on the trends? Clearing of Gosden’s the only decent animal out of the race in the last decade.
I liked the way Taamathul won today … he seems to travel with ease and has a decent turn of foot to go 4L clear when out front.
He was behind Dancing David on his debut but I think if they raced again Taamathul would have the beating of him. Will be interested to see how DD runs in the RP tomorrow. I had Taamathul down as a possible Derby candidate on debut and if DD runs credibly I think I’ll get on ante post.
Zarkava and Gerald what did you guys think of ST Nicholas Abbey today i thought what a outstanding performance by him.And he will get better next year.
Are there any horses out there to stop him winning the Derby.
St Nicholas Abbey was very impressive in the RPT yesterday. I was quite surprised how he won it so easily. I’m not getting carried away by it though … like I did with Crowded House.
Canford Cliffs is my 2 Y O of the season. Even when he ran below par in France, Arcano and Special Duty still had a helluva job to beat him.
Absolutely nothing will stop St. Nicholas Abbey and I’m going to stop investing in the Derby immediately. If Nibani can win a maiden in the next fortnight, he could potentially be a credible contender, but even then I’d be extremely doubtful about anything beating St. Nick. Been a while since an April foal won the Derby (1999 and Oath), but he’s only an April 13th foal so he should be fine. I’ve bet roughly £25 on the Derby so far, Nibani responsible for the majority of that, but I’ve learnt that I need to be more accommodating of A/M/J foals.
However, he definitely won’t be winning the Guineas. People get very excited by RP Trophy winners, but it’s a real test of stamina for 2yos, and when they win like that it shows more stamina than anything else and he’s far too stoutly bred anyway.
Decided to have £2 on Hibaayeb the other day at 95s. Some people looked at the market and realised how absolutely ridiculous the 100s and 110s on offer were so they snaffled them up. And I was waiting for the bots to offer me 150s
Sent From Heaven is now an equally ridiculous 95s again.
I do not want to see ST Nicholas Abbey in the 2000 guineas as i backed Kingsfort and Steinbeck.So O’Brein train him for the derby instead please.
A intresting Group 3 race in Ireland tomorrow.
Thunder Bridge who by 13L on his debut will be taking on the 1st 2yo winner of John Oxx which was Keredari. Impressed by the Oxx horse on debut and Purple Heart came out and franked the form as well.Keredari is pick in the race tomorrow
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