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“The horses “sneaking in” were runner up to the runaway Scottish National winner in the Eider and floored fancied Fiddlerontheroof at Ascot and neither race from out of the handicap.”
Fortescue likes soft ground and no longer has the benefit of the claimer in this. And the trainer of Éclair Surf thought the National wouldn’t suit this year as the horse likes to belt a fence but they have decided to take their chance. You never know, but I’ll stick with the top 60 on weights day stat until it goes.
For info, the top 60 on weights day are the top 35 of the final field just announced.
Mike said “Since 1970, no horse has won the National outside the top 60 on the racecard on weights day.”
As i posted the other day re Snow Leopardess (no mare has won the GN since 1951) Stats are there to be broken.
FWIW i dont think Fortescue will win but run into a place? Doable.
“As i posted the other day re Snow Leopardess (no mare has won the GN since 1951) Stats are there to be broken.
FWIW i dont think Fortescue will win but run into a place? Doable.”A place is possible sure, all kinds of horses can get placed. As regards to the mare history that particular stat wouldn’t read the same to me as the number that have tried with big chances since 1951 is more than likely to have been a small sample.
More horses rated outside the original top 60 will have raced from out of the handicap back in the day.
The race has changed a lot in recent years.
We are talking about two getting into the race with ORs in excess of 140.
I am endebted to Mike for the stat which indicates that overall the Handicapper might be broadly kinder to the best horses, but I don’t think it would stop the bottom five necessarily.
Good talking point, though.
Will the supplier of the stat be laying the bottom five at Betfair Exchange?
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"The ones ‘sneaking in’ are just 18 lbs lower than the top weight. A long way from horses running from a stone or so out of the weights (sometimes very well), once an enjoyable feature.
The eight-year-old Farclas, who finished fifth last year, is waiting for Fairyhouse.
Eddie O’Leary, racing manager for Gigginstown House Stud, said: “He’s very well, he’s in really good form but we’re just wanting to go for the Irish National with him.
“The Irish National is a race very close to our hearts so that’s where he’ll go instead of Aintree. He’s perfectly well within himself, we’re just going to save him for Fairyhouse.”
Left it late didn’t they having those of other horses anxiously waiting and thinking they would miss the cut
Vf x
“bet365 offer only available from 10.00am on race day”
Nope.
My account message says it is available from 00:00:01 today until 11.59.59 on Saturday lunchtime.So, it has been live for just over 12 hours already.
Guess people are different. I havent had any email and what I posted is via the Bet365 app
I haven’t had any email either – and I won’t be getting one.
Restricted!
Jealous of those who can do this!
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“Guess people are different. I havent had any email and what I posted is via the Bet365 app”
I login to the website via my mobile.
It is on front page as an ‘advert’. When i click on the link it gives full details.Defo avail for last 13 hours
I use a PC and it popped up a couple of hours ago and if you look into your account under messages, there should be one for this offer which for me started at 00.01 this morning. Like Ian said if you have received an email in the past informing you that you are not going to get BOG or promotions then you wont be able to use it.
I guess most people who use the firm will know if they are restricted or not and if you are not then it will be ok. If unsure you can always ask them through the online chat if it available to you.
Top British and Irish Jockeys may sway a few people decisions.
The top 10 British Jockeys and their rides.
1 Brian Hughes – none
2 Sam Twiston Davies – Class Conti
3 Harry Skelton – Blaklion
4 Harry Cobden – Lostintranslation
5 Sean Bowen – Samcro
6 Paddy Brennan – none
7 Jamie Moore – none
8 Sean Quinian – none
9 Nico De Boinville -none
10 James Bowen – KildisartTop 10 Irish Jockeys
1 Paul Townsend – Burrows Saint
2 Mark Walsh – Any Second Now
3 Darragh O’ Keeffe – Longhouse Poet
4 Rachael Blackmore – Minella Times
5 Jordan Gainford – Death Duty
6 Sean O’ Keeffe – none
7 Davy Russell – Run Wild Fred
8 Jack Foley – none
9 Mr P Mullins – none
10 Danny Mullins – Austa GoldYou've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.After ploughing through the form and handicap marks I have the following short-ish list:
187 Eclair Surf
179 Santini
177 Discorama
173 Burrows Saint
173 Escaria Ten
173 Good Boy Bobby
173 Phoenix Way
173 Death Duty
173 (Res 2) School Boy Hours
172 De Rasher Counter
172 Snow Leopardess
172 Agusta Gold
172 BlaklionApplying filters of distance and big field knocks a few out. Although there have been blinkered winners I’m not keen on them so kicked out another couple and arrived at a final 4:
Eclair Surf 14/1 – Won well at Warwick and his second to Win My Wings in the Eider gives him a clear advantage on the figures.
De Rasher Counter 40/1 – Clearly had problems but would be right in there on best form.
Snow Leopardess 8/1 – Ticks all the boxes.
Blaklion 50/1 – Outrun in a swamp at Haydock last time but reinvigorated before that and has decent form in the race.Irish have plenty of runners, but many look in their place, though School Boy Hours would be interesting IF he gets a run.
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