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You were the one who bought up Warwick ginge using it as evidence aso and two for gold were in form to flesh out you’re argument for that Kelso race being any good
And admirals secret the third in that race finished way down the field in the ultima
This rating of cloth cap is another royal pagaille
The maths of it may make sense but on no planet is the horse actually that good
And it shows why the irish win all the handicaps because we are drastically overstating the ability of our horses putting them up huge amounts for performances that simply aren’t worth it
Does he have a good chance? Yes
Is he a 160s horse? Not on any evidence I can seeTotally agree Kasparov. Although with Cloth Cap there is the possibility that if unable to dominate he may fall back, can not ignore the 3/1 for a place.
Value Is EverythingMilan native has had a wind opp , I know it was before chelt but I reckon chelt was mearly a blow out for today
Horses are not machines, FF.
Admirals Secret was going up markedly in trip in the Ultima, from 2m4f to 3m1f. He was also said by the vet to have lost his right fore shoe.
Value Is EverythingSeems to be the usual GN anomaly caused by people arbing the Bet365 offer
How can you arb anything when the exchange prices are larger than 365 prices ?
I think Botchy – at least in previous years and if I remember rightly – Bet 365 offer a free each way part to the bet. So people are laying part of what they’d get for the place. Making a profit whether it places or not.
Value Is EverythingI get that bit Ginge, but it is only free if it loses.So the only way to arb anything is if the price taken shortens on the exchanges not gets bigger.
In this case arbing is meant by taking advantage of the free each way part of the bet, so as to be in profit whatever the outcome (despite laying it at a bigger price).
Value Is EverythingTTC,
Time for the Topham yesterday was only 9.66 seconds slower than Racing Post Standard. That for me would be just about good-soft. With a dry night and dry day… and even with 6mm watering I’d say it will either be the same as yesterday or on the good side of good-soft by off time. ie Bordering on good.Cloth Cap should be effective on either good or good-soft unless it’s loose. On loose ground I’ve found it’s a lottery, suits only some good ground horses and suits only some softer ground horses… But shouldn’t be loose.
Value Is EverythingIt will be good to soft at the very best imo. Why on earth are they watering at all when times are 10 seconds slower than standard? Is there some logic to it I am missing?
BUY THE SUN
Safety, TTC.
Those that fall on good going are more likely to be injured / die.
…And this is the day the public are looking on.
So tbh can understand them watering.Value Is EverythingRaces aren’t allowed to be ran on ‘Good’ any more? I know thats the reason, but I completely disagree with it.
BUY THE SUN
Sympathise TTC, but although it might not be officially good… groundsmen are marking their own work – in reality it may well be good. Vast majority are effective on good-soft anyway.
Another reason I suspect they water to try and maintain good-soft is this is potentially a massive pay day for connections. Chances of connections letting a horse that really doesn’t like a sound surface “take its chance” is far greater. Some horses with records of injury and / or unsuitably pounding rounded actions will be letting them run, where as they’d be a non-runner on good ground in any other race.
Value Is EverythingFriendly bet – I bet you 10 press ups (trust is implicit here!) the time is at least 12 seconds slower than standard in the National.
PS – 10 Press Ups is a fairly intimidating punt for me to be fair, haha.
BUY THE SUN
The opening big-field handicap hurdle, slow by 16 seconds. Officially ‘G/S, Good in places’, my arse! We are getting as bad as the French for this nonsense.
Edit – And the bookies test the water with an opening robbery, O/R 125%.
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It’s pretty obvious a racecourse like Aintree will not be exactly the same ground throughout, TTC. imo It’s right that the official description is accurate. It also rightly suggests the good-soft going is leaning more towards good than it is soft. That’s surely important to both connections and punters alike.
Value Is Everything
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