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Three horses I make the best current value are:
I know I Just Know has gone up a lot since winning the North Yorkshire Grand National at Catterick, so is perhaps technically poorly handicapped now. However, is so progressive of late so could yet still progress past his handicap mark. Bit concerned there’s so much pace in tomorrow’s race – IJK normally a front runner. But if they don’t go too fast has many other attributes for this. Stays extremely well, loves very soft/heavy ground, from a stable who know how to prepare a Grand National winner… And jumps for fun, can make lengths at his fences. I make him a fair 14/1 chance and is still available at almost double that.
Not convinced Anibale Fly‘s jumping is going to be up to scratch. If jumping well enough will be difficult to beat on going he loves. I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts around 5/1… and 13/1 is available! Well handicapped on Gold Cup form and still progressing. Closing on Native River up the Cheltenham straight, looking as though an extreme test will suit even more. Usually I prefer a prominent runner and Anibale Fly is a hold up horse, however this year there’s so many that need to lead (or at least dispute it) that they may set it up for a closer.
The Last Samuri had excuses last year, got upset in prelims and stable not in great form. Some say he’s handicapped out of things after placed three times over this course – but runs off the same mark as when second to Rule The World on similar ground to this two years ago. He’s 8 lbs better off with Blaklion for 9 lengths from this season’s Becher chase. ie At 1 lb per length should finish 1 length behind Blaklion… And on very soft ground over extreme tests each pound is worth more than a length… Plus (given this is going to be a more severe test than 2017) The Last Samuri will probably be better suited by conditions. Kim Bailey’s horse should imo be shorter than Twister’s. Third in the X-Country is nowhere near his best form, not jumping as well as usual but I’ve heard no horse has won over those unique fences on first try. So it’s barely a negative and this race always his aim. Like Politologue today, is tongue tied for the first time. Be a little worried if The Last Samuri gets too far back in the field as doesn’t like being behind too many horses. Very genuine when racing prominently, tracking pace and in a finish. Recent strike rate isn’t great but has run in competitive races and often placed. Currently 27/1, I rate him a 16/1 shot.
More to come…
Value Is EverythingThe ground has put me off Saint Are completely and I can’t have confidence in Lord Windermere with his “prep”. Tenor Nivernais and Double Ross both have their ground, but are not the most established stayers, even if the latter looked like running a big race two years back before the saddle slipped. Houblon Des Obeaux is the only one I’m backing with any real confidence. I just can’t see him running a bad race and the plummet in his price is a bit of a confidence boost; 100/1 two weeks ago, now 33/1 in places!
I will add one more in the morning. Whether it’s Maggio, Vieux Lion Rouge or the winner of the virtual National; I’m not quite sure! It isn’t the most vintage renewal, but it’s exceptionally open! Very reminiscent of an old school National field. Lets just hope the race is just as exciting!
Even though I back half the field [hangs head in shame] if I do get a winner/placed horse it’s usually with the horses I first backed ages ago. Which, for me are Shantou Flyer, I Just Know, Tiger Roll and Final Nudge. Really looking forward to knowing the outcome tomorrow…
I’m surprised Milansbar price is holding up so well. Got his ground, light weight, top staying chase jock (though she’s not been in the news as much as expected so far), in good recent form . . . 33 still available.
I Just Know and Seeyouatmidnight would be my two but I’ll pass and just pull up the result later on.
Good luck to everyone playing and hope the race is safe for all participants.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well another year and another absolute head-smasher trying to get my act together on a punting front so here go.
As stated earlier I’ve backed Pleasant Company with Hills at 44/1. He was cruising along last year before belting Valentine’s second time around. He’s been sparingly tried this year with an eye to this and is partnered by Grand National winning jock David Mullins.
The main bet has gone on Total Recall at 14/1. He bids to become the second Hennessy winner in 4 years following in Many Clouds’ hoofprints. I thought his Gold Cup run was full of promise and looks to be the ideal type for just hunting round the first circuit before scything through with his class and outstaying the front-runners late on.
Seeyouatmidnight also had to be backed. I was all over him for the Scottish National 2 years ago and came away thinking he’s a perfect type for going close in the big one.
I’m also on I Just Know at 20s. I very nearly took 33s at the start of the week but just kept dilly-dallying and now even missed out on the 25s. The way he won the North Yorkshire National off such a big weight was massively impressing and I’ve always been a fan of the jockey/trainer combination.
The last of the main bets was an each-way poke on Warriors Tale at 50s. He’s a solid jumper and the impression from connections is that he’ll stay all day. They’ve kept him fresh for this since January and the form of the SkyBet looks solid enough. If he does stay then expect a big run.
The non-main bets are on Buywise at 66/1 simply because I’ve backed him almost every time he’s ever run except for when he won at Sandown and I’d cry if he won here; and Final Nudge at 50s as if the ground is heavy then he’s the specialist and is in off a feather-weight.
TOTAL RECALL 14/1
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT 14/1
I JUST KNOW 20/1
PLEASANT COMPANY 44/1
WARRIORS TALE 50/1
FINAL NUDGE 50/1
BUYWISE 66/1A big best of luck to everyone who’s taking a punt on the big race. If I don’t have the winner then here’s hoping as many of you geezers as possible are shouting for joy.
Thought I was going to come on here with a surprise 40/1 shot, but it seems a few have got here before me.
Houblon Des Obeaux: On the downgrade, but wouldn’t need to be at his best to win off this mark of 144. Back as a 7 year old in 2014 a 3 1/4 lengths second to Many Clouds in the Hennessey off topweight, a mark of 157, coming out the best horse at the weights by actually giving the winner 6 lbs. Also subsequently winner of a (poor quality) Denman Chase. Admittedly something of a Newbury specialist and has never run well at Aintree despite several tries, but has never had his ground here before. Off 153 Last season a 16 3/4 lengths 3rd to Native River, getting just 2 lbs from winner on reapperance in Welsh National… Proving he’s suited by a test of stamina on very soft ground; Beaten a long way here in 10th last year but ground not soft enough. So what’s he still capable of as an 11 year old? Won a 3m veterans race on reappearance off 141 this season. Form again took a downward step afterwards but coincided with the trainer’s awful run of form. Vennitia Williams has had 8 wins from 15 runners since April 9th. Would have a real chance here if able to run to a level only around 7 lbs better than reappearance. Available @ 40/1, I rate him a fair 22/1 chance.
Value Is EverythingYes, conditions have come right for Milansbar, Joe. Now has a better chance than I gave him ante-post (before ground conditions were known). You’re right he’s not had the coverage, presumably due to Whip Crack Away Katie having a better chance. Another reason for the price holding up may be that he’s a prominent runner; with far more similar types than a normal year a lot won’t get the run needed to show their best. I saw an interview where she suggested a different type of ride may be tried. If doing so Milansbar may well spit the dummy out. That said, conditions mean I now have him at 33/1 in my 100% book.
Value Is EverythingI Just Know has the sort of credentials to deliver the goods. The same goes for his stablemate Delusionofgrandeur, who I’m chuffed to see sneak in.
As discussed upthread, Houblon Des Obeaux will stay and will enjoy the ground.
And I couldn’t not back dear old Saint Are for a place.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
Double Ross 140/1
Houblon des Obeaux 120/1
Carlingford Lough 75/1
Gas Line Boy 50/1
Ucello Conti 20/1
Anibale Fly 14/1These will do for me. Good luck all.
edit: I forgot Gas Line Boy
Is it just me or have Gigginstown bought another national, but with more discretion? They are, and have been for while now, the most powerful national hunt owner. Surpassing the mighty JP McManus and expanding…admiration for the investment, but to what end? These aren’t the millionare making stallions of Coolmore, so where justifies the investment? Exactly the same as their airline. Saturate the market, then dominate it, own it.
They have two of the best handicapped horses in the race, both of whom are multiple grade 1 winners. Both are ridiculously well handicapped, have their documented issues, seem out of love with the game, therefore regarded as no-hopers. Both have grade 1 wins in heavy (VL fell at the last), yet connections state they both need good ground. Giggs dominate all is NH these days, therefore I can see a Giggs forecast in the national tomorroW with apparent no hopers, Road To Riches and Valsuer Lido. Hindsight is a great thing….grade 1 winner in a handicap…10, 12, 14lb etc lower than ever before……don’t like the operation, but they make the most out of their investments.They’re not running these “past it, not come back from injury” grade 1 horses for the fun of it…in my very humble, yet cynical opinion.In the absence of anything convincing, why not join me in tossing away a few coppers on Delusionofgrandeur (80), Final Nudge (50) and Raz de Maree (a paltry 25).
You might as well ask the cat but probably not The Catt
For my last one (unless I weaken before tomorrow) I’m joining moe, Charles and Pilgarlic on Final Nudge at 50s EW. I liked his short head second in the Badger Ales and his 3rd in the Welsh National, both on fairly testing ground. The horses who finished ahead of him in these efforts all had the benefit of good 5lb claimers. I’ll forgive his run LTO; Cheltenham isn’t for everyone (as Ultragold proved) and FN has decent form on flat tracks. Reasonably good jumper, goes on soft, stays as well as most in this.
My final lineup:
BAIE DES ILES 66s
FINAL NUDGE 50s
LORD WINDERMERE 66s
WARRIORS TALE 50sAll EW. Good luck everyone, enjoy the race and be glad you’re not a valet!
From my preview:
5:15 – RANDOX HEALTH GRAND NATIONAL HANDICAP CHASE (GRADE 3)
The world’s greatest steeplechase looks as open as ever with five horses at 12/1 joint favourites at the time of writing. Total Recall has been fancied by many for this after a fantastic run earlier this season when winning the Ladbrokes Trophy (The Hennessy). He won a hurdle race after before falling in the Gold Cup. Attempting the National on the back of a fall is not the best preparation but he’s clearly talented and improving steadily. Seeyouatmidnight attempts back to back wins in this race for Scotland whilst Blaklion loves the unique test the Aintree fences bring. Tiger Roll won the Cross-Country last time and is a remarkable horse but is very small for a horse in this race and that would worry me. The gamble of the race is the grey Baie Des Iles from 50/1 a fortnight ago into 14/1. Captain Redbeard is proven on this ground but steps up in trip. Shantou Flyer finished strongly in the Kim Muir and this trip may well prove to his liking. The same can be said of I Just Know who has looked like a different horse when running over three miles and further. My 2018 bet for the race is ANNIBALE FLY who must go close if coping with the weight of 11st 8lb. He finished strongly when third in the Gold Cup after previously falling when travelling strongly in the Irish Gold Cup. That fall was a rare mistake and he is due to go up 9lb in the weights. He’s my winner for the 2018 running of the Grand National in my attempt of back to back winners.Prediction:
1 – ANNIBALE FLY @ 12/1
2 – I Just Know @ 18/1
3 – Baie Des Iles @ 14/1
4 – Shantou Flyer @ 28/1
5 – Raz De Maree @ 25/1
6 – Milansbar @ 25/1Horse by horse:
1) Thunder And Roses (66/1) – Got in as a reserve. Looks to be past his best after being classy on his day. Jumping frailties latest. My rating out of 10 for his chances: 3
2) Blaklion (12/1) – Daunting task of top weight. Loves these fences. Didn’t stay well enough last year and tired quickly in his prep. 7
3) Annibale Fly (12/1) – Classy type. 9lb well in. Finished strongly in Gold Cup. Smoothe traveller. Will cope with the ground. Must go well. 10
4) The Last Samuri (20/1) – 2nd in 2016. Struggled last year but better this campaign. Bit high in the weights now. Would prefer better ground. 7
5) Valseur Lido (50/1) – Top class on his day. Struggled this term. Will cope with the ground but it’s hard to see him challenging. 5
6) Total Recall (12/1) – Improving type. Fell latest which is a big negative. Classy horse who has run well in big handicaps previously. Big run expected. 8
7) Alpha Des Obeaux (33/1) – Inconsistent. Can perform well on a good day. Tendency to break blood vessels is a worry. Not without a chance. 6
8) Perfect Candidate (50/1) – Went well for a long way last year but seemingly didn’t stay. Hard to see how he will cope this year. 5
9) Shantou Flyer (28/1) – Been in good form this year. Didn’t threaten last year but has looked a better stayer since. Each way claims. 8
10) Tenor Nivernais (100/1) – Looks past his best. Beaten into 17th last year. Shown nothing since. Oppose. 3
11) Carlingford Lough (50/1) – Top class on his best form. Two time Irish Gold Cup winner but looked a shadow of that this season. Hard to fancy. 4
12) Delusionsofgrandeur (80/1) – Consistent type. Should finish. May lack the class of plenty and could be a shade high in the weights. 6
13) Tiger Roll (12/1) – Brilliant in the cross country. Stout stayer. Generally a good jumper. Perhaps best at Cheltenham though. Small horse which is a worry. Contender. 7
14) Regal Encore (33/1) – Inconsistent. Will stay on. Hard to access. Each way chance. 6
15) Vieux Lion Rouge (33/1) – Leading contender last year. Failed to stay. Ground will make this a slog which probably won’t suit. Not for me. 5
16) Chase The Spud (40/1) – Won 2017 Midlands National. Dissapointed this season. Has questions to answer. 6
17) Warriors Tale (50/1) – Been running over shorter. Massive step up in trip makes him a wildcard. Seen worse bets. 6
18) Seeyouatmidnight (12/1) – Laid out for this. Loves the mud. Will improve for his reappearance. 7
19) Gas Line Boy (25/1) – Gallant fifth last year. Loves these fences. Running as well as ever even at the age of 12. Each way shout. 7
20) The Dutchman (20/1) – Burst blood vessel latest. Strong stayer previously. Chance. 7
21) Loves the mud. Beautiful jumper. Didn’t stay last year. 6
22) Ucello Conti (20/1) – Generally consistent. Ran no race last time. Back from a break. Interesting. 7
23) Saint Are (66/1) – Loves this race. Ground is against him. Never say never. 6
24) Walk In The Mill (100/1) – Reserve in at the last hour. Hard to fancy stepped up in distance. Huge jump in class here. 5
25) Raz De Maree (25/1) – Incredible horse. Welsh National winner this term. Loves heavy ground. Stays all day. As genuine a horse as you will find. Placer. 8
26) I Just Know (18/1) – Appears to be at his best when up in trip. This marathon could suit. Will relish conditions. 9
27) Virgillio (66/1) – Unknown quantity. Big step up in trip today. Looks uncomplicated. Could be on a nice mark off 10st 8lb. Lively outsider. 7
28) Baie Des Iles (14/1) – Beautiful grey. Monster gamble on her in the recent weeks. Trip should suit. Mudlover must go well. 9
29) Maggio (100/1) – Laid out for this. Likes Aintree. Not shown much this season. Lively outsider. 7
30) Pendra (100/1) – 13th last year. Major stamina concern. Hard to see him going close. Oppose. 4
31) Buywise (66/1) – Won the big Veterans race this year. 12th two years ago. Usually finishes well but had nothing left in 2016 at the end. 6
32) Children’s List (100/1) – Talented but fragile. Faded quickly last time. Big stamina doubt. 5
33) Lord Windermere (66/1) – Won 2014 Gold Cup. Pulled up in 2015 Grand National. Lost his way. Retirement beckons. 3
34) Captain Redbeard (16/1) – Getting better. Handles heavy ground. Step up to marathon trip may suit. 6
35) Houblon Des Obeaux (40/1) – Inconsistent. Often hits a flat spot. No hiding places here. 6
36) Bless The Wings (50/1) – Big price. Inconsistent but talented. If still going at the last, he will finish strongly. Not one to trust though. 6
37) Milansbar (25/1) – Paceless but stays all day. The extreme test will suit him and he’s one of few you’d expect will definitely complete. 7
38) Final Nudge (50/1) – Started the season well. Likes the mud. Sound stayer. Has an each way chance. 6
39) Double Ross (100/1) – Will set the tempo. Doubtful he can keep galloping for as long as some. Game type though. 6
40) Road To Riches (66/1) – Superb at his best. In as a reserve. Looks gone at the game. Couldn’t back him with counterfeit. 2Bet:
– Annibale Fly @ 14/1 e/w
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