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I’m a bit of a Missed Approach fan I’m afraid and have backed him as a sole bet in this race at 5/1.
Connections appear to have had this in mind for a little while and I see no reason why he won’t enjoy the course, jumping test and conditions.
Taking a pot shot with On The Road @ 14/1. Could blow out completely but trainer thought he had a chance in WGN, a much better race than this poor renewal of the Classic.
I’m more confident he will stay, upped in trip, than Crosspark. Missed Approach looks to have an obvious chance but hasn’t won for a while, is only 9/2 and I’m not a great fan of the trainer. Sir Mangan has a bit to find and yard a bit quiet as usual at this time of year. Goodtoknow may bounce back to form but may not and it’s several poor runs. The jumping is always a worry with Cogry and he prefers better ground. Not convinced Cresswell Breeze is quite good enough, can’t get last season’s Haydock flop out of my mind. Milansbar has gone unless first time blinkers work a miracle, Ballycross needs cheekpieces to help his jumping. Topper Thornton is going to find it hard to turn round Sandown form with CB and stable may have gone off boil. Don’t believe Krackatoa King can recover from gruelling effort at Wincanton to repeat it in this slog on tacky. Indian Castle needs visor to stop him getting behind/out of rhythm needed down the back here, hasn’t won for four years. Russe Blanc’s jumping has gone to pot, needs Heavy.
In desperation I turn to unexposed one on nice weight, On The Road.
I had backed Sir Mangan for the Welsh National in December, unfortunately he didn’t show up last week. However, I think Sir Mangan could do here well too.
taken the simple approach of backing the kerry lee trio of KK , Goodtoknow and Russe Blanc
From my blog (posted last night):
Another park for me here – Crosspark who’d been pretty consistent until pulled up last time at Newbury. A P in the formline last time always pushes out the price of a horse, very often well beyond what is merited as almost all have an off day at some point. Trainer Caroline Bailey says the 8-y-o ‘wasn’t quite right’ after Newbury but is better now. This is his first run beyond three miles so stamina is taken on trust, but his sire has a decent record given the limited number of runners he’s had at marathon trips. Gina Andrews takes 3lbs off and at the price I’m more than happy to go with him.
I like the little mare Cresswell Breeze an awful lot and tipped her last time at Sandown where she looked like a horse who needed dropping in trip. But the trainer is persevering at 3m 5f and I hope she doesn’t make a fool of me in this.
Crosspark 31/1 (Betfair)
Like DBR I backed SIR MANGAN for the 1st running of the Welsh National.
He didn’t make the 2nd running, although I got my money back in any case for the cancelled
race. This is as far as he has gone, but I think he will get the trip as he didn’t look
like he was running out of steam when a good 3/4l 2nd at Newton Abbot to Beer Goggles,
who more than franked the form with his win in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury, even
if he did steal a march on them. He won well last time out at Bangor but he’ll need to be
at his best off his highest chase mark. 8/1 seems about fair and the stable seems to have
picked up a little with 4 winners in the past 3 days. He has a shout.Well, that’s what I thought might happen… In the Welsh National.
Value Is EverythingWell I have to admit I didn’t see that coming, but well done to Bryony Frost, she
rode a terrific race, always in the right place and judged the pace spot on.Great rider but the blinkers did work a miracle. Cogry’s jumping has improved but prefers better ground. Will Missed Approach ever win again? Looks like handicapper was right to drop him. Crosspark was too keen. On The Road was terrible – like all Evan Williams’s runners today. Not far wrong about the rest.
WP winners…. BF very tidy jockey,also gave Silsol great ride in the Welsh National.
Indian Castle always on the back foot,not sure where they go now.
Trying hard not to feel aggrieved about this winner, having backed it last week; was almost going to back it again when I read about one last try with the application of blinkers and I decided against it. Great performance, but, for me, painful to watch.
No, Nina has always been whip happy and ridden primarily against amateurs. Bryony is different class, especially given her inexperience.
Value Is EverythingWell, that’s what I thought might happen… In the Welsh National. 😥
I backed him every time he ran last season but gave up in him for this season and just when I was about to start patting myself on the back… bang! in he goes.
Complete change for the horse though. New rider, new tactics and new headgear. When you look back it all seemed very clear that this was a bit of an old plot.
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