Aintree Bowl 2018

I also like Clan des Obeaux. And I have backed him 22/1 EW BOG. He has good form with Whisper and should get the ground and distance. Most of his opponents have raced at Cheltenham and that must have left a mark.

I like Bristol De Mai. Kept fresh for this, loves flat tracks and soft ground. Might consider dutching him and Definitly Red, who is nothing if not reliable.

Might Bite would prefer the ground better and that GC looked a real grueller, so I’m keen to take him on.

Bristol De Mai is very much overrated by some IMO but at 6s (appreciate he’s 11/2 best now) against this field he has to be a bet. Had his wind done, comes here fresh and has ideal conditions of soft ground on a flat LH track.

Definitely Red had a hard couple of races, Double Shuffle wants better ground and probably RH track.

Does T42 want better ground? He could be value but Lizzie isn’t my fav jock and he’s not a horse I’ve ever really clicked with TBH. Rest are rags IMO.

I can understand the idea behind Clan Des Obeaux e/w at 16/1 given it’s an 8 runner event and he’s been on the sidelines whilst others have had hard Festival races but on official ratings he’s got an awful lot to find and I can’t see anything in the form book to suggest he should go close to winning this.

I think they’re clutching at straws with Bristol De Mai now in the thinking that a wind-op is suddenly going to make him more consistent and he hasn’t been running like a horse with any sort of issue to my eye at all. He was lacklustre in this race last year and even if you ignore that King George run, strictly on a line through Native River (10 lengths behind him in last year’s Denman and 20 in last year’s Gold Cup) he has plenty to find with Might Bite.

If you’re going against Might Bite you must be hoping that he’s not recovered from the Gold Cup. If he’s within half a stone of his best he should be taking this out. If I had to guess one to chase him home I’d side with Double Shuffle who hasn’t been exerting himself of late over Definitly Red who seemed outclassed in the Gold Cup and has probably been found out as far as Grade 1s are concerned.

Might Bite 4/5
Straight Forecast: Might Bite to beat Double Shuffle.

I’m waiting on a proper ground report on the day. If its good to soft then Might Bite to win by 4 or more lengths hopefully will produce a price of around 7/4 (totally dependent on his price to win of course). Everything about him oozes class.

I will post up the best price I can find if going for it.

Might Bite had a hard race in the Gold Cup and although clearly the best horse I always want to take on odds-on horses with temperament issues. Those issues did not appear when second to Native River purely because he didn’t lead on the run-in. By what he does in front when in the country, clearly loves it there at that stage. However, when leading in the closing stages doesn’t find much off the bridle (distracted). Ability-wise King George distances back to the second and third don’t do him justice. Looked as though he’d win that race easily before idling run-in. Ditto RSA, idled badly and wandered towards the racecourse entrance when hearing the crowd; before running on again once passed by riderless horses. If idling again and a jockey challenges wide there may not be time for Might Bite to respond. Maybe won’t need to come off the bridle to win, but at odds-on imo he’s worth opposing… Trouble is with what?

Bristol De Mai seems great when the mud is flying on a flat track, Aintree is a flat track but it isn’t Haydock and he’s also been best in the Autumn and Winter. Not only has he been below form lately, but his jumping has fallen apart too… And With Might Bite and Definitely Red in the field will probably be taken on up front – which places more pressure on jumping. Considering how good he looked at Haydock (although that increasingly appears a non-race) in these circumstances a wind op seems a negative.

Definitely Red seemed to resent not being able to race prominently in the Gold Cup. Will he be able to keep up with MB and BDM? Cotswold looked a career best at the time, not so sure now.

Double Shuffle comes here fresh but is flattered by proximity to Might Bite in the King George and imo best right-handed.

Tea For Two flattered too by Kempton. Won this last year which belatedly proved his effectiveness this way around. However, better than his last two starts suggest. I’d be interested in TFT if the going doesn’t test his stamina too much this time around.

Sub Lieutenent has some reasonable form but even at his best shouldn’t be good enough and recent form is poor.

Sizing Codelco isn’t good enough.

…So I wouldn’t like to lay Might Bite because he doesn’t have a great deal to beat and others are imo even worse value.

One I’ve plumped for is Clan Des Obeaux who’s coming here without running at Cheltenham. Half length second to Whisper in a two horse race looks better after the Ladbroke Trophy. Although Whisper probably improved at Newbury, CDO himself then won a graduation chase fairly easily by 7 lengths giving 7 lbs to Vintage Clouds. Then good second off a massive weight (155 mark) in the Caspian Caviar… And might have done better had he not made his ground faster than ideal. Punters tend to under-estimate handicap form from top weights and although of course has a bit to find; it probably isn’t as much as some believe. Could well improve for a step up to 3m1f. 14/1 worth an each way poke.

Tea For Two for me. Last year he went at the second in the GC and won the Betway Bowl afterwards. This year he did basically the same at Cheltenham and didn’t have a hard race after belting the first two. If he finds any of his old form, then he is the one to finish in the first three (or even win) at a decent price.

Might Bite surely is a class above this field, but the KG and the GC left their marks imo. I’m not sure whether he stands that much racing or not, we’ll find out after the race.

Definitely Red has had two very tough races at Cheltenham this year and I’ll treat him very carefully.

The one to spring an EW surprise could be Sizing Codelco at 100-1. Just in case that some horses won’t be running their race, he looks interesting at the above mentioned price.

Don’t fancy Clan Des Obeaux at all. He is just a horses running well in handicaps. Silviniaco Conti, Tea For Two, Cue Card, First Lieutenant, What A Friend, Our Vic, Exotic Dancer all proven Grade 1 horses. CDO has too much to find in my opinion and is a ridiculous price at 10s or 11s.