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This feels like one of the championship races where you could get a real upset. Maybe because the form of the top contenders isn’t that much ahead of some of those much further down in the betting. The fav has been winning quite easily and has done little wrong but there’s zero juice in his price
I’m going to put up DEDIGOUT at a massive price… ok he’s getting on a bit but on the pick of his form he’s not far behind these, and I feel like he’s been crying out for 3 miles on decent ground
I still think West Approach has the beating of Wholestone over 3 miles off level weights. Only beaten 1/2 length when giving 3ib and lacking race fitness over course and distance in October lest we forget. The worry is that connections would rather have a crack at the Stayers.
Stop panicking about that Charles…West approach will definitely stay the novice route this year.
“King of foresight”.
You’re a Doctor too Gordie.
The King of foresight has 80’s on the Stayers but only 20’s for the ‘Albert’but I did believe Colin when he said he’d stick to the Novice route this year but like I’ve already said I have to forgive him as he did me a turn with Thistlecrack in the King george at 10/1..
I’ve stated clearly that I dont care which race he goes for as he’s good enough to win both..You wouldn’t know what an 80/1 winner is until after the race being the ‘King of hindsight’ Ginge so keep trying pal. 
Trouble is there was nothing from you about backing 80/1 when the 80/1 was still available.
Then, at a time when the 80/1 was a thing of the past you told Charles that in your opinion West Approach “will definitely stay the novice route this year”. Only a while later, after the horse shortens up considerably for the Stayers Hurdle do we hear you actually had backed it all along…So, with 80/1 secretly in your pocket, why did you not come clean by saying so when Charles said “The worry is that connections would rather have a crack at the Stayers”?
Why reply by saying West Approach “will definitely stay the novice route this year”?I want to believe you Gord and anyway, you deserve credit for identifying West Approach as a good horse earlier than most. But when claims of massive prices first appear well after they’re gone and what is actually said in the meantime goes directly against those claims… you can’t blame people for being sceptical… And this isn’t the only horse it’s happened with.
Does being confident about any racehorse for any race during the season enable punters to get in a tardis and go back in time in order to take the long gone massive prices?
If wanting people to believe prices then TRFers should imo put them up when they’re still available or at least still close to the claimed price. Otherwise it smacks of aftertiming. Not saying you haven’t actually got the price. Even if the punter has got the price claimed, it enables him/her to only (or mainly) put up those who’ve shortened significantly since placing the bet, ie not most of those already lost or almost lost/lenthened.
As for me not knowing “what an 80/1 winner is until after the race”… Aurora’s Encore and Arabian Queen, both put up while their three figure prices were still available to TRFers.
Everyone knows you’re a good judge of horses Gord, no need to do this type of thing.
Value Is EverythingNone of that matters now the ground is looking good. Snow Falcon will canter past the lot of then. Harry will put up a fight being the ‘best’ horse in the race. But Newbury sticks in the mind and this fella was travelling but for falling 3 out. Who’s to say if he would have won and he’s been beaten since. But Mr Meade is adamant he’s better on better ground, so against the favourite you won’t get a better each way bet. If it doesn’t winit’s 1st three…but I’m sticking my neck out and say this wins.
love the depth that people look into and i can see the angles people come from
But just bet UKWIMH and Watch him stroll it, hes a certainty, he should be 4/7.
jezki will place
Cole harden will place
love the depth that people look into and i can see the angles people come from
But just bet UKWIMH and Watch him stroll it, hes a certainty, he should be 4/7.
jezki will place
Cole harden will place Have no short priced favs been turned over before at cheltenham then?
love the depth that people look into and i can see the angles people come from
But just bet UKWIMH and Watch him stroll it, hes a certainty, he should be 4/7.
jezki will place
Cole harden will place Have no short priced favs been turned over before at cheltenham then?
Of course they have
Im just putting my kneck on the line and giving a straight forward opinion, is that not allowed? I missed the part where i said that everyone else was wrong there? Point me in the direction?
But people can work out for themselves if the horse is worth backing
He probably will win but as Ginger will tell you the game is about identifying value as much as anything else
not sure if you back even money favourites at cheltenham you’re going to do very well in the long run
But people can work out for themselves if the horse is worth backing
He probably will win but as Ginger will tell you the game is about identifying value as much as anything else
not sure if you back even money favourites at cheltenham you’re going to do very well in the long run
Im not telling people who to bet im giving my own opinion on the race? Is that nlt what this forum is about? No ones going to bet their money off the back of what i say so there going to figure it out for themselves regardless
And this one races dosent identify my betting pattern over a long run lol, i merely said that UKWIMH WILL win and he should be 4/7…. hes sitting around 11/8 just now and if he strolls up like i said then that makes the 11/8 “good value” as the price is wrong
How can you say he WILL win… and then say he should be 4/7
surely if he WILL win then he should be 1.01 or no offer?
do you not understand probability?
of course he’s quite likely to win, the current odds indicate he has about a 50 percent chance of winning
But the task as a punter is to identify value, not mindlessly lump on every short priced favourite at the festival
it seems to me that you are thinking about the result too much, I’ve made this mistake at the festival before, maybe you are a newbie, however if I were you I would try and pick out horses that you feel will be suited by the course and run well, defying their odds, rather than just try to predict one winner for every race.
How can you say he WILL win… and then say he should be 4/7
surely if he WILL win then he should be 1.01 or no offer?
do you not understand probability?
of course he’s quite likely to win, the current odds indicate he has about a 50 percent chance of winning
But the task as a punter is to identify value, not mindlessly lump on every short priced favourite at the festival
it seems to me that you are thinking about the result too much, I’ve made this mistake at the festival before, maybe you are a newbie, however if I were you I would try and pick out horses that you feel will be suited by the course and run well, defying their odds, rather than just try to predict one winner for every race.
Trouble is there was nothing from you about backing 80/1 when the 80/1 was still available.
Then, at a time when the 80/1 was a thing of the past you told Charles that in your opinion West Approach “will definitely stay the novice route this year”. Only a while later, after the horse shortens up considerably for the Stayers Hurdle do we hear you actually had backed it all along…So, with 80/1 secretly in your pocket, why did you not come clean by saying so when Charles said “The worry is that connections would rather have a crack at the Stayers”?
Why reply by saying West Approach “will definitely stay the novice route this year”?I want to believe you Gord and anyway, you deserve credit for identifying West Approach as a good horse earlier than most. But when claims of massive prices first appear well after they’re gone and what is actually said in the meantime goes directly against those claims… you can’t blame people for being sceptical… And this isn’t the only horse it’s happened with.
Does being confident about any racehorse for any race during the season enable punters to get in a tardis and go back in time in order to take the long gone massive prices?
If wanting people to believe prices then TRFers should imo put them up when they’re still available or at least still close to the claimed price. Otherwise it smacks of aftertiming. Not saying you haven’t actually got the price. Even if the punter has got the price claimed, it enables him/her to only (or mainly) put up those who’ve shortened significantly since placing the bet, ie not most of those already lost or almost lost/lenthened.
As for me not knowing “what an 80/1 winner is until after the race”… Aurora’s Encore and Arabian Queen, both put up while their three figure prices were still available to TRFers.
Everyone knows you’re a good judge of horses Gord, no need to do this type of thing.
“Here we go again…Ooooooh,Catch me if yo can Ooooooh”..Ginge who was it asking on my ‘TAPK Army’ thread to put all those losing Ante-Post bets up?…I’ll give you a clue….The only Sceptic on here YOU! If you go back through the ‘Albert bartlett’ thread it was both Joe and I who were singing West approachs praises way back inthe season and he was actually trading at 130 for the Stayers then,he has traded as high as 450 but I managed to get 80’s down to 50’s,its what I do pal whether you believe me or not.Where you suggest the others I’ve magically jumped in my Dr Who tardis and claimed huge prices on will be Petit Mouchoir at 480’s and More of That at 1000’s for the National and probably Tartini at 80’s the only person in the world to get that price by the way for the Derby,but hey if you dont believe me who really cares?..Where you cover 90% of the field in a race,I cover the race itself so having slated Ruby for not catching the Stayers fav its obvious for those with an ounce of common sense that I think he could beat him in the big race itself.Like I’ve already stated if Mr Tizzard wants to do a ‘Mullins’ thats up to him but I’m going to make sure I cover both bases at the massive prices early doors so I have things covered for all events.I know you dont have the ability to use Foresight and time and again you have proved how inept you are regarding Ante-Post betting but being able to identify horses targets months in advance allows me the luxury to sell at least my stake money,ideally in running and trading short but hey I’m taking this to a level way above your capability…Oh and by the way West approach hasn’t actually ran in either race yet and certainly not won so just remember an 80/1 loser is just the same as a 1/10 loser.
Ginge, Gordon clearly put in his TAPK’s Army thread that he was on at 80s.
I was on at 110s Ginge, Gordon clearly put in his TAPK’s Army thread that he was on at 80s.
I was on at 110s Yes Zark, Gordon did “clearly put in his TAPK’s Army thread that he was on at 80s” on February 28th, that’s the point. First time we hear of the Stayers 80/1 was long after it had gone.
I was on @ 120’s.
Any advance on 120’s?
Value Is EverythingGinge, Gordon clearly put in his TAPK’s Army thread that he was on at 80s.
I was on at 110s Yes Zark, Gordon did “clearly put in his TAPK’s Army thread that he was on at 80s” on February 28th, that’s the point. First time we hear of the Stayers 80/1 was long after it had gone.
I was on @ 120’s.
Any advance on 120’s?
Ginge you are digging a hole for yourself here…Not for the first time either.Do you think everytime I place a bet I’m supposed to tell everyone on here?..You must be joking pal.I tell a select few on here my bets and thats via Facebook,they know who they are and you aint one of them…Now I see you and Zark are both on West approach at 120’s and 110’s respectively?…Obviously you can both prove those prices are accurate??
That way we can stop questioning each others integrity eh? We dont want to be checking the Betfair Histogram now do we boys? Ginge, Gordon clearly put in his TAPK’s Army thread that he was on at 80s.
I was on at 110s Yes Zark, Gordon did “clearly put in his TAPK’s Army thread that he was on at 80s” on February 28th, that’s the point. First time we hear of the Stayers 80/1 was long after it had gone.
I was on @ 120’s.
Any advance on 120’s?
Oh, I made a mistake. Yes, actually!
Anyway it’s nonsense to suggest Gordon should come on here after every bet he’s done to let us know what he’s done.
I wonder did Mullins just declare VVM for the mares in case something happens limini between now and Tuesday? If it reaches Tuesday with limini in good form then I could see VVM being withdrawn and declared for this race. She won over 3miles grade one leopardstown at Christmas so she wouldn’t be without a chance. Its just quite strange if ricci has 2 for the mares and none for either champion or stayers, that’s why I wouldn’t rule out VVM yet
I’ve been hoping TNO would head here and betting accordingly and have just taken 250 on Betfair for a fiver in case Twister turns him out again after the Champion Hurdle. If he disappoints there, and Sam isn’t too hard on him, I think there’s a reasonable chance we’ll see him again on Thursday.
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