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HENRY PARRY MORGAN 20/1 EW NRNB with sky bet for me.
In His races after the Hennessy he was travelling really well in his races before falling.
I’m hoping the handicapper drops him a few pounds to around 146 after his recent exter run. On best form this horse is very well handicapped, he was tanking in the bet 365 last year and his run behind native River is very good form.
Bowen’s horses are running well again. If he turns up he must have a chance if standing up.
HENRY PARRY MORGAN 20/1 EW NRNB with sky bet for me.
In His races after the Hennessy he was travelling really well in his races before falling.
I’m hoping the handicapper drops him a few pounds to around 146 after his recent exter run. On best form this horse is very well handicapped, he was tanking in the bet 365 last year and his run behind native River is very good form.
Bowen’s horses are running well again. If he turns up he must have a chance if standing up.
Problem is he is getting further and further away from his best form and may have ‘gone’ completely. Did you watch him at Exeter? He was comfortably the first horse beaten and looked as if he wasn’t interested. In his current state it is doubtful he would be competitive in any sort of race. I wouldn’t fancy him at 50/1.
Listening to G.Elliot at the Grand National Weights evening – Cause of Causes definately goes for the x country. I don’t get it myself as J.P. already has the fav and 3rd fav in the market. Full steam ahead on Champers on Ice now
Listening to G.Elliot at the Grand National Weights evening – Cause of Causes definately goes for the x country.
Wtf?????????????????????
That is absolutely bizarre.
I dont get it either. Elliot said it goes x country then National J.p’s already got 4 in the 1st 6 in a.p. betting so its a puzzler. Relies on Oscar knight by the look of it. William Hill nipped in Cause of Causes for the Ultima as i post. Crazy
JP might just have a few more up his cuff for The Ultima. I’ve bet Another Hero for The Kim Muir, but he’d be equally at home here, while Minella Foru could be a dark horse, while it would not surprise me one bit to see Bouvreil get stepped up in trip for this, and he has Pendra who has previously ran well in this. You can be sure there’s a plan for Shutthefrontdoor this year, but god know whether or not it’ll be here.
I like Oscar Knight as well, and but for a last fence blunder may just have landed The Paddy Power over Christmas. I was half thinking he could do a bit of damage in The Close Brothers Novices if he scrapes in.
JP might just have a few more up his cuff for The Ultima. I’ve bet Another Hero for The Kim Muir, but he’d be equally at home here, while Minella Foru could be a dark horse, while it would not surprise me one bit to see Bouvreil get stepped up in trip for this, and he has Pendra who has previously ran well in this. You can be sure there’s a plan for Shutthefrontdoor this year, but god know whether or not it’ll be here.
I like Oscar Knight as well, and but for a last fence blunder may just have landed The Paddy Power over Christmas. I was half thinking he could do a bit of damage in The Close Brothers Novices if he scrapes in.
Interesting point with Oscar Knight taking in the novice handicap. I’ve had tunnel vision for Hells Kitchen in that after watching it pull for 2m and still look like playing a part last time out. 136 from the irish handicapper for OK so it’ll be interesting to see how Phil rates it. Not sure Bouvreil gets the extra 4f so im a player in the plate.
Confirmed Cause of Causes doesn’t go, so I’ll probably stick with Holywell now, unless something jumps out at the weights.
The Druids Nephew – Neil Mulholland – Ultima Handicap Chase
“He won the Ultima off 146 and he’s back off 146 at the moment so he’s a course and distance winner off the same mark and hopefully he’s in good order. We think he’s every bit as good. Mark was riding him out the last day. We believe he’s every bit as good or maybe even a little bit better. We’re very happy with him.”
More than happy to hear that from a trainer in fine form at the moment. Missed the bigger prices but have had a couple of bets at 16/1….and glad to hear he’s ok and running as have heard nothing about the horse until now.
The Druids Nephew – Neil Mulholland – Ultima Handicap Chase
“He won the Ultima off 146 and he’s back off 146 at the moment so he’s a course and distance winner off the same mark and hopefully he’s in good order.
Has to be a serious player Jamie,incredible how a lay off gets the pounds off the back,this fellow gave 6lb to ‘The last Samurai’ in last years ‘Grimthorpe’,runs off 155 in the National and yet in only 2 runs since gets back down to the 146 he won the ‘Ultima’ off in 2015…My selection Holywell won the race in 2014 off 145 and has taken another 15 bloody runs to get down to 148…
Un Temps Pour Tout is annoying me. I’m envisaging a scenario where he runs as well as he did last year, wins at 16/1 and we are all kicking ourselves thinking how obvious a bet that would have been. Might have to stick a tenner on now
Will he go for the Stayers instead? Could feasibly place in that race, although I think there’s more prize money for the winner of this…
I think lurking out of sight A Good Skin at 33/1 NRNB represents some value; he surely won’t go off at those odds. He’ll need a few to drop out for sure, but a mark of 134 has been good enough to get in the past 3 years. He came second with a mark of 138 in last year’s Kim Muir and 3rd behind Potters Cross at Chepstow in October off 139. Always runs well at the course, trip and better ground to suit and if he does get in he’ll probably end up carrying 10 stone 5.
This is one of my favourite races of the season, possibly because it’s one of the few big handicap chases where I have a good record!
First of all, I’m sad to say that I think Holywell is the mug’s bet this year. I’ve backed him in two previous renewals, but anyone who can read a horse’s headcarriage and body language will know what happened at Doncaster. With ground to suit and his favourite headgear on, he dogged it. Like Johns Spirit in last year’s Plate, people will only look at his mark and his yard, they’ll see something that isn’t there and he’ll be overbet. I really think he’s gone.
Neil Mulholland has impressed me all season and rarely fails to deliver when the money is down. I took The Druids Nephew 16/1 e/w a few weeks ago. As a few people earlier in the thread highlighted, his chance is fairly obvious at the weights and you know he’ll be fully cranked up for this now connections have accepted that he doesn’t really relish the Aintree fences.
Of those prominent in the betting…
I don’t think Noble Endeavor‘s chance is as strong as the market suggests. He’d have to be on the fringes of Gold Cup class to win from his UK mark. Singlefarmpayment has quite a sexy profile but hardly screams value at 8s. Ibis Du Rheu isn’t obviously well-handicapped over fences. Henri Parry Morgan is well-treated and has been a mover this week but can you trust his jumping in a race like this?
I’m surprised to see Un Temps Pour Tout as big as 18/1 NRMB now and will probably take a piece of that in a minute. Obviously he has other options but don’t forget how impressive he was in this race last year. He’s only 7lbs higher and has been holding his form well over hurdles.
Most of the Irish horses have been whacked by the handicapper and it’s hard to see value at the really fancy prices. The Young Master isn’t bad at 20s with his Bet365 Gold Cup form working out so nicely. Maybe he’ll be forgotten amid other movers and tempt me in around 33s on the day. I toyed with A Good Skin too but he looks quite ungenuine nowadays so I’ll give that a swerve.
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