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Fabulous write up Bobby. But then again I wouldn’t expect anything else!!
I am on three here
SLOWMOTION who seems to be fancied by a few on here!!
KYLECRUE who won well lst time on soft ground and maybe will appreciate the three miles.
ARKWRISHT who might not get in but if it does then will be a danger to all IMOGood Luck Guys
I am working Wednesday so will have to watch it on replay!!Thanks Raymo
It’s such a hard race to call this year, that I think you need 3. I think I’ll be starting from scratch, as conditions look desperate, and no surprise to see Tempest not make the trip, as his best form is on a sounder surface.
I’ll be keeping my eyes peeled for the final decs, and take it from there, though pretty sure it’ll be A Toi Phil and/or Potters Point
I like Potters Point and so does the trainer. Kylecrue looks a good bet. Hard to call with the ground- most of the fit summer horses don’t like it/not declared/not tried on it and I don’t know which of the more winter-y horses will be fit and primed for it. Small stakes after final decs for me.
Took the 14s EW on Bay of Freedom based on his good run in the muck here last year- granted he didn’t beat much but a careful jumper anyhow. I think the trainer has his head screwed on too.
Tempest did get declared, but it’s hope rather than expectation for me, as with no form on going like this, it could be tough for him, but I remain hopeful.
As I said earlier, haven’t spent nearly as much on the race as I planned to, so can afford to have a few quid on my #2, and it’s going to be Potters Point to win at the 9’s. Lisa O’Neil up, and no stranger to big race success the last year, including in this, and she was in the winners enclosure last week too. Takes a handy 5lbs off, which in these conditions, is no bad thing, and I think he’s ahead of the handicapper anyway.
A Toi Phil will be bet as a saver (strictly to the penny), and I’ll have a sentimental few quid spread over old friends “just in case”, but happy to stick with Tempest and Potters as the main bets, and although I haven’t went as mad as I had always planned to in this race, they won’t be unwelcome either.
GL
I nearly forgot this race was tomorrow and only just finished scanning it.
A Toi Phil is the bet for me. He seems to thrive in these big field handicap chases, with his razorblade through-the-pack style really effective in this arena. I think the ground and stamina doubts are well overplayed with him since he has plenty of form on the gloop and finishes so strongly at slightly shorter trips. Unlike a few, he also has fitness and a hefty class edge guaranteed.
There’s a real smell of ‘unfinished business’ about Viva Steve (who does go particularly well fresh) so I might play him too if his price creeps out towards 16s tomorrow.
Cracking write up Bobby
The bet here is A Toi Phil each way in my opinion – as it so often is in these big field handicaps.
A Toi Phil each way @ 8/1 – 5 places Paddy power
Dr Segal has also found Viva Steve (and Arkwrisht). Might be struggling to get any 16/1 tomorrow unless I wake up early!
Superb write up, Bobby, as ever.
I think two or three will be overbet here so I’m looking for value away from the big guns and have settled on Bay of Freedom at 12/1.
He won here on his chasing debut and followed up next time at Wexford. He was fairly highly tried in his next 2 (Grade 2 and 3) and made no impression. He should appreciate this first chase outing in handicap company off his low weight.
In my usual self indulgent way I’ve added a couple – Potter’s Point win only- for the reasons you mention, and Elliot fancies him a bit.
Also Stellar Notion EW at 25s. You are right he ran no sort of race at Aintree, but I thought he went well at Fairyhouse and just paid the price for trying to live with Our Duke (as did the others making the running). He’s got more weight than some but is a big horse who I hope can handle it, and jumps well. May well get passed on the run in by rivals with less weight and more gears, but I’m hopeful he might hang on for a place.
My final list:
Potters Point win
Stellar Notion
Bay of Freedom
Bentelimar all EW.
Probably two too many but I like having a few chances in the big races and they are all small stakes.
Good luck all.VtC that preview is a great read.
Greenasgras, Abolitionist for me just now at 25-1. I bet him in The Irish Grand National and I would agree with VtC in that he does look like a standout price. I will bet one more but I will wait for day of race
Well no luck for me with Abolitionist, but I will be having another bet as planned. A Toi Phil didn’t do too badly for me at Galway so the 8-1 with 5 places looks a safe bet again.
Good luck everybody and I will probably be back in here this sfternoon with another choice.
I am happy my three have all turned up!! LOL
Just got to get one of them to win now!! Yes, jumps are back
Another who thinks A Toi Phil is the class horse of the race, and I’m also on Bay of Freedom each way. Good luck everyone
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