Kerry National 2017

This race is the first real sign that the proper jumps action isn’t far off, and with it coming so early in the season, it can be a hard hard race to work out.

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/190/listowel/2017-09-13/683956

The headline act here is obviously Coneygree, with Shaneshill as an able deputy. Coneygree would be a fascinating runner in this, and I’d expect him to head here, as connections have had it as long term objective. Considering his fragility though, he’d surely need conditions to be plum right for him, and even if he was an attractive enough price once a market is formed, I’d expect him to be of limited appeal at that stage. If things aren’t right, there are other options in The Autumn. I had my doubts about him coming back from his injuries, and was of the opinion that a combination of those knocks, and that brutal win at Cheltenham had taken their toll. His drubbing by Cue Card doesn’t read very well, and he only had a bloodless win at Sandown to his name since his big moment at Cheltenham, and it was easy to be sceptical about him. That was until Punchestown though. His narrow defeat to Sizing John, and the manner of his run that day, suggested he was back to his best, and if in the same form, should he indeed head here, then it’s hard to be negative about him. To be honest, his presence here puts me off an Ante-Post punt at this stage, but I’ll probably have a go anyway.

What about Shaneshill? Well, I’m a big fan, and always thought his game 2nd to Blaklion in The RSA, is a clear indication of his ability. On his day, Blaklion is a rock solid yardstick, and I gave Shaneshill a solid chance in The Galway Plate. He didn’t disappoint, and found only the impressive Balko Des Flos too good. What’s harder to forgive is his run later that week, where he looked well held by Arbe De Vrie. He made a jolting error that day, but I don’t think it would have made any difference, and though I’d expect him to be near the head of the market, I doubt whether he’ll appeal Ante-Post either. I would expect him to head here though, and he still looks a major player. Arbe De Vrie himself has to be considered. After a few blips, including when well beaten at Cheltenham, he has got his act together. He also took in that Galway Plate, eventually finishing 6th, which was more than acceptable, and I’d be happy with his second to Woodlands Opera at Punchestown. 5lb rise for his Galway win is fair, this looks his perfect distance, and loads to like.

One horse aside, the first ten home in that Galway Plate are entered here. It was an agonising race for me with Slowmotion, A Toi Phil, and Sandymount Duke, finishing 3rd, 4th, and 5th, so near yet so far. I’m a big fan of all 3, and remain so for this prize as well.

Slowmotion has loads going for her, and since the turn of the year, she’s been particularly consistent. I don’t think a 3lb rise is harsh at all, and though there would be slight question marks over the trip, she’s worth a try at it, and for a horse who’s future I believe is in Graded Company, she still looks well in to me, though I doubt she’ll be much of a price here. A Toi Phil is a horse I have loads of time for. He’s another who I believe, in time, we’ll see outwith handicaps, though races of this nature would appear to be perfect for the timebeing. He has winning form in this type of event, as seen at Leapordstown in January, and though at times you could say he isn’t the most straightforward ride, he has acquitted himself well in Graded Company, and another step up in trip, look’s just what he needs. The 1lb rise for Sandymount Duke might just look a tad harsh, but he has been in fine form the last year, and I’d argue that conditions weren’t ideal for him at Punchestown, and he did run very well for a long way. There’s a good chance there’s more improvement in him, and going left handed could just be the key to unlock that extra couple of pounds. Smashing horse, with bags of potential, and from a top yard, so has to be on the shortlist.

Slightly further down the field that day at Galway, in 7th, was a very interesting candidate in the shape of Shanpallas. Very impressive winner of The Munster National three years ago, and the sky looked the limit for him. He won that day for JP, who had bought him after a very creditable third in this race, and staying chases looked his for the taking. For reasons not quite clear though, possibly JP had just too much ammo in that sphere at the time, they’ve given the impression they don’t quite know what to do with him, and he’s mixed hurdles and fences with limited success. What that limited success has done though, has seen him slip down the weights nicely, and though he’s only got his head in front once since that Munster National success, he’s put in a few nice rounds. He wouldn’t want it too soft, but I’m hoping that conditions would be in his favour here, and he’s only a pound higher than he was that day at Limerick. I’m hoping he’s a price, as I might be tempted. Surely they’ll share my belief that this is just the right type of race for him.

Behind Shanpallas at Galway, were the Giggs pair, Lord Scoundrel, and Road To Riches. Lord Scoundrel was a game winner of The Galway Plate last year, and though he wouldn’t have won this, he was still in contention when tipping up two out. He is a very likeable sort, and didn’t fare too badly out of handicaps last term, but despite that, I just feel that he needs a hand from the assessor. Road To Riches is always popular in these events, and does tend to get gambled. He looks very well handicapped on his old form, but he has done for a while now. That effort behind behind Coneygree at Cheltenham might just have knocked the stuffing out of him, and despite the obvious prospect of it all clicking into place for him, his recent form leaves him hard to recommend.

Also running in the Giggs colours, could be Potters Point, and Arkwrisht. Arkwrisht had a fine time of it last month for Joseph O’Brien, both times at Kilbeggan. On his first go, he only found A Rated too good, and that horse has won again since, while he really was impressive when winning on his next visit to the track. Touch and go to get in, but a complete unknown quantity in this type of contest, and impossible to write off with any confidence. Potters Point looks very interesting indeed. He won nicely last time, is a complete model of consistency, and represents last years winning connections. Despite that consistency, he still looks way ahead of the handicapper, and although he wouldn’t be the most high profile of Gigginstown contenders, I’m very interested. Trip should pose no problems.

Ellmarie Holden has Sir Jack Yeats down near the bottom of the weights, and he’s another who’s had a fine summer, but he might just be touch and go to get in. Her Abolitionist though, doesn’t face such worries, and after working wonders with him last season, she has him in here with a live chance. Quite simply a major player, and with a second to Empire of Dirt in The Troytown, a win in The Leinster National, and a third to Our Duke at Fairyhouse, he must surely take a hand. He’ll also strip fitter for a recent spin over hurdles, and it’ll be interesting to see how the firms guage him.

Also fresh from a spin over hurdles is my old pal Aranhill Chief. His summer form the last few years has been excellent, and he’s developed into a real favourite of mine. He’ll no doubt have a sentimental couple of quid of mine his way, but his last 2 runs suggest that age might be catching up with him, and off of 3lbs higher in this last year, he didn’t feature. Hard to recommend him, but I would love to see him do it, albeit he probably won’t get in anyway.

Another interesting contender, fresh from a run over timber, is this years Summer Cup winner, Tempestatefloresco. He won well that day at Uttoxeter for Colin Tizzard, though you could argue that it was far from a vintage renewal. That completed a 3 timer for him, and he’s climbing up the weights nicely, he’s certainly entitled to do. The trip the other day at Newton Abbot was clearly to keep him ticking over, and it was clear to me that it was a prep for something, though I was still surprised to see him in here, and he just makes the race even more difficult, as he definitely has another win in him.

Art of Payroll and Viva Steve could also make the journey across The Irish Sea. After flattering to deceive for a couple of years, Payroll has clearly thrived for the switch to Harry Fry, and there was loads to like about his most recent win, which gave him 2 on the bounce, following his swansong for Sandra Hughes. He looked good that day, and though this will be miles tougher, the trainer can send them over to win, and he shouldn’t disgrace himself. Viva Steve has been out of sorts in his recent runs, but I like the fact that he’s with Fergal O’Brien, and he looks ideal for a decent handicap on home shores later in the year, and I’ll (very) reluctantly pass him over here for now.

Henry De Bromhead has Stellar Notion, Heron Heights, and On Fiddlers Green lined up for this, and all 3 are on recovery missions. Stellar Notion looked one to keep on side of after going down narrowly to A Toi Phil at Leapordstown, and this was off the back of placing in The Paddy Power, and finding only a bang on song Tiger Roll, in The Munster National. If back to his best, he’s not out of it, and he’s certainly weighted to run well, but his last 2 runs, in The Grand National, and The Irish equivalent, were very poor. I’ll pass him over here, and keep him in mind for The Munster National, a race I also have in mind for Heron Heights. His third to Sizing Codelco at Punchestown is solid, but he’s been poor since, and has obvious questions to answer. Again, next month at Limerick appeals to me more for him. On Fiddlers Green was one of my big hopes for The Summer, and he didn’t let me down at Roscommon in June. He won very nicely at that night, but the wheels came off next time at Galway, and he ran no sort of race. It’s quite possible though that the ground was dead against him that day, as I don’t think that being raised to 136 was the reason, so if he had conditions in his favour, then he’s not one to pass over lightly, and I’ll take a check on his opening price.

Haymount is another on a recovery mission. There was more than one run last season that highlighted his ability, not least his third in The NH Chase at Cheltenham, but he was terrible at Galway, and I’m unaware of anything that came to light, and he looks risky off the back of that. If back to the form of last season, then not out of it by any stretch, but I’d like to know his wellbeing. This hasn’t been the most successful race for Mullins, and after being a real “talking horse” last year, The Crafty Butcher hasn’t delivered. I haven’t forgotten his run at Leapordstown though, and he should sneak in here. I’ll be watching the market with interest for this one in particular.

Mountain Kingdom is another from the Elliot yard, and things finally clicked for him last time, winning very easily at Perth, with subsequent impressive winner, Brave Spartacus, comfortably taken care of. Not unduly hammered for that, and not out of the question that he can finally achieve his potential, but this is altogether tougher.

Kilcarry Bridge isn’t getting any younger, but in my opinion he’s never been better. Tidy winner last time, and although maybe pushing it for win purposes, he could be one for the places, and looks the type who might just get underrated, and he might just open at a nice price. Put a line through his Sligo run, and he’s had a very solid summer. Each way potential I reckon, though if his stablemate Kylecrue sneaked in, then I’d be turning my attention to him. He was as good as ever last Autumn, running some very solid races, and he’s been given a proper chance by the handicapper. Another who’s had a spin over hurdles recently, and he’s bound to be a nice price. Maybe won’t win, but looks very much one for the 5 place concessions, should he make it.

Bentelimar is a similar sort, in that he has been fairly steady this summer, and bar an unseat at Galway, he’s always one to run his race. As likeable as he is though, I’ve always thought of him as just short of this kind of test. He should get in though, and I’d certainly favour him over Jarob, and Champagne Harmony, who also look like just making it in.

There’s 41 entered in total then, and I’d expect the majority to stand their ground, which is a shame for the likes of Phil’s Magic, Riviera Sun, and Sea Light, who all caught my eye when I seen the entries.

It’s probably for the best that it’s not priced up, as with Coneygree in there, it’s a hard hard race to call. Top weight wouldn’t concern me at all, and if on his “A Game” he’ll surely be incredibly hard to beat, I think he looks well treated. He’s not the easiest to keep sound though, and that does leave me wanting to have a go.

I’m torn between my Galway Plate trio of Slowmotion, A Toi Phil, and Sandymount Duke, and I will bet one of them. Which one though? It’s a tough old call, and 3 very nice horses. It may make sense to hold on then, and I just hope they don’t all make the gig. Gun to my head, and it will be A Toi Phil.

A Toi Phil then, and I’m also very keen on Tempestatefloresco, Potters Point, and Shanpallas, but it is just so hard to call, and it is very tentative shortlist at this stage.

Opening Market will be key here, as will Coneygrees participation, so after all that, I’m actually pleased there isn’t a market yet.

GL