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He has until the 20th of march to come in the top 4 in a 3 mile plus chase.
Maybe this idea would be shot down immediately but we are talking about the richest jumps race in Britain, surely it should be a requirement of entry that a horse must have won a 3 mile plus steeplechase by the day before the weights are published.
I have long thought a rule along those lines would be for the best thewexfordman, though it’s hard to reconcile with the maiden Rule The World winning last year!
It also seems wrong that horses with good course form/long-distance form such as Alvarado are almost certain not to get a run. I’d like to see any horse that has placed in the National or won the Becher Chase previously receive automatic qualification provided they still have a rating above the minimum required.
Marlingford/Wex, totally agree, since they’ve introduced this rule, I keep expecting common sense to kick in, and that it should be a requirement for entry, rather than the current set up, it just feels wrong.
The problem with the second example though Marlingford is that is highly unfair. I’d be absolutely fuming if I owned a horse, who missed out because of a highly regressive horse who happened to finish 4th in a National 3 years earlier, or had won a Becher a couple of years back. Previous course form round Aintree is absolutely no guarantee that they’ll repeat it, and the races history is littered with course “specialists” who were anything but. This also applies to a lot of runners who have fared well in the recognisable staying chases.
I just feel that we tend to overthink it a bit, and bar some sort of indication that they can at least deal with 3 miles at a minimum (and I recognise that that new criteria is far from ideal), then it is a handicap, and the best 40 get in, there really is no justification to confuse matters.
Sorry Honey’s, but I really disagree with this.
Pendra’s last 4 runs………….Ran very fair race in National last year, after a long layoff, on ground softer than ideal for him. Long layoff was a result of going lame when about to make the frame in highly competitive Sodexo Silver Cup in Ascot, a few weeks after winning the equally competitive Sodexo Gold Cup at the same venue, and before that, finished 5th in The Ultima Handicap at The Cheltenham Festival.
I’m not saying that there aren’t many examples in the past of horses being shafted, missing out due to horses who had no right to be there, but this example is very unfair on Pendra. It would be a worrying state of affairs if Pendra had to make way for Alvarado who has done nothing this season to suggest that he deserves any kind of special treatment.
Ps no harm to Alvarado either, and he must have a live chance at Ayr, and I’m sure if there were a miracle, and he sneaked in here, he would do himself proud. Also, Pendra is by no means certain to make the race, having been on the sidelines since last years race, and is touch and go.
Fairly happy with how things have went with that lot, though still work to be done.
From the original entries the last one to get in on the day last year was 59th on the list, but this was the exception, and I think it’ll be back down to around 72-77 on the list this year. I’m fairly confident that Doctor Harper can sneak in, and he could be a warm order if he impresses in wherever he has his prep, and he’s number 71.
Hoping most of these make it though, (a couple definitely won’t) and hope that the recently scratched Otago Trail is the end of the bad luck…………….though I seriously doubt it going by previous years lol.
Good luck everyone who’s having an early go
Had a quick glance and I real fancy THE YOUNG MASTER after reading this quote from his trainer after winning last season’s Sandown Gold Cup “The Young Master was bought for a National. This was the stepping stone towards it next year”
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.I’ve already bet THE YOUNG MASTER at 33/1 some time ago, although
with the way he took to the National fences in the Becher Chase, to be honest I’m
surprised he still heads here, he was very disappointing. Unless he just had a
bad hair day, I’m living in more hope than expectation. I thought last year he
looked exactly the right type for this, but the money is down so I just have to
hope they can get him more enthusiastic about his task than he showed in the
Becher. He has the right man on board if nothing else.You would have to go back some way to find the last 7 year old winner of the
National, 1940 to be precise, when Bogskar did the business. The nearest there’s
been of late are 3 8 year old winners in the past 25 years, the most recent
being the magnificent Many Clouds 2 years past. Nonetheless, I’m taking a
chance on LE MERCUREY at 66/1 5 places with Paddy Power.He seems to have been a bit of a forgotten horse of late. He’s not won since
his decisive beating of Bristol De Mai in the Future Champion Novices’ Chase
at Ayr last April, which was one of the reasons I had a few quid on him in
the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury at the weekend. He was 14/1 outsider in
the 3 horse affair, but he acquitted himself well enough, finishing ahead of
BDM again, and just over 3L behind Native River, only in receipt of 1lb. He
also finished about the same distance behind Many Clouds at Aintree over 3m 1f
in December, in receipt of 5lb, with 43L back to Irish Cavalier. I think there’s
some seriously good form here, and he runs off the same 151 that he did for
finishing just over 3L behind Native River, and what price would he be now if
he were down to run? My worry is that Nicholls might have thoughts about keeping him
back for another year or so, but he did run Unioniste 2 years ago at 7 years, and
although he was unfortunate to come down quite early, he was not unfancied at 16/1.
Cause Of Causes, at 7 years, didn’t do too badly that year either finishing 8th.
Vieux Lion Rouge was another 7 year old who was right there challenging last year
until he tired 2 out and finished 7th.So I think there still is a case to be made for a 7 year old if good enough. I think
he is well worth his place, and at 66/1 and carrying 10-9 I just can’t not have a
punt. I hope Nicholls is bold here and gives him his chance
Had a quick glance and I real fancy THE YOUNG MASTER after reading this quote from his trainer after winning last season’s Sandown Gold Cup “The Young Master was bought for a National. This was the stepping stone towards it next year”
I thought back then that he was a National winner in waiting Red Rum. I’ve also followed him
for the last couple of seasons and I think a lot of the horse. I can’t pretend I wasn’t very
disappointed when he ran in the Becher, he didn’t seem as enthusiastic and was well out of it
when he fell 2 out. I hope that was just a bad day for him, but if I’m honest I’m a little
less enthusiastic about his chances than I was. Having said that, every horse has a bad day,
I hope that’s his out of the way. Good luck if you’re backing him , I’d love to see him win
thisAny other Blaklion backers here? Gonna top up on him before the trial race, they’ve done well to keep him at 10-10.
Elliot must be bitterly disappointed with Outlander, although it’s no surprise. He’s always said how much of a National horse he is. Can see him running like a pig for the next season and a half just to get him down for next year.
All depends on whether Gigginstown would prefer a good run for their money in a Gold Cup, or in a National. I know what I’d pick.
So Mr Smith thinks a horse placed in two grand nationals and second in last years Scottish national shouldn’t get a run but the likes of Pendra and co should ,I despair
Plenty of unmarked used jiffy bags in his recycling
Marlingford/Wex, totally agree, since they’ve introduced this rule, I keep expecting common sense to kick in, and that it should be a requirement for entry, rather than the current set up, it just feels wrong.
The problem with the second example though Marlingford is that is highly unfair. I’d be absolutely fuming if I owned a horse, who missed out because of a highly regressive horse who happened to finish 4th in a National 3 years earlier, or had won a Becher a couple of years back. Previous course form round Aintree is absolutely no guarantee that they’ll repeat it, and the races history is littered with course “specialists” who were anything but. This also applies to a lot of runners who have fared well in the recognisable staying chases.
I just feel that we tend to overthink it a bit, and bar some sort of indication that they can at least deal with 3 miles at a minimum (and I recognise that that new criteria is far from ideal), then it is a handicap, and the best 40 get in, there really is no justification to confuse matters.
I agree there are plenty of horses who’ve shone brightly at Aintree once but not reproduced the form a second time. However, the course definitely still has it’s share of specialists, and I think seeing the same familiar names turning up is part of the race’s wider public appeal – it was this aspect that first drew me into racing as a child! I’m not saying that hopeless cases should be given priority though, hence the need for the handicapper to still be happy the horse is worth a mark above the minimum requirement.
I know the handicapper already has the ability to increase weights to allow for the “Aintree factor”, but the marks of the entrants are so high now that it’s difficult for any horse to maintain a sufficiently high mark for multiple return visits, and I think this is to the character of the race’s detriment.
I can totally see where you are coming from when talking about fairness though Venture as I’d be none too pleased if it was my higher-rated horse who missed out. I don’t think there’s much risk of this happening though as I know it was discussed after Pineau De Re and Alvarado missed out last year, and there seemed no appetite for change then. Would still like a “won over three miles at the time of entry” rule though!
I agree with a lot of that Marlingford, and although the current nature of the race prevents it, I do myself miss the big National horses returning year after year. Very much like yourself, this was a lot of the appeal when I was growing up. Sadly though, I think those days are long behind us, and it would just be unfair now.
I doubt there’s an easy answer to it, and I don’t think there’s a solution that would suit everyone.
Now to find the winner haha
Hope your spread of 72 to 77 proves correct VTC. goodtoknow would make the cut on 64 tx to hcpr giving 7lb more
Backed trio of Cause of Causes 40/1, Double Shuffle 66s and Cocktails at Dawn 80s after weights launch.
Quite keen now on Vicente tomorrow Nath, and he’s still available at 14’s, that looks fair to me.
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