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I really like Yanworth. Think the fact he stays further than two miles is in his favour and neither Annie power or Faugheen have done anything this season.
I’ve come round to him too Judge. I didn’t think he might be heading to the Champion
Hurdle earlier, but I do think that’s the plan now. It’s been mentioned before that
he needs further, and I’d probably agree over less demanding courses, but with the pace
the CH will be run at and the stamina sapping finish, I think it will be right up his
street. I’ve no idea where Willie will send Annie Power and Faugheen, so I think the
5/1 on offer is worth chancing. I’ve added him to my ante posts.The more I think about Yanworth winning, the less I think he has a chance.
The New One beat Hargam 1/2L in 2015 when finishing 7L behind Faugheen. Kempton doesn’t seem to be his track. MTOY’s last victory over hurdles was against TNO at Kempton.
And Yanworth was hard off the bridle for a very long time and beat TNO 3 1/2L. Puts him streets behind an on-song Faugheen.
I really like Yanworth. Think the fact he stays further than two miles is in his favour and neither Annie power or Faugheen have done anything this season.
Annie is never usually out this early. They like to wrap her in cotton wool for whatever reason. She will have a run in February and then will go to defend her title in March. If Willie is concerned that she is not at her best then she will be heading to The Mares. This will definitely be her last year racing.
Faugheen is coming back from injury and we should see him at the Irish Champion Hurdle at the end of the month.
The more I think about Yanworth winning, the less I think he has a chance.
The New One beat Hargam 1/2L in 2015 when finishing 7L behind Faugheen. Kempton doesn’t seem to be his track. MTOY’s last victory over hurdles was against TNO at Kempton.
And Yanworth was hard off the bridle for a very long time and beat TNO 3 1/2L. Puts him streets behind an on-song Faugheen.
TNO ran well when 2nd to a top form MTOY back in 2013, not at his best in the two other Kempton runs.
Value Is EverythingThe more I think about Yanworth winning, the less I think he has a chance.
The New One beat Hargam 1/2L in 2015 when finishing 7L behind Faugheen. Kempton doesn’t seem to be his track. MTOY’s last victory over hurdles was against TNO at Kempton.
And Yanworth was hard off the bridle for a very long time and beat TNO 3 1/2L. Puts him streets behind an on-song Faugheen.
The point I was making about Yanworth, is that I think the race will play to his strengths. I wouldn’t have
been at all surprised had he been beaten last time out at Kempton. He really needs more than 2m, and needed
a bit of stoking up to keep with the pace at one point, but the further they went, the better he went. The
Champion Hurdle will be run very differently from the Kempton race, and I think stamina will give him an edge
in the slog up the hill in the final furlong.No disputing My Tent Or Yours beat The New One 1/2L at Kempton in 2013, and I can see where you are coming
from with that in relation to TNO subsequently finishing 7L behind Faugheen last December at Kempton, but
I’m not sure that the race over 3 years ago and that of Yanworth beating TNO 3 1/2L a week ago gives a clear
comparison of Yanworth’s chance against Faugheen next March. Nonetheless, if a fully fit Faugheen turns up
for this, he wins. The problem I have with Faugheen is not how good a horse he is, it is whether he has, or
indeed if ever he does, fully recover from the ligament injury which has kept him off the racecourse for the
best part of a year. I’m not about to accept the reassurances from the Mullins camp that all is well, not to
mention whether or not he will be aimed at this race if he does get to Cheltenham. If you want to take the
5/2 on offer, be my guest. Personally, I wouldn’t touch it with a barge pole.Looks as though Annie power won easily the worst champion hurdle in recent times. And this years renewal looks like it won’t be much better.
It wasnt the true running of NC but struggled to even come second to Ivanovich.
Petit mouchouir looks good and is in good hands. Won’t be a decent price now because it’s such a weak race. Faugheen will win the champion hurdle injured or not
Fastest champion hurdle of all time – 3 mins 45. 3 seconds faster than Istabraq previous record holder
Isn’t Cockney Rebel the fastest ever 2000 Guineas winner?
Ah sorry no, it’s 1 Mister Baileys, 2 Pennekamp, 3 Cockney Rebel…
I must admit watching a replay of Yanworth at kempton he did look a bit laboured but I think it’s the track which will play to his strengths, as you say Big G mate.
Cheltenham will definitely suit him better, but he got out-turned-of-foot by Yorkhill in the Neptune and it’ll happen again in this.
Taken the 33/1 each way for MTOY
Race looks like it’ll cut up badly. MTOY will run here 100% if fit. Ran a cracker on reappearance in this race last year.
Also took the 2/1 on Faugheen immediately after the race last year assuming he’d come back fit and raring to go. He hasn’t. It’s only in a multi but frustrating the first three in that went in on the flat. Would love to see him win but it’s a big ask from Mullins to get him race fit to win a champion hurdle.
Cheltenham will definitely suit him better, but he got out-turned-of-foot by Yorkhill in the Neptune and it’ll happen again in this.
I get your point Zark, you’ve made it clear several times that you don’t think he will win,
fair enough. But as I mentioned on a similar vein on another thread, you might want to
mention what you think will win rather than just explain why others fancies haven’t a hope in
hell.The race is just so open, Big G. Of course I’ll hold fire until the day before deciding anything, but I’d expect something to beat him. Just so many horses have ?s next to their names; Faugheen, Annie Power, Yorkhill, Buveur D’Air, Vroum Vroum Mag, Apples Jade, Nichols Canyon, The New One. In fact it’s difficult to find a horse without a ? next to their name.
I’m on MTOY EW at 50s (not expecting to get anything on the win part) and I’ve backed L’Ami Serge at 95s and 100s with the intention of laying in-running, if he turns up. He’s headed to the Haydock Champion Hurdle trial and I’d expect him to make easy work of that, barring another 155/160+ animal turning up. I think people were a bit harsh on him (myself included). It’s not like he completely stopped, he did fight on as you can see after the line. The race was run on the new course on soft-heavy ground. It was practically a 2m 6f race. Back on the old course, on quickish ground, I can definitely see him cruising 2 out. Go back and watch the Supreme, he was hampered on 3 occasions. The first problem might have ended most horses’ race, but he quickly came back on the bridle and I think he’s a classy animal.
I actually came in this thread to post a link to an article posted today, in which it’s reported that neither Faugheen nor Annie Power have sparkled in any piece of work this season, completely contradicting Ruby Walsh who said that Faugheen was going really well.
On MTOY @ 50’s ew as well. Madness of a price IMO. Like you say Zark, not betting to win but think it is a great place bet
On MTOY @ 50’s ew as well. Madness of a price IMO. Like you say Zark, not betting to win but think it is a great place bet
He couldn’t even come in the first 3 in a terrible christmas hurdle, in what was effectively a 4 runner race. Hardly a good bet for him to therefore be placed in a champion hurdle. Your relying on him showing form that he simply hasn’t got this season. Clearly not the same horse that was second to jezki, or even second to Annie power last year. I just can’t see it myself. I’d even go as far as to say he should run in the county hurdle or something like that.
Definitely a lot of question marks in this one Zark, particularly with the two at the head
of the market. It’s one of the reasons I thought Yanworth was in with a shout, I had real
doubts about Faugheen seeing a racecourse again this year. As I mentioned in a previous post
on here, I wasn’t about to accept the reassurances coming out of the Mullins Camp, that all
was well, whether it came from from Ruby or Willie. Thanks for the link, it makes interesting
reading and gives a bit of substance to my feelings that all was not well for Faugheen and
Annie Power. If those two don’t trap, there aren’t many that would stick out like a sore thumb,
it does, as you say, make it quite open.I agree with you on L’Ami Serge’s run in the Relkeel, I thought it was a good run and he did
everything bar win. He seems to have had a bit of a bad press for a while, which I think is
unwarranted, I think he’s a very decent horse. I mentioned in the Stable Stars thread a few
days back, that I stupidly missed the transfer window for this week and that the horse I was
going to transfer in was L’Ami Serge, as I thought he’d win the Relkeel. As it happens, it
didn’t make any difference, and I didn’t lose out, as he lost. I’d have been pig sick watching
him go down by a head when he looked all over the winner. I’m not sure where he will head at the
Festival, he takes 2m 4f well, but if were to come up on the soft side I wouldn’t be surprised
to see him in the CH. If he does get there, your odds of 95 and 100/1 look HUGE. He’s always in
the mix and I think he has sound place credentials at the very least. Good luck with him
On MTOY @ 50’s ew as well. Madness of a price IMO. Like you say Zark, not betting to win but think it is a great place bet
He couldn’t even come in the first 3 in a terrible christmas hurdle, in what was effectively a 4 runner race. Hardly a good bet for him to therefore be placed in a champion hurdle. Your relying on him showing form that he simply hasn’t got this season. Clearly not the same horse that was second to jezki, or even second to Annie power last year. I just can’t see it myself. I’d even go as far as to say he should run in the county hurdle or something like that.
The Xmas hurdle run wasn’t terrible at all. MTOY was travelling powerfully turning in, alongside Yanworth at the second and made a mistake at the last placing him outside the top 3 for the 1st time in his career. He was far from disgraced and Yanworth had 37 days to get over Ascot whilst MTOY had 15 days to recover from Cheltenham – I think there is a strong case to be made for the race coming too soon. He will be wrapped up now until Cheltenham where he will be fresh and we all saw how well that worked last year. This horse has never reached superstar status and I have been on the losing end of backing him a number of times, however – his consistency to place, natural speed, hendo’s record in the race, coupled with all the question marks surrounding the market principals, make 50/1 a very decent price to be looking for a place. People are quick to forget the 2nd last year where he actually ran a quicker time on softer ground that when Faugheen won the race in 2015. Plenty of 9 year olds have won the CH, he retains plenty of ability and I think 50/1 is big when all these factors are taken into account.
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