2017 Champion Hurdle

I am not worried about Yanworth

you will be by the end

Never have so many words being wasted when the answer is staring you all in the face.

And the answer is Yanworth

hayper wrote:

Very good judgment Steve No shadow of a doubt Brain Power is the most likely winner, he just looks like a proper Champion Hurdle horse, where fav Yanworth is highly overrated, even Alan King didn’t believed he had a champion hurdle horse. Yanworth’s form this season is more less the same to form he showed in last year’s Neptune, no sign of the any big improvement, if he runs tomorrow to his official 164 mark and wins Champion Hurdle it will mean ‘he cheated his genes’, because his pedigree looks awful in the champion hurdle contest.

Yanworth is overrated? I don’t think so. This is a horse who battles, who knows how to get it done, he’s the kind of horse who might not look flashy but only just does enough. He’s the type of horse you want on your side at Cheltenham. Don’t say I haven’t warned you.

Very rarely are these type of horses “overrated”

I can be wrong about BP, so don’t worry…I really wish for you Yanworth to win tomorrow (I had this horse in some multiples couple months ago), good luck Judge with your selection!

Being a strong stayer is never a bad thing in a champion hurdle Ham. Look at some of the previous winners- Sublimity, Hardy Eustace, Rock on Ruby. No doubt they were taking on more brilliant horses who were strongly fancied to beat them. Harchibald traded at 1.01 in Hardy Eustaces 2nd champion win.

Anyway I’ve said enough about Yanworth. Just hope I haven’t jinxed him and he’ll probably get stuffed now

It’s funny how so many see it differently.

I had to find myself disagreeing with the At The Races Verdict writer, who said that Buveur D’air’s last 4 wins prove he is much improved. He won at Aintree by a neck from Petit Mouchoir, who came into the race rated 7 lbs inferior, at odds of 40/1. Buveur D’air then won two Novice Chases at odds-on, unconvincingly enough to warrant a switch back to Hurdles where he beat palm trees at odds of 1/4F.

I see nothing there that guarantees improvement. Buveur D’air went down 1 lb for the Aintree run but has somehow risen 6 lbs, presumably based on his last run, where he faced Irving as the deemed biggest threat as 2nd Fav. Irving was rated 160 going into that race but it was no secret that he was highly unlikely to run anywhere near that mark. Irving has already been dropped to 155 and based on his latest effort you could probably lop another stone off that mark comfortably. Few horses can have run as dismally, as many times, as Irving and he’s not reliable as a yardstick to my mind.

Buveur D’air may indeed improve but it worries me that this race was not the plan at the start of the season and his form this season looks as flimsy as a Chinese Lantern.

I’d say it’s a significant negative to BP that NJH opted to suppliment BD for the race. I couldn’t have him on my mind for this as his first race outside handicap company. Yanworth lacks the 2m jumping fluency and out of the principles I’d favour BD as a solid EW play.

In a race like this of so many horses with similar ratings it’s the jockey that makes the difference. Footpad and BD against the field for me.

milbear0 wrote:

I’d say it’s a significant negative to BP that NJH opted to suppliment BD for the race. I couldn’t have him on my mind for this as his first race outside handicap company. Yanworth lacks the 2m jumping fluency and out of the principles I’d favour BD as a solid EW play.

In a race like this of so many horses with similar ratings it’s the jockey that makes the difference. Footpad and BD against the field for me.

BD going for this is far more of a negative for Yanworth than it is Brain Power, based on what both have achieved and where they are in the market

Ch’Tibello out – pus in foot

Benn a desperate antepost festival for many, running right up to hours before the off