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Can’t pass up 3/1 on Sizing John myself, I can’t see how he isn’t favourite for this. Slight worry in case the market is suggesting he won’t turn up but I’d kick myself if he did and I didn’t take that price…
connections are saying hes running as mr potts wanted to go for the 1mil bonus, unless the horse picks an injury up after hearing rp on atr tonight alongside harringtons RP comments, everythinga pointing to him showing..
As i said ^ up there, 3/1 is waayyyyy too big, i couldnt stay away from it myself either
Hope you’re right Ham – it looks a very win-able renewal for him to get a Triple Crown bid off to a flying start!
Fair point on laying, GT, but I’m not a layer at heart. I’d sooner miss backing a winner at 7-2 than laying one at 13-8. There are some horses I just cannot call correctly and BDM is one. Also, a clear round by Cue Card would see him in with big chance. Sizing John is another I cannot yet draw a conclusion on. My suspicion is that he won a poor Gold Cup but that doesn’t make him a poor winner if you know what I mean and if I had to nominate a value bet at this stage it would be SJ
I don’t think sizing John will make the final declarations here.
In the interview JH gave on Sunday she appears to be preparing the public that this won’t run.
Harrington said: “It was what Alan [Potts] wanted. He said after Punchestown he’d love to go for the million pound bonus and said to me ‘do you think it’s possible’. I said anything is possible, let’s try and aim him at that and see if it all happens but he understood horses aren’t always right, or get there.”
This comment says to me that she doesn’t want to run him for the good of the horse but is smart enough to realise there could be some public backlash if she doesn’t follow Potts wishes to go for the bonus. This interview is full of excuses- jokes about the horse needing weight watchers, the ground not being ideal and going to the trouble of telling us Potts would understand.
I don’t think it’s running personally though we find out soon.
The interview she gave today suggested it was running but the words in the sunday one is the one that I find intriguing.
https://www.racinguk.com/news/jessica-harringon-cautious-ahead-of-sizing-john-s-return-in-betfair-chaseI’m on traffic FLUIDE at 25/1 -3 places and I wouldn’t t swap it for anything. Bristol is undoubtedly the horse to beat here and the only horse I fear from the win point of the bet.
Outlander is the only other danger to traffic FLUIDE and I’m not certain that will run though it certainly appears to be at this stage.Robbie Power was on On The Line this evening and he seemed fairly confident Sizing John would line up. He also mentioned it was Potts’ wish for the horse to run here, but he also gave a more practical reasoning for his involvement, saying that the ground shouldn’t be a problem for the Gold Cup winner, listing off a number of his achievements on soft or heavy ground.
I can’t tell whether the 3/1 on the horse is down to Bristol De Mai being so strongly fancied, or whether the fact that he may not run is factored into the price, but to me that would be a great price on the day. Jessie’s comments mentioned by potato don’t inspire total confidence however, so I will leave him to the day and see how the market goes. If he’s declared and there’s 3/1 around I’ll be all over it quite frankly, he was always going to be an underrated winner of the Gold Cup and it seems the market is doing exactly that.
I disagree with the comments suggesting Bristol de Mai is an inconsistent horse.
Had one bad run in February at Newbury when expected to win but that run aside he looks very consistent.Any other bad run can be easily accounted for- ran in April 2016 and 2017 and was below form in those 2 runs. Many horses are over the top by that stage of the season.
Needed first run last season but he wasn’t 100% first time up then and was trained to improve on the run.
They targeted the Charlie hall chase this year and he did it well.I would love to be wrong and hope this horse is inconsistent and runs a bad race but I don’t see it. French bred will relish the ground, fit, in form and loves flat tracks especially haydock where he is 2/2 and 6 of the last 12 winners came via the Charlie hall.
Fully deserves to be favourite pre race and will be a tough one to beat here though the other French bred that nobody is talking about could be a revelation here stepping up to this trip for the first time.
Sired by Astarbad who sires heavy and soft ground winners for fun.
Always considered to be a special horse before injury problems and always been highly thought of.
Wasn’t given a hard race last time on first run back and should improve greatly both for the run and the ground and the stamina test. Superb jumper, jumped Altior to sleep at Newbury last season on his first run back before tiring and coming home in his own time.
Bounced when turned out quickly and then straight to champion chase. It was an awful preperation to that season though he ran well in the champion chase and when 3rd in the melling.Trouble free preperation this season and with the ground in his favour he could come of age in this race.
Mr Moore promises us we have not seen the best of this horse yet.Nobody appears to be taking it seriously or mentioning it.
I think it’s bristols main danger here.
Taken a bit of 3/1 Sizing John as a saver.
Main bet though is Cue Card @ 7/2. At time of the Wetherby fall was going fairly well. But wherever he’d have finished that day, has come on for the run other seasons. If doing the same has every chance. Hope his new jockey takes the old boy to the front; am convinced he jumps consistently better there. Seems silly to say for a horse that’s won the race so many times, Cue Card is not sure to stay the Betfair trip this year (gone up to 3m1f125yrds from 3m). But older horses tend to stay further as they get older. Lot of people have written Cue Card off prematurely.Bristol De Mai is the improving youner horse. Won the 3m Charlie Hall fair and square, but often fails to put two good races together and very best efforts so far have been when fresh (Peter Marsh and Charlie Hall). Although could also have something to do with a flat track. No doubt he likes very soft ground and that may be why he’s been backed. But not sure to stay this trip on very soft ground. Seemed out on his feet over the last over a similar trip in the Gold Cup. Mistake there and lost a lot of ground on run-in. Possibly suited last time out by Coneygree’s exit – Bristol De Mai jumps enthusiastically racing prominently. Form of the Charlie Hall is good, but not as good as several of these and imo represents poor value. Favourite well worth taking on.
Sizing John won a slightly substandard Gold Cup last year but stable voices claim he’ll be fit for this. On form of last season he’s the one to beat and has a gradually progressive profile. Should really be favourite here. Gold Cup was a similar trip and the furthest he’s raced, which suggests he’ll stay. Although this will be on a more stamina sapping surface. Once best known primarily for following Douman home over 2 miles. However, now proven on soft at 3 miles in Irish Gold Cup. But beating Empire Of Dirt 3/4 length with Don Poli another 3/4 length away in third doesn’t seem quite as good form, so it was pretty much as good as anthing he’d done up to that point. So although not certain to stay it is likely. Something not sure you can say about some others here…
Traffic Fluide seems effective at between 2m and 2m6f. Some good efforts on soft ground, but they were at 2m and doesn’t look to be crying out for these conditions.
Shantou Flyer goes really well on soft ground and ran in the Grand National (pulled up 4 out). 58 lengths behind Bristol De Mai last time out on reappearance for his new trainer. Yet to show his form at further than 2 3/4 miles and that form isn’t up to this.
Tea For Two beat a below par Cue Card in the Bowl at Aintree. That was 3m on goodish ground. Hate to say this as I used to talk to one of the owners fairly frequently at the races – but the race seemed to fall apart for him that day. Wasn’t far (3 1/2 lengths) behind Thistlecrack in last year’s King George. Seems wants at least 3 miles these days. Needed race over now inadequate 2m4f on reappearance. Unseated at the second fence in last season’s Gold Cup only try at around 3 1/4m.
Outlander lost his form in the second half of last season after beating Don Poli in the Lexus by further than Sizing John did in the Irish Gold Cup. So on form isn’t out of this if turning up. Forget the run when last seen on the mainland, never travelling with any fluencey in Gold Cup. Had an operation in the summer break and back to form in first time cheek pieces last time. Won 3m (soft) JN Wine, staying on well to beat the up and coming owner companion Road To Respect 1/2 length. Outlander has disappointed each time raced beyond 3m, but may be other reasons for that and races at 3m as if will stay futher. Might back him once confirmed to run… Or earlier…
Value Is EverythingI just don’t rate Bristol De Mai myself. He’s been beaten way too many times as favourite for me and often at short odds.
The Charlie Hall fell apart as a race. Coneygree pulled up, Cue Card fell and Bristol De Mai was left to beat Grand National horses that my upcoming Chaser Ploddy McPlodface could give a race to.
Laying Bristol De Mai looks the call for me, with enough reasons to see him getting beaten here at too short a price.
Interesting looking at Outlander and the Lexus Chase he won. 28 runs since from that race and …….drum roll…..ZERO winners have come from it other than Outlander’s 16/1 upset last time. He had run like a drain on his previous three starts
Cue Card looks a shade more likely than Sizing John with the Gold Cup winner unlikely to be ripe. The Tizzards are winning with the better horses whom you would expect to run well and the old fellow may just find a swansong win despite being a bit below his prime now. Obviously his jumping will come under major scrutiny here but he holds a chance in a race where the favourite is a little underwhelming as a Chaser just yet in my opinion.
I would be tempted to go 2/1 on the favourite and get the tin hat ready for the fall out.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The distance would be the only thing that could bring improvement out of traffic fluide, as he was beaten 50 lengths on soft in feb over 2m5 by cue card who arguably is better at 3m also,
They stepped traffic fluide up to 2m6.5f and menorah dusted him off giving him 10lbs, he really on the face of it should not be winning this and where it to happen id be forgiving everything in the race
Bdm lto beat alot of grand national types and although it was a comeback i dont really rate the form of the race and i still believe cue card would have won i dont see any reason to suggest he could flip the form with sizing john or cue card other than the fact he “likes haydock” and thats a bigger risk than taking 3/1 about a gold cup winner and 6/1 about a multiple grade 1 performer in my view, if the field lines up like this bdm absolutely has to go on the drift, its a false price
Hes young and “relatively” unexposed, has room for improvement, but so does SJ… and if cue card gets round hes going to run to 160, which Bdm would struggle to match on all known form
“The distance would be the only thing that could bring improvement out of traffic fluide, as he was beaten 50 lengths on soft in feb over 2m5 by cue card who arguably is better at 3m also,”
I wouldn’t pay any attention whatsoever to the run where cue Card beat him 50 lengths.
Traffic was having his first run back for 13 months (2nd run in 2 years) due to injury problems at Newbury in February He outjumped Altior at most fences before tiring.
This was a horse who they believed could win the champion chase, it had problems after problems and was rushed to be got back for the race.With the champion chase just a month away Gary Moore wanted to get another run in it. He ran it just 7 days after the comeback from injury and he almost certainly bounced and ran flat- forget all about this form behind cue card.
The entire season was a disaster yet he still managed 3rd in the melling chase.This season is the season to judge the 7yo on, got to appear in october me ran and jumped well in what was basically a warm up run on first run of season. Has had 27 days to recover and get ready for this.
This is the season to judge him on as preperation has been perfect with no injury problems.Gary Moore has always thought he is a special one and bullishly states we haven’t seen the best of him yet.
“I’m not worried about the trip for him, as I think it’s what he needs now, and Haydock seems the obvious place to go with him.
“You have to respect the likes of Sizing John and Bristol De Mai, but Traffic Fluide is a very talented horse who we haven’t seen the best of yet.”
Moore sounds remarkably confident as he discusses the current gold cup champ and the Charlie chase winner.
It may shock a lot of people if Traffic wins this but Moore won’t be one of them.
To my mind this one is pretty simple, if Cue Card makes it round, the only one who can beat him is Sizing John. Although I think he’ll be well prepped I don’t expect him to be 100% and may need the run so my money goes on Cue Card.
Good luck all
Taken a bit of 3/1 Sizing John as a saver.
Main bet though is Cue Card @ 7/2. At time of the Wetherby fall was going fairly well. But wherever he’d have finished that day, has come on for the run other seasons. If doing the same has every chance. Hope his new jockey takes the old boy to the front; am convinced he jumps consistently better there. Seems silly to say for a horse that’s won the race so many times, Cue Card is not sure to stay the Betfair trip this year (gone up to 3m1f125yrds from 3m). But older horses tend to stay further as they get older. Lot of people have written Cue Card off prematurely.Bristol De Mai is the improving youner horse. Won the 3m Charlie Hall fair and square, but often fails to put two good races together and very best efforts so far have been when fresh (Peter Marsh and Charlie Hall). Although could also have something to do with a flat track. No doubt he likes very soft ground and that may be why he’s been backed. But not sure to stay this trip on very soft ground. Seemed out on his feet over the last over a similar trip in the Gold Cup. Mistake there and lost a lot of ground on run-in. Possibly suited last time out by Coneygree’s exit – Bristol De Mai jumps enthusiastically racing prominently. Form of the Charlie Hall is good, but not as good as several of these and imo represents poor value. Favourite well worth taking on.
Sizing John won a slightly substandard Gold Cup last year but stable voices claim he’ll be fit for this. On form of last season he’s the one to beat and has a gradually progressive profile. Should really be favourite here. Gold Cup was a similar trip and the furthest he’s raced, which suggests he’ll stay. Although this will be on a more stamina sapping surface. Once best known primarily for following Douman home over 2 miles. However, now proven on soft at 3 miles in Irish Gold Cup. But beating Empire Of Dirt 3/4 length with Don Poli another 3/4 length away in third doesn’t seem quite as good form, so it was pretty much as good as anthing he’d done up to that point. So although not certain to stay it is likely. Something not sure you can say about some others here…
Traffic Fluide seems effective at between 2m and 2m6f. Some good efforts on soft ground, but they were at 2m and doesn’t look to be crying out for these conditions.
Shantou Flyer goes really well on soft ground and ran in the Grand National (pulled up 4 out). 58 lengths behind Bristol De Mai last time out on reappearance for his new trainer. Yet to show his form at further than 2 3/4 miles and that form isn’t up to this.
Tea For Two beat a below par Cue Card in the Bowl at Aintree. That was 3m on goodish ground. Hate to say this as I used to talk to one of the owners fairly frequently at the races – but the race seemed to fall apart for him that day. Wasn’t far (3 1/2 lengths) behind Thistlecrack in last year’s King George. Seems wants at least 3 miles these days. Needed race over now inadequate 2m4f on reappearance. Unseated at the second fence in last season’s Gold Cup only try at around 3 1/4m.
Outlander lost his form in the second half of last season after beating Don Poli in the Lexus by further than Sizing John did in the Irish Gold Cup. So on form isn’t out of this if turning up. Forget the run when last seen on the mainland, never travelling with any fluencey in Gold Cup. Had an operation in the summer break and back to form in first time cheek pieces last time. Won 3m (soft) JN Wine, staying on well to beat the up and coming owner companion Road To Respect 1/2 length. Outlander has disappointed each time raced beyond 3m, but may be other reasons for that and races at 3m as if will stay futher. Might back him once confirmed to run… Or earlier…
My 100% book for very soft ground:
Cue Card 5/2, Sizing John 5/2, Bristol De Mai 100/30, Outlander 6/1, Tea For Two 15/1, Traffic Fluide 150/1, Shantou Flyer 500/1.Outlander now my bet to win most money @ 10/1.
Value Is EverythingI give outlander a chance here. One slight worry is on the 3 times he has come to england he has been unplaced twice and fell. All 3 were at the festival and it could be that he just isn’t at his best at Cheltenham as opposed to having any issue with travelling.
I think the price is decent on outlander but niggling doubts on him and he did have a spine issue that appears sorted but these problems can return at any time.
Cue card should be in retirement imo and has fell badly in 2 of his last 3 races. Hardly the preparation needed for a race of this magnitude and as he approaches 12yo his form is only going to go one way. I don’t expect him to complete whether it’s a fall or pulled up. Will be happy to be proved wrong but I just can’t have the horse and I hope he is retired after this one.
I love cue card, but i dont get the retirement calls, he was bang there lto… likely to be in the top 3 at worst….. hes sparkling at home, loving the game, why would he be retired, a fall is a fall, his has nothing to do with age really, if it did he WOULD show that at home,should campeador be retired? I hope he dosent fall on saturday just so people dont bang the he should have been retired drum
Being sentimental with him and saying he deserves his retirement, its nice to think that way, but if he is genuinely showing as much as he always has i dont get why you would retire him and i dont think the tizzards are the type to keep at him for the sake of it, plenty ammunition in that stable..
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