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I was chatting with one of the few mates I have that follows racing a few weeks ago and we got talking about this race. I mentioned I was keen of Vyta Du Roc if he turned up.
Now I’m in two minds because I’ve just found out he took my advice and backed the Henderson job at 25/1 and I, like a lemon, forgot to get involved and now the horse is no better than 12s.
I don’t know if I can bring myself to get on at half the price and am scrambling around looking for negatives. The only one I have yet to come up with is that the ground will probably be a bit lively for him?
I reckon he’s still a bit of value at 12’s Charles, so couldn’t possibly put you off him. I said a few times here during the winter, that there must be a plan for this horse, and I thought it would be The Ultima or Scottish National, but he obviously swerved those.
I missed out on the 25’s myself, kicking myself a wee bit, but he looks a real contender to me.
Sorry to say folks but I also am on Vyta Du Roc as I think hendo has saved it for this race rather than run in the Scottish National.
The other one I have backed is Viva Steve who Feargal hasn’t quite got to grips with yet but this could be the time to catch him!!
I will be watching with interest from Mexico as I fly out there tomorrow morning!!
Good Luck
Over the last few years this has been a quite a good race for me with
The Young Master last year and Hadrian’s approach a couple of years before
him. I’ve been a fan of TYM for what seems an age, I thought he was a National
winner in waiting. Perhaps he still is, but he didn’t look the same horse at
Aintree. In truth he hasn’t quite looked the same horse this year, and much
as it pains me, and possibly I’ll regret it, but I’m going to leave him alone.
I wouldn’t worry Bobby, the way my Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals went this year,
it’s probably music to your ears I’ve not given him the black spot by lumping on.So from one failed National horse, to another. SUGAR BARON caught my
eye at the Festival in the Kim Muir, he was hampered about half way through and did
look like he may have blown his chances, but he was finishing as well as anything
without threatening to win. His National venture last time out, in the Scottish version
was worse than TYM, as he parted company with Nico de Boinville at the 1st. Effectively
he’s only run once this year, the Scottish may turn out to be a blessing in disguise.
3m 5f might just be his trip, and as long as he doesn’t take liberties at his fences, I
think he could just about pull this off, off of a nice 10st 8lbs. I’m kicking myself for
not getting involved earlier, but 8/1 still looks decent value with only a baker’s dozen
going to post.I’m also salivating over the 33s you got on Rock The Kasbah Bobby, I think he has to
be in the frame, and even 12/1 is still a pretty solid e/w at worst. He’s not been
out of the frame in the last 6, and although well beaten last time out, it was by the
very decent American who I fancied and bet at the Festival, only for him to be withdrawn
because of the going, owing to his dodgy knees.Jumps season comes to an end here, I hope a few of us can go out with a bang
Yeah, it’s been a kind race to me over the years Graham, and obviously hoping to continue that tomorrow.
I’m quite sweet on Kasbah, and delighted to have snaffled those odds, and fairly hopeful he can land it. I think he’s progressive enough, and I’ve always had this race in mind for him. I’ve had a fair old go on him, and it would be good to, as you say, see the season out with a bang.
Happy with the odds on Theatre Guide and TYM as well, so if a couple of my trio can, at the very least place, then I’ll be happy enough. Totally in agreement with you on TYM, he’s just not looked the same horse this year, and I’m glad I didn’t top up on the 33’s I took for Aintree, in the autumn. That Becher Chase run just put me off.
Good luck with Sugar Baron, I’m not sure how far he travelled after his mishap last week, but with some horses having ran well in both of these races in the past, then that just might be immaterial anyway. It’s certainly not stopped me looking at Benbens.
Been a good old season, and though I’m looking forward to a proper break until Royal Ascot, I’m sorry to see it come to an end to be honest, but if some of us could nab a nice winner, that would be fab.
Good luck
I have said before that Top weights excel at Sandown,its a course that lets you get a breather into a horse.My all time favourite ‘Whitbread’ was the day Kildimo gave Desert Orchid a fright nearly 30yrs ago and I believe Theatre Guide 24’s on the machine will surprise tomorrow.
Paul Nicholls wins but with which one……?
Just a Par has CD
Present Man has a lot of 1’s next to his name
Benbens has Twiston Davies on board
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Am hoping to see young Heskin sign off the season with a big race win on the relatively unexposed What’s Happening
I’m not totally sold on any of the runners so will take a chance (Win only) on Present Man at 12/1 as he is an in form, progressive novice. My concerns are his propensity to make a bad mistake (but is a novice and could be learning) and, as a prominent racer, will he stay?
Not convinced Theatre Guide gets this trip. Just A Par may struggle at the weights as his mark is based on a veterans race that fell apart and this year he has not got a top claimer aboard. The Young Master and The Druid’s Nephew have not shown their form this season and while either may bounce back I’d rather go with a horse in form. Similar comments could apply to Le Reve. I’m not convinced about Rock The Kasbah on Good and I’m underwhelmed by everything he’s done as a chaser, everything since his Jan 2016 Ascot hurdles win in fact.
Vyta Du Roc is another who’s had a disappointing season, could bounce back but has not finished within 9L of the winner since his last victory. What’s Happening‘s form is in class 2 and seems a little short. Benbens: horses can do remarkable things but a 12yo who ran the race of his life in the SGN on second run back from an injury absence is being asked to repeat it just 7 days later! Sugar Baron flopped in his only completion above class 2 (33L behind in that Ascot race of RTK) and jumping is holding him back over fences, not only last week’s unseat but earlier fell here.
<strongI liked Doing Fine before looking at the form, as he looked good at Cheltenham, and he’s still my second choice but at 5/1 I have strong reservations. It’s nice to think Neil Mulholland has improved the horse as his ex-trainer, Rebecca Curtis, often has horses that underperform. However, NM has merely brought the horse back to its best (is he really improving as a 9yo?) which under both trainers is in 8k or 9k value class 3 races. Doing Fine has always been below this form at a higher value/level including in the London National (course & distance) when he couldn’t beat a monkey (Rocky Creek). Mulholland also seems worried re the second quick run. All Henllan Harri‘s form is in classes 3 & 4 and seems well short.
“I’d rather go with a horse in form”
So would I usually, but I think these major chase handicaps are something of an exception.
There are very few top handicaps per season at each trip and as high class chase handicappers rarely win two in a season I think specific targeting is the norm. For example, we were told early on this season that Just A Par was being aimed at the bet365 Gold Cup and the Irish National (Nicholls’ comments in Racing Post on 07/11/16) and The Young Master the Grand National (Mulholland’s comments in the Post on 21/10/16). If we take such comments seriously – and I do as they are very often born out in action – then it follows that runs prior to the target races need to be interpreted as essentially preparation. For that reason I’m less concerned about the absence of apparently good recent form than I would be if I was analysing for example a £20,000 sprint handicap.
Targeting a particular race does not of course mean connections will be successful, and analysts need to make allowance when a target is missed, as with The Young Master. (For example, the National was also Vicente’s main seasonal target according to Nicholls’ comments on 07/11/16, and after he was brought down at the first there was an obvious “consolation” race available.) The Young Master got a bit further than Vicente, but for him the bet365 was always a clear possibility if the National bid failed.
Both The Young Master and Just A Par are running off similar marks to those in which they came 1st and 2nd respectively last year and I would see them both as having decent chances despite their lack of good recent form in appropriate class, though the former’s propensity for making jumping errors is for me an increasing concern.
Yes a good post and a reminder to keep my ears pricked in autumn for trainer comments to store in the memory bank, especially if they are tucked away in a deluge of “what’s hot for the Christmas festivals” info.
I have also selected Vyta Du Roc,well handicapped and kept fresh for today.
If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
Very poor renewal. Back in the 70’s virtually the whole field would be better than this bunch. Given that why is Just A Par so weak in the market? It can’t just be the weight. Cobden telling porkies about his well being this morning?
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