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WARRANTOR at 16/1 my bet here if either of Waldorf Salad and Beg To Differ not turn up
Just a quickie!!
Do we think this years race is likely to be a better class renewal than it his been for a few years?
The reason I mention this is looking at previous years only three winners in the last twenty years have lumped eleven stone or more to win.
And by the looks of it there is not going to be many that get in with less than eleven stone.By the way VYTA DE ROC is huge at 25/1 !!
P.S Milborough has zero chance of getting in.
This also seems to have been run in a mudbath for years on end so probably not favourable to the higher weights. This year could see a National with some “Good” description in the going. Definitely a good chance of an 11 Stone+ winner.
I have bet Unioniste at 25-1, I think he will run here and I just can’t see him being near that price on the day.
I really don’t know if it’s going to be a really heavy going this year and can see it being good to soft, soft in places…
Unioniste is a bit of a rogue but is a strong stayer and conditions may be ideal – it’d be interesting if STD opts to ride him.
Another Hero was my main hope Blades, before Native River came into the picture, while I’ve got a few quid on Waldorf as well, though would have to improve a bit on his seasonal debut.
Good luck with the pair of them if they make it
Trying the contrarian approach following the owners statement about SDR after the Hennessy
“He will be back, but he will be off for a couple of weeks. There is no way Saphir Du Rheu will go for the Welsh National.”
Noticed a few pounds for him lately at 100’s downwards on BF so had £3 @ 55’s just in case they have had a change of plan.
I backed Cogry a while back, before his latest mishap, and apart from the fact I doubt
he will make the cut, I’d be surprised if he managed to stay on his feet. It’s not that he
looks a terrible jumper in general, it’s just that he seems to have developed the habit of
getting one horribly wrong. I’m not holding out much hope, so I’m adding one that I think has
a more realistic chance.ARPEGE D’ALENE looks the type that could take this. He has decent course form,
a winner here over 2m 7f in February on soft and more recently has shown he is in good form,
winning last time but one, albeit a bloodless 3 horse race, but more importantly his recent run
at Cheltenham over 3m 1f, where he ran a good race, got a bit outpaced towards the end but then
ran on strongly to finish 2nd. I think the extra 4 furlongs could be what he’s looking for, and
the 20/1 with SkyBet is worth taking. I’m glad Native River stands his ground, as it puts him on a
very decent 10-7, and it’s few and far between that anything wins this with more than 11st. I see
you put him up earlier Lionroars, let’s hope he brings us a belated Christmas present I checked the trends last night + I’m sure there are a bunch who tick all the boxes, but Another Hero certainly does. His profile looks absolutely perfect. I went in again at 40 + 42 last night.
Who knows? I went into the Venetia runners as well. Waldorf Salad, Rigadin d B (who does have very little chance of getting in) and Emperor’s Choice.
I’ve a very good record in this race. It’s a race I love both for financial reasons and because I love these staying chasers.
I’ve tried to find something this evening before Pricewise goes and takes the price on it. After spending just under and hour looking, my problem is there is too many with potential to have a bet at this stage.
I see now Pricewise must have nominated Racing Pulse and Baie Des Iles, they’re very blue on the odds comparison sites. I can see the case for Racing Pulse having won a novice chase at Chepstow. But the form figures of P0PUB don’t appeal even at this stage. Baie Des Iles ran well in the Irish National last season but this is even more of a test and for a 5yo I don’t think it’s ideal.
I’d agree that Harry Topper must be of interest. Kim Bailey has said today in his blog that he’s being aimed at the race and I’m sure many of us have been witing for that for a couple of years!
Mystree is being touted by Michael Scudamore this week after his win at Haydock. He’ll get in the foot of the weights. He beat Chase The Spud who was pulled up in this last year and doesn’t get an entry this time round. Not massively convincing but he has potential.
Milansbar Is another strong stayer, wants the mud, and even better, is a prominant racer. He was beaten by Firebird Flyer in the Midlands, theres a pull of 3lbs in teh weights there and Milansbar is double the price.
Waldorf Salad is another interesting one. Too many at this point!
Harry Topper looks like being diverted to Weatherby. Very starnge behaviour from the trainer. The Welsh National has appeared to be the aim for over a year and now he says it’ll be hard to win it on his first start back since his last run in Feb 2015. He still has Knockanrawley in there whose been off sinceNov 2015. Disappointing, consistently misleading comments from Bailey.
I’ve settled on Milansbar now. Big price at 33/1. progressive, unexposed and likely to get the conditions he prefers. His run style suits this race and he jumps efficiently for a contest like the Welsh Grand National.
The other horse I’m keen on and have also backed is Shotgun Paddy. He’s a cliff horse for many but I’ve never backed him.He ran very well off top weight last season in this and has a very nice pull with Mountainous and Firebird Flyer. He alse lugs 7lbs less around the course this time round.
I can certainly see the attraction of Native River as he’s a very solid horse and the price isn’t bad either. However is he in the Carvills hill class, the last horse to carry top weight in this race?
I quite like catching on and Berea boru at decent prices.
I’ve backed Onenightinvienna at 25s and have also backed Arpege D’Alene, whom i think has been trained for the race and should appreciate the extra half mile ( related to some National winners )
Milansbar is tempting but i think the ground might be Good to Soft and he’s a mud lover. This is also a better race than last season.
According to turftrax the going at Chepstow is currently soft, with good to soft in places.Looking at the general forecast I could see it being soft, heavy in places by race day. On that basis I would have thought that Native River might be a doubtful runner and I can’t see Bet365’s 33-1 on Milansbar lasting much longer.
The whole race still revolves around Native River for me, but with the mixed weather reports, I might just have to have another(s)
Not surprised that Another Hero doesn’t go, and though he was initially a strong fancy, I at least got a decent return from him at Ascot on Saturday, so just happy to collect from him in one of the races. He remains one to keep an eye on for future targets.
As for Chepstow, I’ll probably side with one or 2 of these in the next 24 hours
Viva Steve 16’s
Unioniste 20’s
Alfie Spinner 40’s
Midnight Prayer 33’sAccording to turftrax the going at Chepstow is currently soft, with good to soft in places.Looking at the general forecast I could see it being soft, heavy in places by race day. On that basis I would have thought that Native River might be a doubtful runner and I can’t see Bet365’s 33-1 on Milansbar lasting much longer.
There’s not that much rain forecast.
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