Troytown 2016

5 days Decs are tomorrow, but here’s the entries as we stand…..

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=663453&r_date=2016-11-27&big_race=Y&raceTabs=#raceTabs=lc_

After getting this very right 2 years ago, I got it very wrong last year, and as it’s a race I really like, I usually have a decent bet in it. This year is no exception, and I’ve had what will no doubt, be one of my bigger bets of the season, on Captain Von Trappe at 25’s. I think they’ve been holding back with him for a while, and his run behind Monksland at Galway last month was very encouraging. Slightly concerned that he had to be niggled at the start last time in The Cork National, where he ultimately fell, but he’s better than that, an on a very handy mark. Also concerning that his trainer Gordon Elliot has his usual strong entry, not to mention plenty of fellow Giggs horses to choose from, but I do like the horse, and I’ve got to stick with him, and I think 25’s is very generous.

I’ve also went with Mad Brian at 50’s. He let me down badly in The Kerry National, he ran no race at all, and I can only assume something was amiss. He ran very well for a long way in The Midlands National, before he appeared to run out of steam, and I’m willing to give him another chance off the back of that run. He’s had 2 runs over hurdles to (presumably) get him back on track, and he’ll come here a few pounds lower than when runner up 3 years ago. At 50’s, I think he’s very much worth one last chance.

As mentioned, both Elliot, who’s on a hat-trick in the race, and Gigginstown look to have a big say in this. The Elliot trained Noble Endeavour, heads the market, and not difficult to see why. Looked very progressive over fences in his Novice season, and looked nailed on for a place in the 4 miler at The Festival, before coming down 2 out. Slightly disappointing at Punchestown in April, but I liked his run behind Snow Falcon over hurdles last time, and he looks primed for a big prize this year.

Of the Giggs contingent from the yard, Roi Des Francs, who holds an entry in The King George, misses The Hennessy, and could come here nicely treated, while Empire of Dirt, still holds an entry for Newbury. Killer Crow has plenty of questions to answer now, but he looks the type to bounce up when least expected, and could see him appealing to some. Akorakor has just been a bit disappointing lately. Of the Giggs runners from other outfits, well we have the last 2 winners of The Irish National in the shape of Rogue Angel & Thunder and Roses, along with Folsom Blue, and Measureofmydreams. I think Aintree will be the plan for Rogue Angel this year, though he is hovering around the cut off point with his current mark, so from that angle, he’s difficult to write off, while despite having a few questions to answer now, Thunder and Roses could appeal if re-united with Katie Walsh. I said this about Folsom Blue the last time, and it seems to fit this time around as well….”Folsom Blue was probably the biggest disappointment of the race (The Kerry National), being backed into 9-2 favourite, but he never really figured, and more worryingly, there didn’t seem to be any real excuse either. I described him as a bit “in and out” last time, and for that very reason he’s impossible to rule out here. For all his “no shows” he can also count on making the frame in The Paddy Power, The Irish National, and the big handicap at The Punchestown Festival, not to mention being in the process of running a big race, when being brought down in The Scottish National. No chance on his last run, but a leading contender based on last seasons form“. Measureofmydreams also took in The Scottish National, where he departed early doors, and followed this up with a lacklustre display in The Bet365 Gold Cup. It might just be though, that he had left his season behind by then, and was only in the Sandown race to boost WPM’s chance of the trainers title, as he had looked very good beforehand, including placing in The 4 Miler, and getting the better of Noble Endeavour. Don’t know if this is a serious entry or not, but he looks to have a live chance.

Even ignoring the Gigginstown runners, as well as Noble Endeavour, Gordon Elliot is still mob handed with runners in other ownership. Woodford Island is going the right way this year, while it’ll be interesting to see if he can get some improvement out of Mountain King, since that horse moved from the Hobbs yard, having been sold by The Whatleys. In the same ownership, Realt Mor & Shadow Catcher both have a squeak, though both sometimes struggle with consistency. Realt Mor was travelling very well when he came down in The Kerry National, though I thought his last run at Cheltenham was a strange target. Although he’ll be 12, I just wonder whether they’re planning on sending him back for The Festival, with a target in mind. I’d still favour him over Shadow Catcher in this though, as he’s failed to impress since his excellent 6th in The Galway Plate. Bless The Wings doesn’t need any introduction, after his close second at Fairyhouse, and he looks weighted to be competitive once again here, should this be the plan. Ucello Conti strikes me as another who’s season will be geared towards Aintree, though he’s decent animal, and should this be the plan, then he will not be far away, particularly with a spin over hurdles under his belt. His final 2 runners are both in the JP colours, with my old friend Cause of Causes, who surely doesn’t have this as the season “plan”, and last years winner, Riverside City, who’ll surely struggle to get in.

JP, as could be expected, has a few in here himself. Should Hash Brown make it, I could see him figure, as he looked in good health last time, whereas Tom Horn, as much as I think he’ll pop up one day, isn’t in the best of form, and should struggle to get in anyway, along with Oscar Knight who is also at the bottom of the list, along with Whatareudoingtome. It would be hard to make case for Oscar Knight, but Whatareudoingtome is a horse to bear in mind in future for races like this, and something of a shame that he’s unlikely to make the gig here. Killer Miller is guaranteed a run though, and though off for a year, he looked progressive last term, and no surprise to see some cash for him the last few days. It’s hard to be too enthusiastic about Down Under.Shutthefrontdoor is surely one for Aintree, he certainly didn’t show much to recommend him last time, and I’d be surprised if he made the trip across The Irish Sea.

There is a fair few entered though, who could make that trip, not least from Rebecca Curtis, who has 5 entered in the shape of Bob Ford, Audacious Plan, Potters Cross, Red Devil Lads, and Racing Pulse. Highly unlikely that they’ll all figure, and the one that appeals most of the quintet is Potters Cross. If Katkeau made the trip for David Pipe, I’d give him a second look. He did me a favour at Uttoxeter in the spring, and I’m willing to forgive him his last run. I think he’ll be a National horse this year, and despite that blip last time, he looked to have a good attitude beforehand.

Willie Mullins has only taken this prize once, with Beroni in 2009, and to be honest I don’t think it’s a race he particularly targets. Having said that, he does have 7 entered this time around. New Kid In Town will struggle to get in, while The Crafty Butcher hasn’t shown enough to be seriously considered at this point of his career. I think Tennis Cap is a really solid, dependable horse, but there’s just a question mark over the trip, though not out of it by any means, if he does indeed stay. One horse who it’s very hard to pick holes in is The Paparazzi Kid. Like his stablemate Tennis Cap, he’s a model of consistency, coming here off the back of making the frame in The Galway Plate, The Kerry National, and The Munster National. That’s hard to knock, and from an each way viewpoint, he’s huge at 25’s. Sambremont remains a horse of some potential, and will have learnt a lot from his runs in The Kim Muir and at Punchestown, though I’d be inclined to see him get more experience before parting with my cash. The pick of the stables entries though, looks like being Pleasant Company. I sang his praises on more than one occasion last year, and he eventually repaid the faith in a very competitive handicap at The Punchestown Festival, and he still looks nicely treated. He won very well that day, and I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t figure in one of the major handicaps this season. If he turns up, then he’s shortlist material. The stables final entry in Rolly Baby. For an 11yo, he doesn’t have many miles on the clock, though this will be a million miles from the 4 runner affair he landed at Perth in the spring, though he has shown in the past that the trip will pose no problems. He’s very hard to weigh up, so who knows

In front of Rolly Baby last term was the very interesting Domesday Book. The Brookehouse/De Bromhead runners are always worth a second look for these type of prizes, and I fully expect a bit of progression from this horse. He’s caught my eye on more than one occasion, and he’s big at 25’s, considering he’s the only entry from the yard.

Sizing Coal is another going the right way, with plenty of runs in the locker which give him a live chance here, and he still remains on a handy mark. There’s just the distraction of his Becher Chase entry, and I think there’s a chance they might just want to see how he takes to Aintree. If he does trap here, though, he’s a serious player. The owners also have an interesting entry in Venitien De Mai, and a couple of runs last year, would give him a squeak in this.

It’s a shame that Sonny B might not make it, as I think he’s a winner waiting to happen. had absolutely no luck in running at the weekend, and would have won for sure, but for being nearly brought down, and then getting hampered. He deserves a change of luck, and conditions would suit, so a shame we’ll probably not get the chance to see this 50-1 shot.

It Came To Pass at 20’s interests me greatly, and should he fail to scrape in here, then keep an eye on him this year, as I think he’s a horse with a future, while the much more fancied, and second favourite, Bonny Kate, has a couple of below par runs to atone for, and she just looks a bit short to me at this stage. One who’s a massive price at 50’s, is Mr Diablo. A few runs last season which would bring him into this, and he should get in. Thyestes winner My Murphy is no stranger to this type of race, though it just might be he could do with coming down few pounds.

That’ll do for now, and with me no doubt having another go in this (particularly with Mad Brian touch and go to get in), then I’ll look at the rest after tomorrows declaration stage.

The Giggs pair, Measureofmydreams & Roi Des Francs make plenty of appeal, as do the likes of Sizing Coal, Domesday Book, Killer Miller, and the outsider Mr Diablo, not to mention the fav, but as the race will no doubt cut up, it’s very much one to “re-visit” once the final decs are known

Captain Von Trappe for me then, and I’ve had a good go. I won’t lie, if he doesn’t make it I’ll be gutted. I’ve obviously got Mad Brian (potentially) as backup, but with me planning to have another, I’m swaying towards Pleasant Company, who should not be 20’s.

GL