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I’ll send them to you Mark in a tweet if I can, I’m not very good at Twitter.
I think you and Raymo will be as worried as me about Cause of Causes. I normally look to horse number 72 to 77 as the best guide for getting in, but obviously no guarantee, and was a wee bit lower last year. I think he’ll just sneak in, but going to be a nervy ride.
River Choice on 10-3 was horse 62 on the list last year, then Ely Brown, Royale Knight & Soll got in as those off 10-2. I hope that makes sense.
Not read all of this thread but any views on HOLLYWELL 33/1 ran a cracker in gold cup last year while not in form since he got 11.0 nice racing weight if ground is fast has won at Aintree as well.
Days of a fast ground Nationals are long consigned to the archives – if they get good weather the quickest they will let it be is good to soft unless the weather catches them out on the day of the racing when it could dry out to good (good to soft in places).
Re: Hollywell – noted for coming into form in the spring, even though he has jumped round Cheltenham I would be a little concerned with his jumping and more especially the form of the yard – 21 runners in the last 14 days with only two winners and 6 placed.
I’m afraid i can’t see anything under 10-2 getting in. Soll i thing was horse 69 last year?
Having taken out those with little/no chance of getting in (gutted about Portrait King) my list is looking like…
Benbens – not likely to get in and not overly convinced of his chances
Double Ross – if he goes he could be rather interesting, we know he’ll jump round and might be a place prospect
Holywell – cursing myself for not backing him earlier, but i rarely bet before the weights come out. Could start favourite
Houblon Des Obeaux – ridiculous weight hike for winning a bad race. Typical paranoid Phil Smith job. Can see him being withdrawn
Long Run – the most exciting prospect off 10-8. Has been given a real chance and is my main selection
O’faolains Boy – needs to show more next time out. If the stable starts turning back around then he’ll be a main hope
Roi Du Mee – another who’s been given a real chance, given his runs this time last year.
Saint Are – could slip under the radar and 10-5 is very fair
Silviniaco Conti – 11-8 is as fair as you can ask for a dual king george winner. I just want one decent run before committing any serious money. I think he’s made for it.
Sir Des Champs – gone off him slightly recently, but he’s well weighted for a former gold cup runner up.
Soll – has shown his wellbeing and is a big fancy. I just wonder if there are better handicapped horses in the fieldTalk in the press about Many Clouds carrying one pound more than last year is misleading. What weight a horse carries matters not one jot, what matters is its mark compared to all other horses in the race.
A mark that’s been put up 5 lbs from 160 last year to 165 this…Still makes him well handicapped for a National winner imo.
Value Is EverythingMany Clouds 25/1
Kruzhlinin 40/1
These are my two main ante-posts this year.
I have smaller bets on Ucello Conti 40/1 and The Last Samuri 33/1.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nice to see you back Steve..only just noticed you were posting again.
Good luck with Many Clouds would love to see him win it again.
I have also had 40/1 about Kerry Lee’s Mountaineous
in the event that the heavens open..Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Should be with you now Mark……………hopefully
I think he might squeak in. There’s always a penalty
That means THIRTY TWO have to come out for CAUSE OF CAUSES to get in !!
I live in hope but shall not be holding my breath for fear of turning blue!!
I notice PINEAU DE RE might not get in as well.
Any views on MORNING ASSEMBLY ???
2016 Crabbies Grand National Marks, Entries, Age, Weights And Trainers
165 Many Clouds 9: 11-10 Oliver Sherwood
164 Don Poli 7: 11-09 Willie Mullins (Ireland)
163 Silviniaco Conti 10: 11-08 Paul Nicholls
162 Carlingford Lough 10: 11-07 John Kiely (Ireland)
161 Valseur Lido 7: 11-06 Willie Mullins (Ireland)
160 Houblon Des Obeaux 9: 11-05 Venetia Williams
159 First Lieutenant 11: 11-04 Mouse Morris (Ireland)
158 Foxrock 8: 11-03 Ted Walsh (Ireland)
158 Wonderful Charm 8: 11-03 Paul Nicholls
157 Ballynagour 10: 11-02 David Pipe
157 Third Intention 9:11-02 Colin Tizzard
156 Gilgamboa 8: 11-01 Enda Bolger (Ireland)
156 Lord Windermere 10: 11-01 Jim Culloty (Ireland)
156 O’Faolains Boy 9: 11-01 Rebecca Curtis
156 On His Own 12: 11-01 Willie Mullins (Ireland)
156 Sam Winner 9: 11-01 Paul Nicholls
155 The Druids Nephew 9 11-00 Neil Mulholland
155 Triolo D’Alene 9:11-00 Nicky Henderson
155 Wounded Warrior 7: 11-00 Noel Meade (Ireland)
154 Rocky Creek 10: 10-13 Paul Nicholls
154 Roi Du Mee 11: 10-13 Gordon Elliott (Ireland)
154 Sir Des Champs 10: 10-13 Willie Mullins (Ireland)
153 Holywell 9: 10-12 Jonjo O’Neil
152 Shutthefrontdoor 9: 10-11 Jonjo O’Neil
152 Soll 11: 10-11 David Pipe
151 Aachen 12: 10-10 Venetia Williams
151 Boston Bob 11: 10-10 Willie Mullins (Ireland)
151 Buywise 9: 10-10 Evan Williams
151 Turban 9: 10-10 Willie Mullins (Ireland)
150 Double Ross 10: 10-09 Nigel Twiston-Davies
150 Morning Assembly 9: 10-09 Pat Fahy (Ireland)
149 Gallant Oscar 10: 10-08 Tony Martin (Ireland)
149 Goonyella 9: 10-08 Jim Dreaper (Ireland)
149 Le Reve 8: 10-08 Lucy Wadham
149 Long Run 11: 10-08 Robert Waley-Cohen
149 Onenightinvienna 7: 10-08 Philip Hobbs
149 The Last Samuri 8: 10-08 Kim Bailey
149 Ucello Conti 8: 10-08 Gordon Elliott (Ireland)
149 Unioniste 8: 10-08 Paul Nicholls
148 Bear’s Affair 10: 10-07 Nicky Henderson
148 Kruzhlinin 9: 10-07 Philip Hobbs
148 Rule The World 9: 10-07 Mouse Morris (Ireland)
147 Ballycasey 9: 10-6 Willie Mullins (Ireland)
147 Black Thunder 9: 10-06 Paul Nicholls
147 Hadrian’s Approach 9:10-06 Nicky Henderson
147 Just A Par 9: 10-06 Paul Nicholls
147 Katenko 10:10-06 Venetia Williams
147 Living Next Door 10: 10-06 Tony Martin (Ireland)
147 Thunder And Roses 8: 10-06 Sandra Hughes (Ireland)
147 Vics Canvas 13: 10-06 Dermot McLoughlin (Ireland)
146 Mendip Express 10: 10-05 Philip Hobbs
146 Pendra 8: 10-05 Charlie Longsdon
146 Saint Are 10: 10-05 Tom George
146 Spring Heeled 9: 10-05 Jim Culloty (Ireland)
146 Vieux Lion Rouge 7: 10-05 David Pipe
145 Home Farm 9: 10-04 Henry De Bromhead (Ireland
145 Mon Parrain 10: 10-04 Paul Nicholls
145 The Romford Pele 9: 10-04 Rebecca Curtis
144 Bishops Road 8:10-03 Kerry Lee
144 Knock House 7: 10-03 Mick Channon
144 Open Hearted 9: 10-03 Dan Skelton
144 Shotgun Paddy 9: 10-03 Emma Lavelle
143 Alvarado 11: 10-02 Fergal O’Brien
143 Highland Lodge 10: 10-02 James Moffatt
143 Maggio 11: 10-02 Patrick Griffin (Ireland)
143 Perfect Candidate 9:10-02 Fergal O’Brien
143 Pineau De Ree 13: 10-02 Dr Richard Newland
143 Present View 8: 10-02 Jamie Snowden
142 Bally Beaufort 8: 10-01 Nigel Twiston Davies
142 Benbens 11: 10-01 Nigel Twiston Davies
142 Cause Of Causes 8:10-01 Gordon Elliott (Ireland)
142 Double Seven 10: 10-01 Martin Brassil (Ireland)
142 Midnight Prayer 11:10-01 Alan King
142 Mountainous 11: 10-01 Kerry Lee
142 Royale Knight 10: 10-01 Dr Richard Newland
141 Bless The Wings 11: 10-00 Gordon Elliott (Ireland)
141 Broadway Buffalo 8: 10-00 David Pipe
141 Corrin Wood 9:10-00 Donald McCain
141 Dare To Endeavour 9: 10-00 Eric McNamara (Ireland)
141 Emperor’s Choice 9: 10-00 Venetia Williams
141 Splash Of Ginge 9: 10-00 Nigel Twiston-Davies
141 Ziga Boy 7:10-00 Alan King
140 Gas Line Boy 10: 9-13 Jim Best
140 Gray Hession 9: 9-13 Jonjo O’Neil
140 Milborough 10: 9-13 Ian Duncan
139 Bob Ford 9: 9-12 Rebecca Curtis
139 Night In Milan 10: 9-12 Keith Reveley
139 Our Father 10: 9-12 Gordon Elliott (Ireland)
139 Rogue Angel 8: 9-12 Mouse Morris (Ireland)
139 Russe Blanc 9: 9-12 Kerry Lee
139 Seabass 13: 9-12 Ted Walsh (Ireland)
138 Firebird Flyer 9: 9-11 Evan Williams
138 Mr Moonshine 12: 9-11 Sue Smith
138 Operating 9: 9-11 Gordon Elliott (Ireland)
138 Paint The Clouds 11: 9-11 Warren Greatrex
137 Big Water 8: 9-10 Alan Swinbank
136 Benvolio 9: 9-09 Paul Nicholls
136 Cogry 7: 9-09 Nigel Twiston-Davies
136 No Secrets 12: 9-09 Tony Martin (Ireland)
136 Summery Justice 12: 9-09 Venetia Williams
135 Amigo 9: 9-08 David Pipe
135 Competitive Edge 9: 9-08 Conor O’Dwyer
135 Golden Chieftain 11: 9-08 Colin Tizzard
134 Doing Fine 8: 9-07 Rebecca Curtis
134 Dromnea 9: 9-07 Mouse Morris (Ireland)
134 Golden Wonder 10: 9-07 Sandra Hughes (Ireland)
134 Indian Castle 8: 9-07 Ian Williams
134 Rivage D’Or 11: 9-07 Tony Martin (Ireland)
134 Standing Ovation 9: 9-07 David Pipe
133 Ikorodu Road 13: 9-06 Graeme McPherson
133 Ned Stark 8: 9-06 Alan King
133 Rathlin 11: 9-06 Micky Hammond
133 Rigadin De Beauchene 11: 9-06 Venetia Williams
133 Wyck Hill 12: 9-06 David Bridgewater
131 Portrait King 11: 9-04 Patrick Griffin (Ireland)
131 Woodford County 9: 9-04 Philip Hobbs
130 Any Currency 13: 9-03 Martin Keighley
130 Dark Lover 11: 9-03 Jamie Snowden
130 Seebright 9: 9-03 Victor Dartnall
129 Godsmejudge 10: 9-02 Alan King
129 Saroque 9: 9-02 Venetia Williams
129 Tour Des Champs 9: 9-02 Nigel Twiston Davies
128 Aerlite Supreme 9: 9-01 Evan Williams
128 Financial Climate 9: 9-01 Oliver Sherwood
128 Harry The Viking 11: 9-01 Sandy ThomsonValue Is EverythingWhile you guys have all been looking at the weights, I’ve been trying to work out exactly how far Ballycasey wins by. 3L.
While the idea of Long Run running off a mark of 149 makes me rather giddy; the idea of Soll running off 152 does not exactly fill me with Christmas cheer.
This surely has to be the classiest entry for many years?
I quite like the look of the Fergal O’Brien pair but on 10-2 their participation must be doubtful. What’s the ruling with regard to who get’s in if horses have the same allotted weight?
Aaron, whoever is highest rated of those on the same weight will get in first. After that it goes to a draw.
That would be fab Mark, but unfortunately no penalty in The National……dammit!!!
Thanks for the tweet. Soll and Royal Knight were at a similar entry level ( 70th ) to Cause Of Causes and they squeaked in last season.
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