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It doesn’t appear Venetia is 100% committed to sending Houblon Des Obeaux to Aintree and based on his efforts before today i couldn’t blame her. Even after todays emphatic performance there are still plenty of questions to ask…
Does he need it heavy?
Is he better in smaller fields?
Does he jump well enough these days?
Is he tired of lumping big weights in handicaps?
Was his win a return to his best or was he against horses on the downgrade?
Will he be weighted to the hilt for winning in such fashion today?I’ll still be backing him
Had mixed emotions when he won Peter, had 2 decent bets on him this season, and as you know he was very poor, but was still kicking myself, as when they lined up, I thought that this could just be the day.
I’ve not really been betting in many races on Saturdays this year, and having a strict “no bet” day today, so although I missed him, consoling myself that I’m not sure I’d have bet him at 3’s anyway. I also thought Rocky Creek would have fared better, so that’s another reason I might have missed him.
I thought he was getting to a nice mark for Aintree, but todays romp, albeit in what could be the worst Denman Chase we’ll ever see, won’t do his chances any good, and as you say, he might just need that soft ground to show his best.
He might make a trifecta on the day if he makes it, but if going to bet him, I’d definitely wait until the day, as can’t see him getting much shorter in the build up if he does indeed go there………..unless the heavens open of course haha.
It doesn’t appear Venetia is 100% committed to sending Houblon Des Obeaux to Aintree and based on his efforts before today i couldn’t blame her. Even after todays emphatic performance there are still plenty of questions to ask…
Does he need it heavy? No.
Is he better in smaller fields? Probably, or if in a bigger field needs a clear view of his fences. I’ve noticed him quite often going wide to get a clear view.
Does he jump well enough these days? I was looking to back him for the race in previous years but jumping has deteriorated recently.
Is he tired of lumping big weights in handicaps? He’s run well against the best at level weights, so doesn’t make any difference imo.
Was his win a return to his best or was he against horses on the downgrade? Both.
Will he be weighted to the hilt for winning in such fashion today? If put back to his highest ever mark – probably yes. The handicapper could even take the view it was a best ever performance. Where as I think he was the only one in an uncompetitive race to show his form.Value Is EverythingSods law I backed HDO in his last two runs and left him alone today as I thought he was getting fed up with the game as his jumping had been quite poor and his price was way too short – he jumped brilliantly today but this was a god awful renewal and I would not be convinced that a. the National would be his cup of tea or b. he would be capable of jumping the National fences. Would like to see him in something like the Irish National or the Bet365 Gold Cup.
Don’t think he will run but Don Poli would be an ideal candidate for the race but not convince Conti is the right horse for the race but I did like The Last Samuri’s performance at Kempton and whilst he is only a novice Onenightinvienna (in the West Tip colours no less) has impressed me with his jumping at both Cheltenham and Kempton. The Lee horses Mountainous and Bishops Road at big prices would also be interesting especially with a little give in the ground.
Richard Pitman was tipping him on facebook [Onenightinvienna that is]. Isn’t he a bit young, though?
I asked for that, didn’t I! Anyway, as I’m away again for while I’ve had a 2pence ew bet on him just to be on the safe side. And Lord Windermere. I think I’ve already backed Kruzlinen.
NAH….he’s 73 Moe
Lets hope he has learnt how to ride a better finish than in 1973!
If Houblon goes to aintree I’ll have no choice but to back him as I have done in almost every race since he was 4 ,however his jumping style troubles me as I think he can have a tendency to lunge at his fences if crowded and not sure he will see out the four miles ,I think his forte is a strongly run 3/3,2 .
I have followed HDO off a cliff so just had to back him Saturday. So pleased he got back in the winner’s enclosure but not sure he’s back to his best. Yes he won a good distance but the form/runs of the other horses were dire. Have to agree with most other comments on here. I hope he doesn’t go GN as I would have to have a small EW but I feel the big field would not see him at his best. The handicapper may also hammer him.
Full list of weights here
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbVSbOrUEAUxqSm.jpg:large
Yeah, I’d say he’ll struggle Joe, I reckon the cut off will be around the 10-00 horses, namely
Bless The Wings
Broadway Buffalo
Corrin Wood
Dare To Endeavour
Emperors Choice
Splash Of Ginge
Ziga Boy
Gas Line Boythough nervy time for 10-01 backers as well, a good few of mine definitely not going, now just to hope they stay in, so I get my cash back.
Holywell looks all the rage, and as much as it hurts me missing the price, it won’t hurt as much as Thehorsesbloodymouth nabbing the 200’s
Indeed, Bobby. Am happy enough for now with Buywise and Many Clouds, but doubtless I will strap on my betting boots again very soon for this one
Don’t like that the handicapper tends to bend over backwards to accomodate the top rated horses by compressing the weights so much that the bottom weighted horses are in effect giving weight to the top horses based on their official ratings.
Many Clouds is weighted only 1lb higher at 11st 10lbs than last year even though he is officially rated 166 (6lbs higher than last year), whilst HDO gets crucified by officially being put up 14lbs (to 160) for his Newbury win (does he really feel that the mickey mouse field all ran their races?). This leaves MC to only have to concede him 5lbs but bear in mind that when MC beat an on form HDO in the Hennessy he was actually in receipt of 6lbs from him.
But based on this seasons form are we really led to believe that MC is officially only rated a 6lbs better horse than HDO?????
Not read all of this thread but any views on HOLLYWELL 33/1 ran a cracker in gold cup last year while not in form since he got 11.0 nice racing weight if ground is fast has won at Aintree as well.
Anyone know where i can seen the initial weights from last year ? I seem to remember horses in the 70s getting in.
I didn’t expect to see Cause Of Causes that far down this yearEdit – Royal Knight appears to have been about 70th at this time last year. Going to be touch and go for COC backers.
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