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Am getting nervous.
In over 30 years of “investing” I’ve never had more money on one race.Best of luck Ginger, so many good horses this year and now the uncertainty
with the heavy rain this afternoon. I’ve no idea how mine will cope with it,
I can see those finishing heading down towards single figures.Thanks BigG,
It does become more of a lottery in one way in very soft ground, but with so many “top class” horses in the race, so few are real stayers this year. I believe The Last Samuri is one of those, just is he as good on heavy (has won on it)? Many Clouds, weight may tell – remember Suny Bay against Earth Summit? But he is one that is a stayer. Goonyella is my third best result and every drop of rain the better – now he could even start favourite if it is heavy by post time! Holywell‘s Gold Cup 4th was on soft, so don’t discount him on very soft. Watch out for Vics Canvas at a massive price staying on!Good luck all.
Oh what could have been.
Backed Vics Canvas @ an average price of 162.38/1 – win only.
Backed The Last Samuri at everything between 16/1 and 12/1 (“win only”) and he would’ve been my best result in the race.
Beaten by a dodgepot maiden chaser who came alive over the unique course. Mouse Morris has been out of form for the majority of the last year, back with a bang in the last few weeks – none of the 40 trainer’s horses were in better form.
If it wasn’t for Kasparov who pointed to the amazing Place market I’d be getting the revolver out. Showed a reasonable profit thanks to him, with The Last Samuri. I didn’t get the monkey off my back, but I got a monkey back.
Owe you one Kasparov.Value Is EverythingWell done to anyone who found the winner (first time a ‘maiden’ has won this?) – commiserations to the supporters of runner-up (Bass surely got a long whip holiday?) and Vic’s Canvas who ran a remarkable race having been on his belly.
Even though I backed The Last Samuri I couldn’t help feeling happy for Mouse Morris and his family.
Congratulations Rule The World and connections and spare a thought for Brian Cooper who jumped off the winner in favour of First Lieutenant.
Well done Ginger great call on Vics Canvas (what a remarkable recovery his jockey made), Goonyella etc., and to all who backed them.
16 finishers,I think, with Many Clouds coming in at a canter to be 16th I don’t think Leighton Aspell wanted to blot his record with a PU when he has never fallen in any of his races, he definitely looked after the horse after that bad mistake when he went down and recovered, before that he was going really well.
Also pleased to see Silviniaco Conti looked after and pulled up when he had no chance.One of the best Grand Nationals for a long time, even though my horse was second and Many Clouds didn’t get his back to back wins, they will be back next year, unlike the winner who I believe will be enjoying a happy retirement…good wishes to him.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Never going to be easy for punters given those conditions.
I can’t get too excited about a horse breaking his duck in a race like this however many placed efforts he has produced. How many times are you willing to say this will be the day?
It was a surprise to see Many Clouds struggling with his jumping and he fell away disappointingly. Weight/ground or just below his best?
Gilgamboa is obviously a very tricky customer. He looked to be travelling well only to not pick up but then he appeared to stay on again. Not one to trust but he did save me a few quid.
The Onenightinvienna experiment was a complete failure. He was ridden out the back as if nothing much was expected. After Ascot and now this you wouldn’t be rushing to back him for any race. The performance pretty much summed up a dire business end of the season for Hobbs.
27. /211U12-311 The Last Samuri 8: 10-08 Kim Bailey 149 David Bass 10/10
Trainer Kim Bailey won the Grand National with Mr Frisk back in 1990 and has a good chance of victory again. The Last Samuri appears to have all the attributes wanted for this race. Went down by just a neck only start on good ground in April last year, but that still (up to then) a career best performance. Does not have the round action usually associated with a soft ground performer either and trainer believes he’s unsuited by heavy. Probably equally effective between soft or good ground. Won William Hill Handicap (3m good-soft) at Kempton in December off a 140 mark, staying on after looking beaten 4 out to win going away by 1¼ lengths, giving the 2nd Viva Steve 13 lbs; with 14 lengths back to the 3rd. Had a break before winning Grimthorpe Chase off this 149 mark last time out, by 10 lengths from The Druids Nephew and meets runner-up (the 2015’s Grand National “unlucky horse”) under identical terms here. Grimthorpe is the furthest The Last Samuri has raced (3m2f soft) and runs as if the Aintree test is bound to bring more improvement. Isn’t the biggest horse but has a spring-heeled accurate leap of normal fences, rarely touching a twig. Often pushed along some way out over the trips he’s been racing at, but has always found when asked, even more so when stamina kicks in. With 8 wins from 14 starts, a strike rate of over 57% is rarely seen for a handicapper, as genuine, consistent and progressive as they come he’s a courageous street fighter. If the handicapper could frame the weights again The Last Samuri would have another 12 lbs to carry.29. 6/225222-6S32254 Rule The World 9: 10-07 Mouse Morris (Ireland) 148 David Mullins 5/10
Second season novice,“Maiden chaser” doesn’t do Rule The World justice. However, although doesn’t do anything noticeably wrong in a finish – when a horse is 2nd 7 times in 13 starts over fences got to wonder about temperament. Sometimes wears cheek pieces and once hooded. Last runner-up spot was in December, Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase (3m heavy). Disputed last of 4 runners, jumped and travelled well, improved position 2 out, outpaced by owner-mate No More Heroes before last fence and beaten 9 lengths. Trainer Mouse Morris won the Irish Grand National with Rogue Angel a couple of weeks ago and Rule The World was 4¼ lengths 2nd there last year (3m5f soft) off an Irish mark of 141, giving winner (another owner-mate) Thunder And Roses 5 lbs. Tracked pace, jumped left (in to a rival) 2nd, turned for home in 2nd, mistake and pecked 3 out, stayed on. Fair 14¾ lengths 5th in Thyestes (3m1f heavy) off this 148 mark penultimate start; jumping well bar a bit slow 6th, under pressure before 3 out, plugged on. Below form last time out in Grade 3 Novice (2m4f heavy). Length down and hampered 3 out – losing at least 3 lengths, pushed along to get back in to it before next, outpaced run-in. Needs further than 2½m these days and stays 3m5f on soft so shouldn’t have any problem with 4¼m – at least on a sound surface. Has a bit of a rounded action but had hurdles form on good; 13¾ lengths 6th to More Of That in 2013 World Hurdle (3m good). Also 4 lengths 2nd to The New One in 2012 Neptune Hurdle (2m5f good-soft). Can’t be a positive owner Gigginstown’s first jockey Brian Cooper has made a very late switch off Rule The World on to First Lieutenant.32. /54213U2-85P6 Vics Canvas 13: 10-06 Dermot McLoughlin (Ireland) 147 Robert Dunne 6/10
Runner-up in 3m5f (good) Bet365 Gold Cup off a 142 mark, now 2 lb better off for 1¼ lengths with winner Just A Par and 3 lbs worse off for 2¾ lengths with 3rd Le Reve. Suited by coming from the back off an overly strong pace. Raced on outer, slight error 1st on the second circuit, progressed back straight, squeezed up between railway fences, stayed on under hard hand riding to be a close 4th at the last, took it up run-in but immediately passed by one coming from even further back. Had the benefit of Ruby Walsh and doesn’t here. Good run this season ridden by Robert Dunne, off 148 in Becher Chase (3m1½f officially good-soft, times on the day suggest softer) 5th but beaten just 3¾ lengths behind Highland Lodge who received 16 lbs. Tracked pace jumping accurately, disputed lead from Valentines, couldn’t quicken 2 out. Now 8 lbs better off for ½ a length with 4th Soll. Below best since: Tackled better company in Bobbyjoe chase (3m1f heavy) last time out, but should’ve done better. Eased off when chance had gone, 25 lengths last of 6 finishers and only 4 lbs better off with winner Boston Bob. Is he being trained with one race in mind? Or is age catching up with him? No 13 year old has won the Grand National since Sergeant Murphy in 1923, but not many have tried and Vics Canvas only came to chasing at the age of 11, so not as much mileage on the clock as many teenagers and a career best at 12 over the furthest he’s raced. Possible to make a case he’s “unexposed” over marathon distances. Also won 2014 Cork Grand National (3m4f soft) off an Irish 118 mark, unseated at the first in Irish Grand National. Acts on soft and good ground. Part owned by At The Races presenter Gary O’Brien. The more rain that falls the better for him and is possibly best of the 100/1+ shots.Conclusion:
Officially “Soft” at time of writing and times on Thursday on both courses suggest to me it is genuine soft ground. It may dry out a bit for Friday’s racing, but a lot is going to depend on what happens Friday night. Plenty of rain is currently forecast.Heavy ground would be a bit worrying for The Last Samuri and Many Clouds, former may not be suited by it and latter (although acting on it) every pound carried is worth more in lengths so is more difficult for a top weight. But “soft” ground wouldn’t worry me unduly, they appear to have all the qualities for a Grand National. Ground seems to be coming in favour of Goonyella. Not only do horses need to act on the ground, they also need greater stamina on softer going. Many of the field will be disadvantaged by very soft ground, where as more come in to it if good-soft.
Horses likely to be suited by the conditions (staying, jumping and on “soft” are (in no particular order):
Many Clouds – Going doesn’t really matter unless it’s a bog.
O’Faolains Boy – Probably ok on good-soft, soft, heavy might place too much emphasis on stamina.
Hollywell – Gold Cup 4th on Soft just as good as good ground wins, but question about heavy.
Morning Assembly – Goes well on soft or good, but stamina may be a problem on heavy.
Goonyella – The softer the ground the better.
Ucello Conti – Soft is probably just about ok, stamina doubt on heavy.
Le Reve – Goes on heavy, but possibly at his very best in less testing conditions.
The Last Samuri – Bit of a doubt whether he’ll act on heavy ground, everything else is fine.
Vics Canvas – Softer the better for his stamina.Best of the 100/1 shots – Vics Canvas
Best 50/1+ outsider – Le Reve
Best 33/1+ outsider – O’Faolains BoyI know they’re the favourites, but Many Clouds and The Last Samuri in most conditions are imo head and shoulders above the rest. If backing them both you’re getting combined odds of around 4/1.
Soft
1 The Last Samuri (dead heat)
1 Many Clouds (dead heat)
3 Goonyella
4 Le Reve
5 Holywell
6 Vics CanvasHeavy
1 Goonyella
2 Many Clouds
3 The Last Samuri
4 Vics Canvas
5 Le Reve
6 Unioniste
7 SollWell I didn’t get the winner quite right, but hopefully one or two readers might have backed The Last Samuri or Vics Canvas or (for 5 places) Goonyella each way.
Value Is EverythingI have to thank both Ginger and Bobby (VTC) for highlighting VICS CANVAS.
I’d had a decent winner in the 1st, UBAK, which was with Betvictor at 20/1.
As I had a decent pot sitting there, and comparing BV’s prices in the market
I noticed they were miles better priced than anyone else, 125/1. Remembering
they got a good write up by Ginger and Bobby I couldn’t resist it._________________________________________________________________________
09/04/2016 GBP 10.00 Each Way Single: 32 VICS CANVAS @ 125/1 Returns: £322.50
EVENT SELECTION PRICE E/W TERMS RESULT STATUS
17:15
AINTREE
Horse Racing Outright – Race
VICS CANVAS 125/1 EW1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6 Placed Settled____________________________________________________________________________
I owe you one gents
Well done, Big G – those are the ones you always remember
Stilvi, have had the impression all season, going by his demeanour, that Many Clouds left a bit of himself at Aintree last season that no horse ever gets back.
Aspell was reluctant to blame weight or ground, and maybe the horse just remembered how tough things got for him there last year.
Well done, Big G – those are the ones you always remember
Stilvi, have had the impression all season, going by his demeanour, that Many Clouds left a bit of himself at Aintree last season that no horse ever gets back.
Aspell was reluctant to blame weight or ground, and maybe the horse just remembered how tough things got for him there last year.
Going into the race it was pretty hard to crib his form and personally I thought he looked like a horse on top of his game at Kelso. Perhaps he peaked on that day?
Going into the race it was pretty hard to crib his form and personally I thought he looked like a horse on top of his game at Kelso. Perhaps he peaked on that day?
I see in the Post:
his trainer subsequently stated that he had a breathing problem that would be operated on before his next run.
Whether that means he suspected a problem before the race or that the problem was diagnosed after the race (again, Aspell mentioned nothing), who knows?
Thoroughly enjoyed this years race – first circuit those at the front going all guns blazing – were 3 ahead of the field enjoying themselves. Was nervous with the loose horse near the front … glad to see it didnt cause much trouble. Those getting tired or struggling being pulled up
Vics Canvas fantastic run … as soon as Rule the World came up I was rubbing my eyes .. had no idea he could jump those fences – with that staying pedigree the result wasn’t a surprise as he loomed up. Loved itThanks Al & Graham, just about coming down off the ceiling (and sobering up slowly as well haha)
I’ve only ever bet the winner 3 times, Seagram, Party Politics, and Neptune Collonges. My record in it is questionable, though Double Seven and Seabass were big winners for me in recent years, getting placed.
I went to the trouble of mentioning the places for my picks, and stupidly put 5 instead of 6, so I actually had Vics Canvas & Ucello Conti for 6 places (sorry for this kind of aftertiming)
Coming to the last, and I have both of them in contention, along with Rule The World, and also Gilgamboa at 160’s. I had a houseful yesterday, as I always have for The National, and it went mental as they were all in contention. I’d explained beforehand to my mates that I had a few on Betfair for very big returns, and the language got a bit colourful lol.
Vics Canvas would have been a fantastic winner as it was “on the day” but to rescue that aborted “book” with Rule The World at 110’s to 180’s, was awesome, and he became my third biggest win ever
Words can’t describe it. It’s the biggest day of the year for me, and I’ll struggle to top that in the race in future. The Exacta would have been the icing on the cake. Happy, happy days. Forgive me this wee bit of self indulgence, but to have a big winner on The National means the world to me, not to mention the ew returns on Vics Canvas & Ucello Conti.That all horses came back safe was just the icing on the cake.
Superb Bobby, great to hear you had such a brilliant National. Like I said earlier, I hadn’t
intended to bet Vics Canvas, it was only checking the National’s odds on oddschecker after
Ubak won the first, putting a good few quid in my Betvictor account, that I noticed that BV
were nearly double the odds of most at 125/1 (although he drifted out to 100/1 before the off)
and I remembered you and Ginger giving him a shout. So again I thank you for that. I topped it
off with Ivan Gronzy in the last…..always the best race to win. I know you tipped that too in
your competition so I’m guessing you hosed up in that too.If you had got that tricast up as well, I think it wouldn’t have been to our benefit
here…….you might have hung up your spurs
Thanks Graham, he really did do us proud, what a run from the old boy.
Yeah, with a few quid in my pocket, I did have a bit more than usual on Ivan Grozny, what a day.
As for the tricast, I don’t think I’d be in any fit state to tell the tale today, if that had come in haha.
Great stuff VTC. Funny how you sometimes you have little confidence in your picks and then this happens. Nowt for me this year, first time since 2011 I haven’t drawn but I’m sure like most others, the ground went against two of my picks. At least my mum had a small win on Vic’s Canvas due to one of the family been called Vic
VTC who wins 2017 grand national mate i expect next post from you to be your normal opening posts. i like SASAULITO SUNRISE though no price for him yet looks a national type of horse. i forgive him bad run at Kelso had busy year but give him a few races next year be a stronger horse for Aintree.
Jac
Words can’t describe it. It’s the biggest day of the year for me, and I’ll struggle to top that in the race in future. The Exacta would have been the icing on the cake. Happy, happy days. Forgive me this wee bit of self indulgence, but to have a big winner on The National means the world to me, not to mention the ew returns on Vics Canvas & Ucello Conti.
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