- This topic has 27 replies, 13 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 6 months ago by
.
- Posts
Five Day Decs tomorrow, but here are the entries at this moment……
I really like this race, but not had that much joy in it. The type of race where I find it hard to determine those which have speculative entries, and those which have been laid out for it.
Not really wanting to have a bet, certainly not on the eve of a forfeit stage, but I’ll kick myself should these guys stand their ground, and the price gets cut.
Holywell – Least said about his last run the better, but Jonjo, as was seen yesterday, can get them ready for a big one. Might be too early in the season for him, but only a few pounds above the mark he won the Pertemps off of, and he’s 33’s, which is big for a horse like him. Potentially dry week ahead would also be in his favour.
Closing Ceremony – Not seen since finishing well beaten over fences at Kempton in January. With such a lengthy layoff, it’s just possible he may have had issues, but there’s also the suspicion he’s been laid out for this. He’ll come here 4lb lower than when 6th in it last year, and for a horse who’s not had many races, he’s manged to squeeze in 3 wins at the track. He’s 50’s, and if all is well, that is huge
Ballyboley – Certainly known more as a chaser nowadays, but he looks nicely treated, and makes some appeal at the 25’s. Looks the pick of the stables entries, and be interesting to see if he stands his ground tomorrow.
Fine Rightly – Mad keen on this horse, but there’s just the distraction of that Betfair Chase entry on the same card, for which he’s no back number either. I’m happy to assume he’s heading over though, with the two entries on the same card. Even a quick skim over his runs last year show him to be very decent, some of those runs, including that screamer behind Carlingford Lough & Road To Riches at Leapordstown, look very good indeed. Another who’s huge at 50’s, and he’s hard to resist.
Kruzhlinin – After going off the rails a bit, his last run was a lot more like it, and not that long ago finishing 5th at The Festival in the 3 miler. Bearing in mind his last run, and from a top yard, then 25’s looks generous.
Affaire D’Honneur – Bit more of a leap of faith required with this one, but did show glimpses last year, not least at Newbury in The Betfair, and a repeat of that could see him make a mockery of his mark. He looks to have been given a proper chance by the handicapper. The 25’s won’t hold I’m sure.
Those are the 6 that stand out, but the likes of Caid Du Berlais & Ibus Du Rheu, are obvious dangers from the champion trainer, Two Taffs is clearly going in the right direction, and Festival winner Uknowwhatimeanharry, needs no introduction either.
I’ll probably have a few quid on Closing Ceremony & Fine Rightly, as I can’t let two 50-1 shots pass me by, but those 6 highlighted all make big appeal at the odds.
GL
Never looked at this thread but noticed PP cut Fine Rightly into 16’s and missed the 50’s by seconds just now with BFSB.
Looks like this race is the target. Joined in @16’s to win
Good luck
Update Now i have just missed the 33’s at WH. Got some 20’s E/W & some 25’s @ BV & SJ
Crazy 10 minutes that
Hooray got some 34’s on the exchange.
Another Fine Rightly fan here. Looks like it is the intended target so you’ve done well as ever to get the 50s Bobby. GL and to you also botchy
I have just noticed Harry in there also which won me quite a bit last year. Didn’t even know JP had bought the horse
I can’t desert UNOWHATIMEANHARRY, after him doing the business for me
on Gold Cup day in the Albert Bartlet. He is a completely transformed horse after being
transferred to Harry Fry in October 2015, having run 13 times before that with 1 win.
Harry has found something previously missing, and won 5 on the bounce, culminating in
the Albert Bartlet. 7/1 seems a good bet to me.I’m in agreement with you Bobby on AFFAIRE D’HONNEUR. I put him up last
year for the Imperial Cup, where he was kept out the back for far too long, before making
up some ground into 4th. I had fancied him before that, and had a bit of ante post in both
the Supreme and Neptune, but after his run in the Betfair that was off the cards. I think
he has potential, and if Harry Whittington can get him back to his old form of his Kempton
run in Dec 2015, 2nd behind Zulu Oscar, then he has a chance. He had the favourite for this,
Two Taffs, 7 lengths behind him there and is now 9lbs better off. He shouldn’t be a 25/1 shot
in my book.On a side note, I just went to buy my ticket for Gold Cup day. I was in the Guinness Stand
last year but tickets are sold out, I had to fork out a bit more for the Guinness View Package.
It’s only once a year so what the heck. I doubt I’ll see Unowhatimeanharry that day, he’s my
idea of the World Hurdle winner. I’ve already put him up at 25/1 in the ante post thread, he’s
best priced 20/1 with Ladbrokes now, that will half if he wins this.ITS MR MIX FOR ME AT 12/1 AS RUN A NICE COMEBACK. HAD CAID DU BERLAY AND TAQUIN DU SEUIL BEHIND, LOOK WHAT THOSE 2 HAVE DONE SINCE. SO FORM STANDING UP QUITE WELL
Botchy, Homer, yeah, really chuffed to nab the 50’s on Fine Rightly, now just to get him there, face a nervy few days now, though encouraged by the number of runners the trainer sends over to these shores.
Good luck with him (obviously)
This looks proper tricky but my first look has yielded one of Venetia’s YALA ENKI 16/1 which finished fifth in this race last year and ran pretty consistently all season before being outclassed behind Yorkhill at the festival and the ground might have been too quick for him.
The second one I am interested in is WESTERN CAPE who I must admit I have a soft spot for having won at 33/1 at Ascot last year with my money on but he does look a bit like another Seamus Mullins plot like Song Of Light nearly was and at 25/1 has to be interesting.
The final one I am keeping an eye on is ISLAND HEIGHTS of Lucinda Russells. He won at the meeting last year and has had a prep run and at 50/1 has to be worth a few of my pennies each way.
Good Luck Guys
Fine Rightly not declared :(
The risk we take. Hopefully can catch him at some point this season.
Yeah, all part of betting Ante-Post botchy. To be honest, kind of half expected it as the week went on, as he was starting to drift on Oddschecker, and hadn’t really seen any blue for him since Tuesday.
I’ve bet another couple though, and from my original shortlist, Ballyboley & Affaire D’Honneur, both at 16’s, will do for me.
Yeah, all part of betting Ante-Post botchy. To be honest, kind of half expected it as the week went on, as he was starting to drift on Oddschecker, and hadn’t really seen any blue for him since Tuesday.
I’ve bet another couple though, and from my original shortlist, Ballyboley & Affaire D’Honneur, both at 16’s, will do for me.
Yep, same here. I’ll just sit this one out i think now.
Best of luck with your bets.
Another fine write up, Bobby – thanks.
You were right about Affaire D’Honneur who has halved in price and, in first time headgear, was one of three on my shortlist.
I’ve left him out in the end (watch him bolt up) and split stakes between the two others Westren Warrior, 8/1 and Theo’s Charm 16/1 (also first time headgear). Both will love the ground. B Hughes is an interesting booking for WW who had a nice pipe-opener not long ago on unsuitable ground at Cheltenham.
But there is arguably more value in Theo’s Charm at 16s. He seems a bit of a character having pretty much planted himself and thrown away all chance in his final outing last season. He won by an awful long way ion heavy ground at Plumpton but should have done given the opposition and his price of 4/11.
Still, he has talent: he was beaten under ten lengths in last year’s Champion Bumper behind Moon Racer. He’s unexposed, especially as a stayer. This will be his first run at this trip and if he’s on his best behaviour (don’t know if the headgear is a good sign or a bad one) he could go well.
I love Yala Enki and his attitude and he’ll like the ground. Backed him in this last year and he ran out of petrol. Anytime he’s disappointed it has been going left-handed and that concerns me enough to leave him alone this time.
Unowhiatimeanharry could be anything and held his form remarkably well last season. But I’ve never backed him before and am not about to jinx him now!
Good luck all
I have Matorico down as a potential big handicap winner this year since i saw him absolutely hack up in a Cheltenham race last year.
The form book for that race reads ” Mid-division, headway 2 out, challenged flat, led inside final 100 yards, stayed on opened 33/1 “. Who ever wrote that must of been on the wacky backy.
Very difficult to try and pick one of these owners runners out but i just cannot leave that 25’s @ PP alone. Backed it to win for a tenner.
Odds on to be one of my cliff horses this year.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.