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Work this one out if you can. I was perusing the Festival odds on
Oddschecker, and in the Gold Cup Don Cossack is generally 5/1, 11/2
in a couple of places. I hit on the “To Win Any Race At The Festival”
market and noticed that he was 6/1 with Paddy Power. I thought this
had to be a mistake, as he is 5/1 with PP in the Gold Cup, but on
checking on PP’s site, he is indeed 6/1 to win any race, and
5/1 for the GC…….am I missing something here
Work this one out if you can. I was perusing the Festival odds on
Oddschecker, and in the Gold Cup Don Cossack is generally 5/1, 11/2
in a couple of places. I hit on the “To Win Any Race At The Festival”
market and noticed that he was 6/1 with Paddy Power. I thought this
had to be a mistake, as he is 5/1 with PP in the Gold Cup, but on
checking on PP’s site, he is indeed 6/1 to win any race, and
5/1 for the GC…….am I missing something hereSure is Big G,I logged in to my account and put £10 on at the advertised 6/1.Trouble is its obviously an error so no point in putting £500 on and the bet being void should it win….Very strange that.
Vautour won’t stay the Gold Cup trip but would win the Ryanair. The closer the festival draws near, the greater the desire will be for Walsh and Mullins to attempt to win as many of the championship races as possible and I think they’ll decide that Djakadam is Walsh’s better chance.
Had Geraghty ridden Don Cossack he’d have won the King George.So much more improvement possible in Vautour; I’d expect him to beat Cue Card any time they meet again; but staying the Gold Cup distance, up the hill, over the extra 2 furlongs, against an even more competitive field….
Surely the 5/1, 6/1 offers from PP are because the 5/1 for the Gold Cup is NRNB, whereas I assume the 6/1 is a loser if he doesn’t run at Cheltenham.
Surely the 5/1, 6/1 offers from PP are because the 5/1 for the Gold Cup is NRNB, whereas I assume the 6/1 is a loser if he doesn’t run at Cheltenham.
I see PP have taken ‘Don Cossack’ out of the ‘Win any race’ market.Looks like a blunder on their behalf imo.
Interesting that my banker of the meeting ‘Black Hercules’ (4m) trades as short as 7/1 in the Natioanl Hunt chase market, 25/1 in the RSA market and yet 8/1 to win any race with Skybet!! There’s money to be made.Obviously we don’t know whether Vautour will get 3m2f because he hasn’t tried yet, so for me, the staying debate boils down (first and foremost) to one simple question: Is he a superstar? Answer – yes.
We know Vautour stays 3m, we know he prefers left handed to right handed, we know he loves Cheltenham and we can be fairly confident that he will be fitter come March.
Believing the above to be true I will happily take 10’s on a ? vs 7/2 on Djakadam.
I think Mullins sees Douvan, UDS, Faugheen and Annie Power as complete penalty kicks. There are four festival majors – the Ryanair isn’t one of them. If he needs to ride Djakadam and Vautour in the CG to get the job done then I think he will.
Whichever side of view you take we are in for one hell of a gold cup!
Another informative run from Don Cossack today. He has a very awkward action, especially behind where both feet come out almost like a breast-stroking swimmer – he tends to do it more wth his off-hind. I suspect it’s this action that makes him tilt his head quite often (much more noticeable rounding bends, or when initially trying to pick up under pressure). His ears go one way, his nose the opposite. At Kempton his nose went left, at Aintree it went right. His long stride too makes it very difficult for him to put in a short one; he can do it, but it tends to break his rhythm and lose him ground. He also jumps quite flat at times, and I think he’s going to need an awful lot of luck at Cheltenham to win a Gold Cup.
He has a mighty engine, but that action looks even more awkward coming down the hill at Cheltenham. All in all, I think he’s going to find things happening too quickly for him. It’s highly unlikely he’ll get into a rhythm, and he’ll probably belt at least one, and need scrubbing along. I don’t think it’s so much laziness as that action of his – he looks a very honest horse, it’s just that when something happens that requires a quick move from him, he cannot make it; he’s just too big and gangly. He’ll be a place lay for me.
I’m hoping Cooper chooses Don Poli and another top jockey rides him. Two staying performances of the highest order last spring and Cooper was involved in neither.
If DC wins a Gold Cup it will be because others have either failed to complete or have run below their best – his lack of fluency in the jumping department in the Ryanair (belted the last ditch at the top of the hill) got him in trouble well before he was hampered and his inability to hold his position in the KG meant he had to use a lot of energy to get back in touch with Vautour & Cue Card before his jumping finally let him down 2 out.
As I have said in previous comments about this horse, I think he was massively flattered with the top chaser rating he got last year and the fact that connections are now talking head gear and better ground (although he won at Aintree on decent ground personally I am not sure his knee action will be best suited by Cheltenham’s undulations on similar type ground). With the exception of his Aintree & Punchestown wins last year (which I seriously doubt can be taken at face value) in his career at the highest level he has always come up short and I don’t expect him to buck that trend come March.
Still think Ricci will end up sending Vautour to the Ryanair (which regardless of people’s opinion is still a G1 race afterall and how often do you see two of his own horses race each other anyway?). To me Djakadam (assuming he makes the line up) is their best chance of winning the GC and their softly softly approach to this year’s campaign for him has purposely meant that (unlike CC, DC, DP & Vautour) he has avoided having to have a real tough grueling race on deep ground, which in the long run will pay dividends.
He’s been my idea of the Gold Cup winner for some time now Joe, but I have to
agree with your observations on his run today. He looks awkward at times, looks
to be scrubbed along long before the end, as he was in the KG when he hardly
looked settled at any time.The one thing that still gives me hope, is that despite his failure to get into
a rhythm, or perhaps Bryan Cooper’s failure to get him settled, and his occasional
unimpressive jumping style, he does get better at the end of the race. It is, like
you say, that he has a mighty engine and if Cooper can keep him on his feet and
hopefully get him into some kind of rhythm I can still see him playing a major role.The thing is, that’s a lot of if’s, which I didn’t have at the start of the season
when I felt sure he was the real deal. I still think he is an incredible animal, but
he is going to have to be if he carries these problems into the Gold Cup.There now seems to be some debate as to whether Cooper will ride DON COSSACK or
DON POLI, to be honest I would be quite happy with the likes of Paul Carberry taking
over on DC.I don’t know if he will take in the Irish Gold Cup or just go straight to the Festival
and there seems to be the question of putting some form of headgear on him for the GC.
I’m still hopeful, but it feels a little bit uncomfortable to be just “hopeful” when
we are this close to the big one.Will Carberry be back for Cheltenham?
I see they’re on for putting cheek-pieces on Don Cossack in the Gold Cup. What I don’t understand is why they didn’t put them on today. I know the thought is that the initial benefit of them wears off through use but Don Cossack will be stepping up to a trip he has never tackled before and if the furries light him up then his chance will be compromised. In my opinion there will be a greater chance of this happening with them on first time than if he had them applied on an earlier occasion, i.e. today.
Don Poli is still the horse to beat for me. Cooper faces a massive decision.
Don Cossack ran today just 19 days after a hard race and a fairly heavy fall. Not surprising well below his best.
Supposedly has an action unsuited to Cheltenham, yet with luck in running would’ve (in all probability) won the Ryanair last year. Made a mistake and lost ground at the 12th. Got back in to it when almost brought to a standstill two out, before making up ground all the way to the line. So the only mistake of his own making was at the 12th (otherwise jumped well). This also came at 2m5f, a distance short of DC’s best. Is it that surprising he was “outpaced” after his one mistake? Indeed the evidence of a 2m5f race seems to suggest he will both be quick enough and (unlike some) have enough stamina for 3m2f110yrds. Don Cossack is no Vautour, but that’s to DC’s advantage in a Gold Cup. Not the most fluent of Gold Cup candidates, but far from the worst either and jumped pretty well today – as he usually does.
Form of the Melling Chase is criticised because the second Cue Card wasn’t the horse he is today. Doesn’t need to be for Don Cossack’s win to be rated a top class effort. Cue Card only needed to run to similar form of his other runs that season; after all Don Cossack beat him by 26 lengths!
Don Cassack went on to Punchestown; beating Djakadam by 7 lengths with 6 1/2 back to Road To Riches. Coneygree had beaten the same duo 1 1/2 and 2 lengths. Can see Road To Riches was below his best, but why Djakadam? 6 1/2 – 2 = 4 1/2, The Mullins horse beat Road To Riches 4 1/2 lengths further at Punchestown than at Cheltenham. Punters too often want to believe Cheltenham Festival form to be the best. With no other evidence available, I’d rather believe Djakadam ran to the same form at Punchestown as Cheltenham, with Road To Riches 4 1/2 lengths below form. With Cue Card back to his best over Christmas, had Don Cossack completed would’ve run to pretty much the same form as Punchestown.
Value Is EverythingWill Carberry be back for Cheltenham?
I see they’re on for putting cheek-pieces on Don Cossack in the Gold Cup. What I don’t understand is why they didn’t put them on today. I know the thought is that the initial benefit of them wears off through use but Don Cossack will be stepping up to a trip he has never tackled before and if the furries light him up then his chance will be compromised. In my opinion there will be a greater chance of this happening with them on first time than if he had them applied on an earlier occasion, i.e. today.
Don Poli is still the horse to beat for me. Cooper faces a massive decision.
From what I understood Tommy, he was expected to return around the end
of January, unless there were complications that I’m unaware of. After
the leg break in September it was estimated that he would be out for up
to 4 months. Hopefully he should be back soon, but I can’t find any
update on that.I’m not sure who else might slot in, maybe Davy Russell or Paul Townend,
again I’d be happy enough with either, it depends who is not already
chalked up for connections.Ginger, this ‘almost brought to a standstill’ in the Ryanair is becoming as nonsensical as the same claims that were made on behalf of TNO when impeded by the fatal fall of Our Conor. DC’s momentum was affected, no question, but he didn’t actually lose much ground. He went into the fence marginally last in a group of 6 and came out of it having lost 2 lengths at most. Hard to say what the momentum loss cost in lengths, but he was most definitely not brought to a standstill nor anywhere close to that.
He then rallied and jumped the last quite well, and made up some ground on a tiring runner-up, but if he was a length closer to the winner at the line than he was at the last then that’s being generous.
I wouldn’t dispute he has pace when things are going his way and his rhythm is okay: he showed that in the KG too. It’s when things start going wrong that he begins to struggle. His mistake at the 12th was a minor one- he nodded – little more, but lost ground and a couple of places. he did not look comfortable to my eye coming down the hill. He’s an effective galloper, but ungainly.
One thing I’m confident is to his benefit, and that’s better ground. But there’s a price to be paid here too because everything is happening just a bit more quickly, reducing further his margin for error.
I see that the Timeform team have hung their hat very firmly on him, assessing him as the likely winner of both the Ryanair and the KG but for his bad luck. I’m confident he would not have won the Ryanair, even with a clean jump, and I doubt too that he would have got up in the King George. I’ve got a lot of respect for the Timeform guys, but from time to time they become fixated on something (Tenor Nivernais is a good example: Albertas Run’s squiggle another), and I think they’re doing it again with Don Cossack. I know you admire them greatly and subscribe, and it might well be that your assessment is independent of theirs.
Anyway, we shall see what March brings.
DC did fall in RSA the previous year and to me at the time of him being hampered 2 out in Ryanair he was already under pressure (off the bridle on the run down the hill to 3 out) and the winner hadn’t been asked a question by McCoy at the time – the interference cost him 2nd without a doubt but I am not of the opinion that he would have won the race with a clear run. Not sure it was an issue with the 2m5f distance as he went on to win the Melling Chase the following month over a furlong less on a much sharper track.
Whilst Djakadam & RTR ran well at Punchestown this was off the back of one of the most brutally run Gold Cups in recent memory, even with a 6 week plus break between races I can’t have it that Cheltenham didn’t leave its mark and took the edge off of them both.
I also think that ground conditions on the day could play a big part in who Cooper choses to ride – the softer the ground the more I think it swings in favour of Don Poli (my idea of a future National winner) and I also think RTR is starting to become a forgotten horse as he shouldn’t be too far away from wherever Djakadam finishes.
Happy to eat my words if proven wrong but I just don’t see DC winning a GC.
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