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Joe and Gord, I wished I had taken a leaf out of your book a bit
earlier, those are MONSTER bets you have running onto the Gold Cup
with CUE CARD.I was convinced I had the winner in DON COSSACK at decent odds, 8/1,
a while back, and he’s still in with a very good shout, but at what
I’ve risked and the return I’d get, it doesn’t come close to what
you guys would pick up. I love seeing a monster gamble come off, so
I wont turn down DON COSSACK winning, but I’ll happily shout CUE CARD
home come the day.The very best of luck
(Congrats on your KG win too Gord)
Don Cossack always looked to me to be a yard off the pace yesterday, carried his head to the left, and after dropping back from his prominent early position seemed to find everything hard work. I suspect he was getting very weary late on – he tried to hang in behind Cue Card going to the 2nd last and his fall looked a tired one. He’s a brave animal, but I think he wants better ground and perhaps shorter to be at his best. I’d say getting into a good rhythm is very important to his chances and he could never quite do that yesterday.
Having watched the race from a different angle, Vautour went substantially more left than it looked on Channel 4, especially going down the back, and I think returning to a left-handed track will make a serious difference to him. He was in front everywhere but the post, and I think it would be folly to make a decision about his stamina on the basis of that run. It took Cue Card a long time to get to him, so it’s not as if Vautour hit a wall and went out, as many with suspect stamina do.
Yes, of course he’d win a Champion Chase or a Ryanair, but that doesn’t mean he wouldn’t win a Gold Cup. I’d urge fans to keep the faith in this magnificent horse and take the 8s NRNB with Skybet.
Don Cossack always looked to me to be a yard off the pace yesterday, carried his head to the left, and after dropping back from his prominent early position seemed to find everything hard work. I suspect he was getting very weary late on – he tried to hang in behind Cue Card going to the 2nd last and his fall looked a tired one. He’s a brave animal, but I think he wants better ground and perhaps shorter to be at his best. I’d say getting into a good rhythm is very important to his chances and he could never quite do that yesterday.
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I agree with your comments on DON COSSACK Joe, I more or less said as
much earlier in the thread……………………….[ No idea what was amiss with Don Cossack. He did well enough to stay
in the mix because he never looked happy. I actually thought that
at one point, when he suddenly fell back from 3rd to about 6th in a
few strides, that he had gone wrong and would be pulled up. He did
get back into it but it was hard work from far too far out and I don’t
think he was going to win when he fell.].
I’m not so sure that he needs shorter, he has, apart from yesterday,
looked pretty strong at the end of his races. He ran away from Djakadam
in the last furlong, over 3m 1f in the Punchestown Gold Cup in April, so
I think he will battle well up the hill at Cheltenham but I agree he can
also be effective over shorter.I’ve watched the DC a few times and I don’t know why he didn’t settle, I’m
surprised he was still in contention when he fell. I’d be worried if he
didn’t settle in the GC, I would then have doubts about him lasting out.
There’s been some criticism of Hughes, I don’t know if that’s the answer,
I think it’s too easy to put it all on his shoulders.I think his next race will tell us a lot, unless he goes straight for the GC.
I was very taken with cue cards first run this season, and even more encouraged at his ability to finish his races after the second. For me Don Cossack needs to boss his fields and tends to flatter through beaten horses once he has sulked through the race if not getting his own way. Vatour won’t be staying the gold trip this year but give him time. I suspect Djackadam won’t put it all in at the end of the 3m 2f trip this year after last years attempt so for me the race is between cue card and don poli, and I have backed accordingly as of the start of the season. Stakes on vatour will have to be written off I’m afraid, and I certainly suspect we will see him in the QMCC rather than the Ryanair. That being said, he still probably represents Riccis best chance of a gold cup and I’d be inclined to put Djack in the Ryanair and leave Vatour to take his chance.
UDS is fallible though.Surely don poli gets massively outpaced and too far back in the gold cup to win??
can’t believe his price for the gold cup, and in running people are cueing up to back him no matter how much he is being ridden and how far back he gets in a race, they expect him to keep at it and fly up the hill.
Imo an excellent bit of placing by willie mullins as he’s face nothing that’s top class and in form.
Be interesting to see what price he will be in running 2 out in the GC 15 lengths behind and hard driven, my guess will be no bigger than 6/1.Can’t have Don Cossack, the RSA, Ryanair & KG all highlighted his jumping issues and I have already previously mentioned that his Aintree & Punchestown wins can’t be taken at face value.
As others had mentioned you would have to worry about whether Don Poli’s lack of tactical speed will see him outpaced and out of position at a vital stage in the race. Unless we get conditions similar to that of last year and it turns into a slogging match, I have cooled on him winning a GC.
Cue Card is the joker – I always thought he was a suspect stayer at 3m (got that properly wrong this year) and immediately after the KG I thought there would be no problem with him getting the GC trip until I heard Brennan’s comments about how he actually got to the bottom of him in winning the KG. That got me thinking, all of his 3m wins have been on flat tracks and going another 2f at Cheltenham proved a step too far for better KG winners of the likes of Pendil, Wayward Lad, One Man & Florida Pearl so I am back to stamina being a likely issue for him.
I don’t think Vautour will make the line up as I think 3m is the very upper limit of his stamina and even on quick ground I can’t see anyway the other jockeys would let Ruby get away with dictating his own gallop when they know stamina is a big issue, so a drop back to 2m4f in the Ryanair is the obvious alternative.
The Ricci’s are fortunate though to have Djakadam who is my idea of the winner as he goes on any ground, his stamina is assured, he is now a year older/stronger/wiser and has showed last time out that he has some tactical speed and most importantly Mullins has dodged a bullet by avoiding running him in the Lexus on that desperate ground.
I find myself sat here shaking my head in disbelief as I type this but I think I’ve gone full circle on Vautour! If someone held a gun to my head now and I was forced to stick £50 on one I honestly think I would pick Vautour at this stage…
I was definitely against him after Ascot, and if I’m honest, on first viewing of the King George! After the dust had settled though and the emotion taken away from the race, on viewing it a couple more times I’m not wholly convinced the Gold Cup is a no, no….
It was a massive improvement from Ascot IMO and gave enough evidence to me that a Gold Cup trip is not totally beyond him….It was ran in almost identical time to last years and there was about 13 lengths back to the 3rd horse Al Ferof….Paddy Brennan is on record as saying he had to get right to the bottom of Cue Card and just about empty the tank, so to only be beaten what he was still gives encouragement as far as a Gold Cup tilt is concerned in my eyes..
Cue Card for me got the run of the race in the King George too…able to sit in behind and always had something to chase down….Vautour on the other hand probably found himself in front a little earlier than expected with the poor showing of Silviniaco Conti….Ruby couldn’t do anything else as he was travelling so powerfully he just pulled himself to the front…
When taking into account it was his first ever attempt at 3 miles, and after what I thought was a pretty dodgy re-appearance at Ascot…on winter ground that the horse clearly doesn’t produce his best performances on, and the way he continually jumped out to the left again are all indications to me there could be possible improvement to come to help him run better in a Gold Cup…lets not forget he made a very good and experienced chaser in Cue Card give everything he had to beat him narrowly….going left again at Cheltenham and on better spring ground and with another couple of months preparation I’m certainly not ruling him out…
Just looking at the betting there’s only four in bookmakers eyes with a better chance of winning than him…
Djakadam is rightly favourite no question about it…been there and done it and was mightily impressive first time back, he’s at least a half and in some places a 3d of the price of Vautour so I’ll pass him over at those odds…
Don Cossack once again in the King George shows he isn’t completely the real deal and took his record in England to 1 win in 5 starts….I had reservations for the King George, especially when Coneygree was still in, that when put under pressure he can make mistakes and sometimes struggle…I wouldn’t totally rule him out, but again couldn’t back him at half the price of Vautour…
Cue Card is surely only half the price of Vautour because we know he is definitely Gold Cup bound! On the evidence of the King George run there is nothing between them, both questionable stamina wise but Vautour was only having his first run at that trip whereas Cue Card is much more experienced…with better ground and the fact he’s won at the last two festival surely Vautour (with natural progression) would readily turn that defeat to Cue Card around?
Don Poli I was starting to warm to before the Lexus. We know he’s the kind of horse who does the bare minimum, and although probably a guaranteed stayer I just don’t like his lazy style and think against a bit better horses than he struggled to beat in the Lexus he will be found out.
When questioning Vautour’s stamina and ability to see the Gold Cup trip out I think it’s important to look at the four in front of him in the betting plus those behind. As far as I can see it will be nothing like the brutal pace it was last year with Coneygree not only going at a relentless galllop, but jumping brilliantly and economically in front….I just don’t see a horse in it this year who is going to make it the test it was last year.
If Coneygree had been lining up I probably would have had the stamina doubts about Vautour, but the more and more I think about it the more I can see them sticking with the original gameplan and going for the big one and in my eyes I only think he has Djakadam to beat!
Good choice, Zam. And, remarkably, S James still go 12s
Its not remarkable though Joe,he’s 12/1 for a reason.a very big reason.Why do you think that a horse who’s stride shortened so much it actually gave ‘Cue Card’ the King George (because if he’d at least stayed on at the same pace ‘Vautour’ would have held on)….Will get 31/4m up a hillier course? Both 1st and 2nd probably wont be seen till March now because of the effort they put in and whereas we all know ‘Cue Card will pop every fence with Paddy taking a pull and stay every yard of the trip easily poor ‘Vautour’ goes into unknown territory jumping the 2nd last,if he’s flat out at Kempton you can bet your bottom dollar he will do a ‘One Man’ up the hill.
Now when I tell Rich Ricci this and the fact he actually owns a 6yo with Gold cup written all over him (2nd last year too) he’s going to say “Gord shall I run him in the Ryanair like Willie says then”?…”Dont be a Tw*t Rich” says I.”You have a monster of a horse who will jump and run em ragged in the Queen Mother and could win it for the next 3 years that could get you an invite to Tea at ‘Buck House’ too”..”Yeh but Willie says ‘UDS’ has limited potential,he wont get a yard over 2m so he’s being trained for the QMCC all year”..”Rich me old Sossage am gonna tell yo somethin now that not many folk know about Willie and that is he thinks about Nobody but Willie! You need to tell him ‘Vautour’ is running in the Champion chase and he can go and ruin Edwards Tea party he has planned”.The penny will finally drop that this years Queen Mother winner is Vautour and thats why he’s only 3/1 with a run…..10/1 is still available.
Good choice, Zam. And, remarkably, S James still go 12s
Its not remarkable though Joe,he’s 12/1 for a reason.a very big reason.Why do you think that a horse who’s stride shortened so much it actually gave ‘Cue Card’ the King George (because if he’d at least stayed on at the same pace ‘Vautour’ would have held on)….Will get 31/4m up a hillier course? Both 1st and 2nd probably wont be seen till March now because of the effort they put in and whereas we all know ‘Cue Card will pop every fence with Paddy taking a pull and stay every yard of the trip easily poor ‘Vautour’ goes into unknown territory jumping the 2nd last,if he’s flat out at Kempton you can bet your bottom dollar he will do a ‘One Man’ up the hill.
Now when I tell Rich Ricci this and the fact he actually owns a 6yo with Gold cup written all over him (2nd last year too) he’s going to say “Gord shall I run him in the Ryanair like Willie says then”?…”Dont be a Tw*t Rich” says I.”You have a monster of a horse who will jump and run em ragged in the Queen Mother and could win it for the next 3 years that could get you an invite to Tea at ‘Buck House’ too”..”Yeh but Willie says ‘UDS’ has limited potential,he wont get a yard over 2m so he’s being trained for the QMCC all year”..”Rich me old Sossage am gonna tell yo somethin now that not many folk know about Willie and that is he thinks about Nobody but Willie! You need to tell him ‘Vautour’ is running in the Champion chase and he can go and ruin Edwards Tea party he has planned”.The penny will finally drop that this years Queen Mother winner is Vautour and thats why he’s only 3/1 with a run…..10/1 is still available. Nath there’s your ‘Hitler’ video Material pal!
The other person with the say in this…and I personally think will have the biggest say is Ruby…that’s why it’s worth taking the NRNB now, because you can bet your life if Vautour goes for the Gold Cup it will be on Ruby’s say so and he will ride him over Djakadam…
He won’t keep them apart IMO just so they can have a crack at two different races…if he thinks his best chance of winning a Gold Cup is on Vautour then he will run in it, simple as…that is the race above all Ricci/Walsh/Mullins want to win…
Good choice, Zam. And, remarkably, S James still go 12s
Its not remarkable though Joe,he’s 12/1 for a reason.a very big reason.Why do you think that a horse who’s stride shortened so much it actually gave ‘Cue Card’ the King George (because if he’d at least stayed on at the same pace ‘Vautour’ would have held on)….Will get 31/4m up a hillier course? Both 1st and 2nd probably wont be seen till March now because of the effort they put in and whereas we all know ‘Cue Card will pop every fence with Paddy taking a pull and stay every yard of the trip easily poor ‘Vautour’ goes into unknown territory jumping the 2nd last,if he’s flat out at Kempton you can bet your bottom dollar he will do a ‘One Man’ up the hill.
Now when I tell Rich Ricci this and the fact he actually owns a 6yo with Gold cup written all over him (2nd last year too) he’s going to say “Gord shall I run him in the Ryanair like Willie says then”?…”Dont be a Tw*t Rich” says I.”You have a monster of a horse who will jump and run em ragged in the Queen Mother and could win it for the next 3 years that could get you an invite to Tea at ‘Buck House’ too”..”Yeh but Willie says ‘UDS’ has limited potential,he wont get a yard over 2m so he’s being trained for the QMCC all year”..”Rich me old Sossage am gonna tell yo somethin now that not many folk know about Willie and that is he thinks about Nobody but Willie! You need to tell him ‘Vautour’ is running in the Champion chase and he can go and ruin Edwards Tea party he has planned”.The penny will finally drop that this years Queen Mother winner is Vautour and thats why he’s only 3/1 with a run…..10/1 is still available. Nath there’s your ‘Hitler’ video Material pal!
Very good Gord.
Had it out with Hitler last year about Vautour, the way he won the Supreme and was touted by Willie as the best horse since Canford Cliffs you would have thought maybe a he was a potential Champion Hurdler or if they were keen to go over fences that the Arkle would be the target but going JLT route and the races they have placed him in this year suggests 2 miles is not the way to go especially as they already have the 2016 Champion Chase winner already in yard in UDS.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Gord, I doubt even Hitler would be evil enough to risk spoiling the chance of a lifetime for very small owners like those of Un De Sceaux.
Rich Ricci is a gentleman, as is Mr Mullins and the fact that the horse is in the same yard will, I’m sure, be a consideration in finalising the target. The Gold Cup is the ultimate trophy. If they want a Champion Chase, they will reckon that Douvan can do it in 2017, and I’m sure the O’Connells, who own UDS, would expect nothing else. What they won’t expect is their trainer and a co-owner in the yard with a million times the cash they’ve got, to have a change of heart that could deprive them of the QM.
Zam mentions Ruby, and he’ll be the key to this. They don’t even need to ask him if they think Vautour will get the trip, they just need to ask which he would ride: would he get off Vautour for Djakadam?
But Joe that is exactly what happened in the Champion Hurdle two years ago. As far as the O’Connells were concerned UDS was going for it but Willie didn’t want him taking on Hurricane Fly so he didn’t run.
The difference is they were going into unknown territory class wise whereas now they have the full machine.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
But Joe that is exactly what happened in the Champion Hurdle two years ago. As far as the O’Connells were concerned UDS was going for it but Willie didn’t want him taking on Hurricane Fly so he didn’t run.
And Annie Power really should have been given a chance that year as well
But Joe that is exactly what happened in the Champion Hurdle two years ago. As far as the O’Connells were concerned UDS was going for it but Willie didn’t want him taking on Hurricane Fly so he didn’t run.
Nail hit firmly on head. A terrible decision as Un De Sceaux would have walked all over Hurricane Fly. Man or mouse? Easy to see what category O’Connell is in.
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