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The over-priced horse of the race for sure Peter..Many Clouds never ran his race in last years Gold cup and still didn’t disgrace himself..He’s been 140’s on the machine and is now still massive at 55’s.A line through both ‘Don Poli’ and ‘Smad place’ say he’s the e/w bet of the race even on the high st he’s 33/1…I’ve taken all those prices and will hope he runs 2nd to Cue Card.
You could look at it that way, or you could argue both Don Poli and Smad Place are under priced?
Both Many Clouds and Smad Place have over 20 lengths to make up with Djakadam and Road To Riches on last years running and I think there’s three horses better than those two in it this year…
Smad Place could arguably be better for that breathing op and a change in running tactics…what is he though in the top grade…0/9? If he gets taken on for the lead is Wayne Hutchinson and experienced enough jockey in big races to know what to do?
Is Many Clouds as good a Gold Cup prospect this year as last? This was his main target last year and I think the National a bit of an after thought and he was well beaten at Cheltenham…
For me the class horses will prevail…stamina won’t even come into it….last year the 4 horses you would have said before were the potential improvers and the least exposed…Coneygree, Djakadam, Road To Riches and Holywell left the stayers treading water 2 out…On His Own, Many Clouds, Carlingford Lough etc….all genuine stayers, just couldn’t live with the injection of pace and were quickly left treading water…
This year I can see Vautour and Cue Card making a similar move coming round the bend….they will breeze clear and the plodders will start going up and down on the spot…the only other one I can see maybe going with those two is Don Cossack, although I don’t like his record over here and think he makes too many mistakes when put under pressure…Djakadam and Road To Riches (if he runs) will at some point remember back to last year and how their hearts were broken up the hill and down tools and think I ain’t doing that again like last year!
Ruby, after all his last fence falls of late will steady Vautour like Nico did with the champ last year and he will ping it….he’ll shake the reigns and Vautour will draw clear to break the Tizzards hearts and crush their million bonus dreams…the winning distance wil be about 6 lengths…
The extra distance will be to Cue Card’s advantage, imo. He needed every single inch of the KG. His problem will be finding about half a stone improvement, which I believe he’ll need to do IF Vautour turns up in the same form as last year (note the big if).
Smad Place and Many Clouds have an interesting correlation here: Many Clouds won the Cotswold (Betbright) last year and looked all over the GC winner to me straight after that race, but he ran no race at Cheltenham. This year Smad Place looked great value after winning the Cotswold, but my enthusiasm was blunted when I recalled the GC run of Many Clouds last year – does that race take too much out of a horse that close to the festival?
The Irish Gold Cup – where Carlingford Lough won – is another, held at the same time as the Cotswold, which has an appalling record of producing GC winners. Perhaps it’s a combination of the ground and the severity of the stamina challenge that affects a horse and means there’ll be a longer than normal recovery time.
Also, Many Clouds, although running well enough, has not looked the same horse to me after the National (unfortunately, as I’ve backed him at 25s for it). His courage is still there, but I haven’t seen the same spark in him: he seems to be doing what he’s doing through bravery rather than desire.
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Hope you’re keeping an account of all these bets you’re having that probably won’t run Gord.Thats rich coming from you ya cheeky sossage! I have backed a total of 5 horses from an Ante-Post field of over a 100 entries in the past year,that is a mere 5% of runners..You will have backed 50% of a field of 14 horses come the day itself.I have lost a total of £300 at the moment on 3 Non-runners for the race.If Many Clouds was to win I would show a £2k profit on the race purely because of the huge prices I have to small stakes.However if Cue Card wins…If! I mean when Cue Card wins I will show a profit of almost £5k thats because I have him in doubles to win the King George aswell as 14/1 down.Sadly I missed the really big prices on Joes horse.Just remember TAPK historically wins the Gold cup every 2 years and I lost last year
That’s four non-runners now.
Many Clouds going to rearranged Kelso on Sunday Gord.Sorry mate but I think right decision, don’t want Many Clouds having a hard race in the Gold Cup before Aintree.
Value Is EverythingAlso, Many Clouds, although running well enough, has not looked the same horse to me after the National (unfortunately, as I’ve backed him at 25s for it). His courage is still there, but I haven’t seen the same spark in him: he seems to be doing what he’s doing through bravery rather than desire.
Disagree Joe.
2nd to Don Poli at least as good as any performance Many Clouds has put up, potentially better than ever. Trying to give a horse who’s just 6/1 for the Gold Cup 5 lbs and getting beaten only 4 lengths (coming out the better horse at the weights)… Why are you disappointed in that?
Travelled better than I’ve seen from him against Smad Place before fitness told.
Provided he comes through Kelso at the weekend I believe we’ll see a career best from Many Clouds at Aintree. Still a cracking bet @ 12/1 and we’ve got 25’s!
Although The Last Samuri might be too good at the weights.Value Is Everything“Vautour has done far better work this week than he has in the last three (weeks).
“That tells me he should go for the Gold Cup. Every year at Christmas Vautour disappoints us a bit, and every year he improves in the spring and for the hill at Cheltenham. This year looks no different. We expect a huge run.”
Bit of positive news for Vautour backers.
That’s good news, Dex. If Vautour turns up in the same mood as last year, I expect the same imperious performance from him.
Having listened all week to preview panelists saying they believe Cooper will desert Don Cossack for Don Poli, I can only imagine he’s about to be jocked off it as DC is very strong in the market and now favourite to start fav. I was pretty confident that once Ruby decided to ride Vautour, he’d go off t about 5/2. I’m not so sure now.
Denis o Regan was very keen on Don Poli last night at one of the preview nights. He maybe stayer but will he have the pace? Not for me
The more I think about this race the more I see CC and Vautour fighting it out up the hill….and it looks like good will be in the going description if the long range forecast is anything to go by
I really can’t understand with some of these preview nights why people really pay any attention to panelists who have no connection with a horse or extra information . Like what would Denis o Regan know about Don Poli that any punter wouldn’t?
I really can’t understand with some of these preview nights why people really pay any attention to panelists who have no connection with a horse or extra information . Like what would Denis o Regan know about Don Poli that any punter wouldn’t?
I’d have to disagree with you there TWM. I think there’s every possibility that someone who is
in the sport, rubbing shoulders with jockeys in the changing rooms and in close contact with owners
and trainers, even if not the owner or trainer of a particular horse, is probably in a better position
to be “in the know” than your average punter.That doesn’t mean to say that he’s got it right, but I think being in the position that he’s in, gives
him a head start…..just my opinion.imo,
Every jockey, trainer and owner is biased about their own horses and others horses. Very few of them know the form book. I’d much rather hear from form experts than owners, trainers or jockeys.But then again, I’d rather listen to myself. :lol:
Value Is EverythingThe previews are just Chinese whispers every year.
Rich Ricci has said that Vautour will not run at the festival if he doesn’t run in the Gold Cup.
Vautour is the most likely winner, unless its worse than soft. I really can’t have Don Cossack. I think he bullies small fields, and his Fez form is horrid.
I hope Vautour wins with Cue Card and Smad Place in behind.
“Vautour has done far better work this week than he has in the last three (weeks).
“That tells me he should go for the Gold Cup. Every year at Christmas Vautour disappoints us a bit, and every year he improves in the spring and for the hill at Cheltenham. This year looks no different. We expect a huge run.”
I don’t get it when Mullins says “…every year at Christmas Vautour disappoints us a bit…”
Yeah, that 2nd to Cue Card in the KG looks a HUGE DISAPPOINTMENT to me too. Please retire him if you’re serious about his KG run.imo,
Every jockey, trainer and owner is biased about their own horses and others horses. Very few of them know the form book. I’d much rather hear from form experts than owners, trainers or jockeys.But then again, I’d rather listen to myself.
I think you’re absolutely right Ginger when it comes to their own horses, you’re always
going to get the upbeat spin. We only get “the right sounds” coming out of a yard when
they chose to give it, the advantage a jockey has is that being in the changing rooms
and being close friends of other jockeys, and some trainers and owners, that they are
more likely to hear a “whisper” that something is going particularly well, when a yard
for obvious reasons might like to play their cards close to their chest.For example, O’Regan rides a fair bit for AJ Martin, I’d think it quite possible that
he might get the “whisper” in advance when Tony has been holding one of his back for a
particular race, which as we know he is prone to do, and that it’s cherry ripe.As for knowledge of the form book, I take you point Ginge
Ruby, he’s said for a while now that he expects 10lbs to 14lbs improvement on Kempton. The horse seems to have a pattern that’s becoming established. as with last year, they worried about him right up to the final week as he wasn’t blooming. Now he is.
The KG form is already the best by some margin. Imagine him coming on a stone from that.
Seriously, if you still have the CH4 recording, have a look at Vautour again from last year. He is so well you can almost see that old Ready Brek fizzing ring around him.
When he pulled up, he was still buzzing going back down the horsewalk. That’s why I say if he turns up next Friday like that, there isn’t a horse in the field that will trouble him.
“Vautour has done far better work this week than he has in the last three (weeks).
“That tells me he should go for the Gold Cup. Every year at Christmas Vautour disappoints us a bit, and every year he improves in the spring and for the hill at Cheltenham. This year looks no different. We expect a huge run.”
I don’t get it when Mullins says “…every year at Christmas Vautour disappoints us a bit…”
Yeah, that 2nd to Cue Card in the KG looks a HUGE DISAPPOINTMENT to me too. Please retire him if you’re serious about his KG run.If you take that at face value then it means Vautour is in for a huge run. Second in a King George when not quite fit with Ruby making to much use of him to early.
I’m sure a lot of you know this already but it seems some might not be aware.
YOU CAN WATCH ANY RACE OVER THE LAST 4/5 YEARS ON SPORTINGLIFE.com so I’ve been watching all last years races and this years for formIf the King George at Kempton had been 100 metres shorter Vautour would have been a comfortable winner and around 2/1 for the Gold Cup. Was he at his best in the KG?…unlikely based on previous performances around that time of year, Does he prefer racing on left hand courses? The balance of his form clearly shows he prefers going left handed. Does he have course winning form? Indeed he does. Will Ruby Walsh choose to ride him? Unless the going ends up heavy he will. Is he still improving? Very likely, most chasers improve between ages 7 and 8. Is there a better jumper in the field? Based on his performance in last years JLT no, if he jumps like that he will take lengths off the field during the race. Will he show his best form at Cheltenham? Based on last 2 years performances he will, if there is any doubt to his well being Ruby will switch to Djakadam. Is he the class horse of the race? I think so. Does he have the best jockey in the race? Indeed he does. The only doubt is will he stay. Still available at 9/2, with drying ground and Ruby riding those odds will shrink. I’m am amazed that Don Cossack is as short as 7/2, he has failed to win on 2 previous attempts at Cheltenham in much easier races. Cue Card is unlikely to be improving at the age of 10, Djakadam is going into the race on the back of a fall and an interupted preparation, Don Poli has a stone to find on form and should be aimed at the Grand National. The rest of the field are making up the numbers. GOTTA BE VAUTOUR
Although The Last Samuri might be too good at the weights.
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