Long Walk Hurdle 2015

Reve De Sivola is not a bad price at 9/2 though this could be a stronger renewal certainly than last years running.

VTC – Karezak is stepping up a mile in trip here, it’s one tough ask to expect the trip to bring about the type of improvement needed for him to win this.

Thistlecrack is the progressive one that could improve although Saphir Du Rheu is actually a year younger than him. Will he be the same over hurdles following his stint over fences?

Fascinating contest.

I have to say at 25/1 Aqualim is a bet to nothing. Stayed on very well last time and in another few strides would have been second. I think a strong pace will suit down to the ground and there will be nothing staying on stronger at the end

Connections of Karezak are taking a punt in upping him in trip first time at such a high level, but if he gets it, he appeals EW at 50s (Betbright) though there’s always the chance of that fateful NR leaving just 7

Backed Thistlecrack for the World Hurdle but have had my doubts ever since. Think his jumping frailties might be exposed today.

Isn’t Reve De Sivola EW the logical way to go? Got the course, ground and likely a nice lead. Good chance of winning and will have to seriously under perform to finish out of the three.

Thistlecrack impressive but is he soft ground dependant?

Thistlecrack was a mightily impressive winner by 13 lengths in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices Hurdle on good ground at Aintree last Spring LD. He acts on a sound and a soft surface. If you aren’t on yet, take the 4/1 with Laddies or Boyle now!

LD73 wrote:

The offical ground for Aintree was Good to Soft but I am just a bit wary that people are getting carried away with the performance – Reve De Sivola reserves his best runs of the season for this race (usually on much softer ground) and has been beaten 30L and 18L in the last two runnings of the World Hurdles.

Take the winner out of the race and you wouldn’t be looking at any of the others (Saphir Du Rheu aside who I think is still feeling the effects of his tough race in the Hennessy) making much of an impact at Cheltenham. With the picture of who will actually be turning up for the race still unclear – Annie Power, Windsor Park (dark horse who beat Nichols Canyon inlast years Neptune), The New One, Whisper (proper spring horse), Martello Tower (albert Bartlett winner) and More of That (could switch back if novice chasing goes wrong) still all quoted in the betting, I wouldn’t be taking 4-1 about him myself.

Official going at Aintree was Good-soft (good in places) LD. I’d have it more Good than good-soft personally. But do you think Cheltenham will allow the March ground to be any firmer?

Ground today officially Good-soft (soft in places). Difficult to tell what the ground was like today. They seemed to finish more strung out/tired than I’d expect for truly good-soft, where as the time of The Ladbroke suggests genuine good-soft. Suspect first two in the last were particularly well handicapped which (along with strong pace) meant a faster time than you’d expect.

Official going last year was good-soft when Reve De Sivola beat Zarkandar. Can’t really see how Reve can be rated as being that much (if anything) below previous runnings of the race. RDS beat Deputy Dan by pretty much the distance you’d expect from their form.

You say “wouldn’t be looking at any of the others (Saphir Du Rheu aside who I think is still feeling the effects of his tough race in the Hennessy) making much of an impact at Cheltenham”. Reve was beaten just a neck by Saphir in the Cleeve, RDS running right up to his best failing by a neck to give the Nicholls horse 4 lbs. ie RDS coming out of that race a 3 lbs better horse than SDR. Cole Harden only beat Saphir by 3 1/4 lengths in the Stayers Hurdle. Now may be Saphir improved a bit? But on Cleeve form Reve would’ve only been touched off by CH in the Stayers Hurdle. The reason why Reve is not at least a place Cheltenham Festival horse is surely nothing to do with ability? It’s because of going/not particularly a Spring horse these days.

On a strict line between Thistlecrack and Reve De Sivola today, Reve De Sivola and Saphir De Rheu’s Cleeve and Saphir De Rheu and Cole Harden’s World Hurdle – You could say Thistlecrack would’ve won by 7 lengths at the Cheltenham Festival. Now I suspect Saphir De Rheu did improve a bit between Cleeve and World Hurdles, but not 7 lengths. I’d be happy just to say Thistlecrack is better than Cole Harden and Tizzard’s horse is still improving!

Nichols Canyon ran below form in the Neptune, Mullins horse beaten 1 1/4 lengths by Parlour Games and only held on to third by a neck from Vyta Du Roc. Not that I believe the form, but Vyta Du Roc was beaten 5 1/4 by Windsor Park at Cheltenham, 13 by Thistlecrack at Aintree. Thistlecrack has improved a lot this term and Windsor Park has a lot of improvement to make in a short space of time. Even allowing for Whisper being a Spring horse, ran as if amiss at Newbury and is known to be fragile. Annie Power might turn up in this, but only might. With an interupted preparation suspect Mullins will go for the Mares. Seems to like the easy option. Where is The New One?

Of course novice chasers or established chasers can come back to hurdles, but Thistlecrack only needs to have a better than 20% chance to be a good bet @ 4/1, in my opinion it’s more like 30% at this stage. imo he’s about as good now as an average Stayers Hurdle winner, with more progress likely.

The Cleeve was run on pretty soft ground which we know RDS needs – I think he has run to his typical Ascot form no doubt but his runs in the World Hurdle show that things seem to happen much too fast for him there (his hit and miss jumping is further exposed as well) so he won’t be involved unless it turns up soft on the day. Today’s ground was sending out mixed messages as you said – may be chase course was softer than the hurdles course?

Don’t think you can read too much into comparisons between Ascot and Cheltenham form but the one thing Thistlecrack has on his side is he is open to more improvement than the vast majority of his potential rivals. SDR throws in the odd stinker from time to time, I remember him getting turned over at Fontwell at long odds on about 20 days or so after beating Whisper at Fos Las, it has been only 22 days on from the tough race in the Henessy and you would also have to question whether the Nicholls yard is firing on all cylinders at the moment – I think come March he will be there or thereabouts.

As to the other horses I mentioned Windsor Park is the dark horse and if he was with most other trainers you would say the time/experience issues would be a major problem but Weld is a master at preparing horses for the big race, also I don’t think NC underperformed at Cheltenham so much as it was a case of them getting the tactics wrong (held up instead of front running). The New One is strange case, there was mention of a chasing campaign then they would try him in the Christmas Hurdle to see where they stood – for me his chance at the Champion Hurdle has passed. He was won a Neptune and an Aintree Hurdle over 2m5f, won on from good to heavy ground, so a step up to 3m would be an obvious move and there would be nothing in the race that would have his turn of foot.

Annie Power could go to the Mares race but the owners also have Vroum Vroum Mag who they could quite easily switch back to hurdles (as they seem reluctant to go against the boys over fences and there are not that many mares races over fences they can aim at) so it is not inconceivable that AP could turn up – as I said the picture is far too cloudy with too much water to pass under the bridge to be taking 4-1 (fair play to those who have though).

The Cleeve Hurdle will be a good test for him next especially if it is run on good ground but I did note that Scudamore mentioned that he gets a little wound up in the pre lims and that could be a worry at the Festival.