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Er, that was my point! He tried disputing the lead, but he was the one who failed, not Vautour.
Now Irish Saint is no Cue Card or Smad Place, but he lined up at Cheltenham with 5 fencing runs behind him to Vautour’s 3, and it was probably a sensible plan to try to unsettle the less experienced ‘chaser. But not only did Vautour not flinch, he brushed IS aside a long way from home.
Anyway, I’ve done this to death now, with my colours not so much nailed to the mast as plated, screwed and superglued. It’s up to the horse now to do what I believe he can, or it will be up to me to reserve some stomach space for a large, cold helping of humble pie.
Happy Christmas
Djakadam will win the Gold Cup imho. Have backed road to riches at 20s and will be backing Djakadam closer to the day
Er, that was my point! He tried disputing the lead, but he was the one who failed, not Vautour.
Now Irish Saint is no Cue Card or Smad Place, but he lined up at Cheltenham with 5 fencing runs behind him to Vautour’s 3, and it was probably a sensible plan to try to unsettle the less experienced ‘chaser. But not only did Vautour not flinch, he brushed IS aside a long way from home.
Anyway, I’ve done this to death now, with my colours not so much nailed to the mast as plated, screwed and superglued. It’s up to the horse now to do what I believe he can, or it will be up to me to reserve some stomach space for a large, cold helping of humble pie.
Happy Christmas
You miss the point about horses taking Vautour on Joe.
It is not enough just to say if a horse takes Vautour on it will be the other one (not Vautour) who fails. He’d have a better chance of doing that at 2m4f on good than 3m on soft. Of course. Ruby could decide not to allow Smad Place or Silviniaco Conti to lead and just go a bit faster. If the other two jockeys relent then no problem. But if the other two do bustle him up Ruby runs the risk of going too fast. At 3m speed is his forte, so slower they go they better; for a sprint or faster finish.
Do you remember the 1987 race? Beau Ranger and Cybrandian took Desert Orchid on and went much too fast for all three’s own good. The held up Nupsala picking up the pieces.
I’ve used this example because it exaggerates what often happens when there’s more than one wanting to lead.
Out of Silvi, Vautour and Smad, which horse’s stamina is most likely to fail if setting faster than even fractions? Unlike Vautour, it’s in both Silvi and Smad’s best interests to make it a stamina test with a strong pace.Value Is EverythingDoes Vautour have to lead….?
I think it was Mullins that said he’ll be happy to get a toe in the race and follow.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Valseur Lido is a decent horse but in reality I think you’d want at least 50-1 to think he’s value, when you think that he’s a stone or more rated behind the principals and has to race them off level weights. Look at what Vautour did to him at Cheltenham. It stretches belief that even if arguably conditions are more in his favour this time around, that he can turn the form on it’s head.
I think What Vautour did in the JLT, that’s why we follow racing to see breathtaking displays like that. Having said that it’s become almost commonplace from Mullin’s horses to win like that now, Faugheen, Douvan, Djakadam have all done remarkable things of late which makes me wonder what they are feeding them over there
Of all those Vautour was the most impressive though. If he doesn’t build on that this season and win some big races I think it will be disappointing, not just for connections but for the racing game in general. We need our stars.
I just have a feeling that Vautour is capable of a performance which will just take the public’s breath away, they’ll be awwws and aaahs, at how easily he destroys the opposition, I just hope we don’t have to wait past this Saturday.
Does Vautour have to lead….?
I think it was Mullins that said he’ll be happy to get a toe in the race and follow.We don’t know the answer to that question Nathan, but the mere fact we do not know after a horse has had so many runs – makes it a negative.
If Vautour is not going to lead, will be doing something he’s not used to in a race and therefore will have less chance of winning than form/ability suggests. But no stable tells the press “he needs to lead”, because it then tells his rivals connections how to beat the horse. So just because a trainer says “he’ll be happy to get a toe in the race and follow”, doesn’t mean it will happen and could even be trying to put his rivals away. Can easily say after the race “wasn’t the plan, but Ruby found himself in front”.
Value Is EverythingJamie Lynch tells it better than I can with a little help from Bob and Midge.
BAND AID 2015 (King George Remix)
It’s King George time
There’s a horse needs to be laid.
At Kempton Park
He’s going right and he might not stay.
But Irish stars – there’s plenty,
One can spread a smile of joy.
Put your money on the Don
At Christmas time.
But say a prayer,
Pray for the Mullins one.
Over three miles, it’s hard
To let him bowl along.
There’s a zone outside his comfort
And it’s a zone of dread and fear.
One the Don and Cue Card flow in.
For Vautour it ends in tears.
And the alarm bells at Ascot
Are the clanging chimes of doom.
Well exploit, bank on the Don,
Instead of Cue.
And we won’t see Sil Co win again this Christmas time.
The blinkers gift he’ll get this year spells strife.
Al Ferof never grows,
Smad’s rating is too low.
You must know it’s Cossack’s prize bar falls.
9/4 might be not for everyone.
Here’s to them, at 3 out when he’s 2s on.
You must know it’s Cossack’s prize bar falls.
Heed these words: Bet Don, no frets, King George, watch him win.
Heed these words: Bet Don, no frets, King George, watch him win.
Value Is EverythingTimeform’s Jamie Lynch tells it better than I can with a little help from Bob and Midge.
BAND AID 2015 (King George Remix)
…
It’s King George time
There’s a horse needs to be laid.
At Kempton Park
He’s going right and he might not stay.
…
But Irish stars – there’s plenty,
One can spread a smile of joy.
Put your money on the Don
At Christmas time.
…
But say a prayer,
Pray for the Mullins one.
Over three miles, it’s hard
To let him bowl along.
There’s a zone outside his comfort
And it’s a zone of dread and fear.
One the Don and Cue Card flow in.
For Vautour it ends in tears.
…
And the alarm bells at Ascot
Are the clanging chimes of doom.
Well exploit, bank on the Don,
Instead of Cue.
…
And we won’t see Sil Co win again this Christmas time.
The blinkers gift he’ll get this year spells strife.
Al Ferof never grows,
Smad’s rating is too low.
You must know it’s Cossack’s prize bar falls.
…
9/4 might be not for everyone.
Here’s to them, at 3 out when he’s 2s on.
You must know it’s Cossack’s prize bar falls.
…
Heed these words: Bet Don, no frets, King George, watch him win.
Heed these words: Bet Don, no frets, King George, watch him win.
Value Is EverythingI would love cue card to win but just suspect this isn’t his track and the ever underrated left right factor may be at play here
So is a constantly sneered at horse for some strange reason. Last years win was a faultless round of jumping and travelling and I wouldn’t have backed many to take that in successfully
Vautours return run was not good enough. Excuses or not and the form has been let down subsequently. For me a lit of Mullins horses are best caught early in their careers. Bad value at the price
Cossack has all the credentials but is too short so I’m thinking smad place. Clearly a different horse this year and whilst race wasn’t prime target that performance resonated.
Ginger, I don’t think I’m missing the point (and your assumption always seems to be that your co-debater is missing the point rather than the possibility that you, perhaps, haven’t explained your point cogently) as we are at cross purposes. There are two aspects to taking a horse on: racing alongside in an effort to break his concentration at fences (epic fail for Irish Saint), and racing that horse for the lead, which is what I think you are talking about.
I have zero concerns on that front: Ruby will not jeopardise his chance by getting into a battle for the lead.
Your contention elsewhere that he is used to leading and will be at a disadvantage purely because of that is highly speculative imo. When does Ruby not lead when riding long odds-on chances, or at the festival when others seem happy to allow him to dictate? I think you are confusing the preferences of the jockey with the preferences of the horse. Faugheen, for example has made all much more often than Vautour; would you have expected then that he should have fought Nichols Canyon for the lead last time?
I’d expect Vautour to jump off in midfield on Saturday, or no more prominent than third. I’m not saying he won’t lead early, but he’ll only do that if Ruby believes the pace is too slow – highly unlikely, I think.
I hope Jamie Lynch doesn’t give up the day job.
a good effort nonetheless.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Ginger, I don’t think I’m missing the point (and your assumption always seems to be that your co-debater is missing the point rather than the possibility that you, perhaps, haven’t explained your point cogently) as we are at cross purposes. There are two aspects to taking a horse on: racing alongside in an effort to break his concentration at fences (epic fail for Irish Saint), and racing that horse for the lead, which is what I think you are talking about.
I have zero concerns on that front: Ruby will not jeopardise his chance by getting into a battle for the lead.
Your contention elsewhere that he is used to leading and will be at a disadvantage purely because of that is highly speculative imo. When does Ruby not lead when riding long odds-on chances, or at the festival when others seem happy to allow him to dictate? I think you are confusing the preferences of the jockey with the preferences of the horse. Faugheen, for example has made all much more often than Vautour; would you have expected then that he should have fought Nichols Canyon for the lead last time?
I’d expect Vautour to jump off in midfield on Saturday, or no more prominent than third. I’m not saying he won’t lead early, but he’ll only do that if Ruby believes the pace is too slow – highly unlikely, I think.
Joe,
Am sorry you don’t think my case has been argued cogently, I’ll try harder. No we are not at “cross purposes”.I suppose you can call being alongside “taking a horse on”, but there are grades of difficulty. Some front runners don’t like another horse alongside, but – particularly if there’s horse widths (space) between them – most don’t mind it. ie In the meaning of “taking a horse on”, being alongside is (to the majority of front runners) only minor nuisance value. We don’t know about other aspects of “taking Vautour on”.
More horses don’t “like” another aspect of “taking a horse on”; being headed. Sometimes this “not liking” is to do with the horse’s temperament. Horses are pack animals afer all, some are natural leaders (front-runners). Sometimes the “not liking” takes the appearence of making more mistakes than usual.
Worse still is another aspect of “taking a horse on”; getting around half a length down. When done deliberately it’s called “half-lengthing”, encouraging a rival to take off half a length too soon. Presumably usually done by mistake. Although this type can happen with hold up horses too, it is more of a problem with natural front runners, because they aren’t used to any horse in front of them. Have you ever noticed a lot of front-runners invariably jump well when in front and then make mistakes immediately once headed? This happens far too often to solely blame getting tired. imo they get distracted.
Last aspect of “taking a horse on” is where a natural front runner is unable to lead or chooses not to lead. When a jockey tries positioning his mount in behind rivals the horse often fails to settle fully. In a recent interview Colin Tizzard said the reason Cue Card used to make the running was he’d settle better that way. Only recently learnt to settle in behind. Desert Orchid was a similar type, best/settled better in front in his younger days before maturing and becoming more amenable to restraint. Vautour is still young. If “Ruby will not jeopardise his chance by getting into a battle for the lead” then there will be a greater chance of not settling and/or making mistakes. One way a jockey can reduce the chance of this happening (to a natural front runner when sitting third or fourth) is by racing wide, with a clear view of his fences. However, Vautour has jumped left on a right-handed course before and therefore runs the risk of losing even more ground if taking the wide route.
Some front runners are not affected by any aspects of “taking a horse on”, so far it appears Vautour is immune to the first aspect; we do not know about the rest. You are wrong, I have not said Vautour is “used to leading and will be at a disadvantage purely because of that”. I’ve said it is a distinct possibility and that distinct possibility needs to be taken in to account when assessing what price I am willing to back the horse. Considering all the negatives am surprised how short Vautour is.
Of course jockey and/or trainer can have preferences. Trainers often like their horses ridden a certain way. It may well be the trainer/jockey has made the horse in to a front-runner. But the fact remains he’s front run on almost every start and therefore not used to anything else. Am surprised you can not see that if a horse is unable to be ridden the way it is usually ridden, then it has less chance of winning. Because the percentage of winners from horses that do not run their usual tactics is less than those who do. Some prove themselves versatile to tactics. But we do not yet know whether Vautour is fully effective being taken on or held up. Unfortunately we can not back Vautour once he’s past the winning post, therefore punters need to allow for the chance of him not being as effective.
When studying a race, I make notes of how every horse has been ridden to achieve its best ratings/performances. FR Front runner (I’d class Vautour as “FR”), FR/RP Front runner or races prominently, RP/TP Races prominently (including sometimes front-running) or tracks pace, TP/mid Tracks pace or races mid-division, etc etc. Also taking note of distances they’ve raced over. This gives me an idea of whether the horse is likely to get its favoured position and if the likely pace will suit each horse. You may think because a horse has not shown it “needs to lead” (or at least a share) you don’t need to take it in to account. This is not true. A high percentage of “front runners” unable to lead fail to run to form and this must be taken in to account when assessing the price a punter is willing to take (value). If not taking it in to account he’d be constantly backing horses with less than their fair chance of winning.
Doesn’t Faugheen go some way to proving my point? Faugheen’s best performances have come when leading. Front runner not allowed to lead – makes more mistakes and fails to run to form. He may well get away with it sometimes when unable to lead, but generally his best chance of winning (or more’s to the point – of putting up a performance near to his best) is when front-running. Nichols Canyon is another who’s put up his best performances racing prominently; worst one racing in mid-field, not settling in the Neptune.
You’re wrong though, according to Racing Post in-running comments Vautour has made all or virtually all more often than Faugheen.
Vautour may be held up, settle well and win, but I find your “zero concerns” astounding Joe.
May the best horse win.
Value Is EverythingDon Cossack seems to run faster at the end of his races, this has been the case in the Melling and the Punchestown Gold cup (short and long distances). I think he’ll take all the beating (with others questionable over track and distance) but have a feeling Silviniaco Conti will run a very big race.
I still haven’t made my mind up entirely. I hope whoever wins, wins well. Such a competitive race but racing needs superstars. Especially with Coneygree out for the season.
My 100% book:
Don Cossack 15/8
Cue Card 3/1
Vautour 6/1
Silviniaco Conti 10/1
Smad Place 14/1
Al Ferof 20/1
Valseur Lido 25/1
Irish Cavalier 66/1
Ballynagor 400/1Value Is EverythingDoesn’t Faugheen go some way to proving my point? Faugheen’s best performances have come when leading. Front runner not allowed to lead – makes more mistakes and fails to run to form. He may well get away with it sometimes when unable to lead, but generally his best chance of winning (or more’s to the point – of putting up a performance near to his best) is when front-running. Nichols Canyon is another who’s put up his best performances racing prominently; worst one racing in mid-field, not settling in the Neptune.
GT, do you think it’s possible that the horses you’ve mentioned do not have to lead due to some preference for being in front, but rather they are seen to best effect from the front as it plays to their strengths?
Nichols Canyon is an excellent example. He has a high cruising speed but doesn’t possess a potent turn of foot – his strength is an ability to travel strongly, jump well at speed and stay well. These strengths are put to best use when racing prominently or front running. To say he has to front run would be wide of the mark though imo (as it would with Faugheen). If there was something willing to go fast enough to take this pair on they’d be equally as effective dropped in second or third in my view, and perhaps likely to put up a bigger performance figure-wise.
I’m against Vautour tomorrow but not because of tactics. As long as they’re going fast enough up front I’m sure connections will be happy to see him dropped in. My issue with Vautour is that he has never produced anything like his March performances in December/January. Take this and add it to the potential of him jumping to his right, and stepping into the unknown territory of three miles, and the possibility that he is in fact a happier horse when in front, and he’s not a bet. For the record, I don’t think he needs to be in front, nor will the trip be an issue, but there is a chance they will be. As I said earlier in the race, I’d be very keen on seeing a Gold Cup price for Vautour should he be beaten.
Don Cossack is by far the likeliest winner for me, and I’ll likely back him tomorrow, and already on Valseur Lido e/w at 25’s.
Er, that was my point! He tried disputing the lead, but he was the one who failed, not Vautour.
Now Irish Saint is no Cue Card or Smad Place, but he lined up at Cheltenham with 5 fencing runs behind him to Vautour’s 3, and it was probably a sensible plan to try to unsettle the less experienced ‘chaser. But not only did Vautour not flinch, he brushed IS aside a long way from home.
Anyway, I’ve done this to death now, with my colours not so much nailed to the mast as plated, screwed and superglued. It’s up to the horse now to do what I believe he can, or it will be up to me to reserve some stomach space for a large, cold helping of humble pie.
Happy Christmas
You miss the point about horses taking Vautour on Joe.
It is not enough just to say if a horse takes Vautour on it will be the other one (not Vautour) who fails. He’d have a better chance of doing that at 2m4f on good than 3m on soft. Of course. Ruby could decide not to allow Smad Place or Silviniaco Conti to lead and just go a bit faster. If the other two jockeys relent then no problem. But if the other two do bustle him up Ruby runs the risk of going too fast. At 3m speed is his forte, so slower they go they better; for a sprint or faster finish.
Do you remember the 1987 race? Beau Ranger and Cybrandian took Desert Orchid on and went much too fast for all three’s own good. The held up Nupsala picking up the pieces.
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I’ve used this example because it exaggerates what often happens when there’s more than one wanting to lead.
Out of Silvi, Vautour and Smad, which horse’s stamina is most likely to fail if setting faster than even fractions? Unlike Vautour, it’s in both Silvi and Smad’s best interests to make it a stamina test with a strong pace.I recall that race v well, incredible pace; often wonder if was timed over the first few fences
GT, do you think it’s possible that the horses you’ve mentioned do not have to lead due to some preference for being in front, but rather they are seen to best effect from the front as it plays to their strengths?
Nichols Canyon is an excellent example. He has a high cruising speed but doesn’t possess a potent turn of foot – his strength is an ability to travel strongly, jump well at speed and stay well. These strengths are put to best use when racing prominently or front running. To say he has to front run would be wide of the mark though imo (as it would with Faugheen). If there was something willing to go fast enough to take this pair on they’d be equally as effective dropped in second or third in my view, and perhaps likely to put up a bigger performance figure-wise.
I’m against Vautour tomorrow but not because of tactics. As long as they’re going fast enough up front I’m sure connections will be happy to see him dropped in. My issue with Vautour is that he has never produced anything like his March performances in December/January. Take this and add it to the potential of him jumping to his right, and stepping into the unknown territory of three miles, and the possibility that he is in fact a happier horse when in front, and he’s not a bet. For the record, I don’t think he needs to be in front, nor will the trip be an issue, but there is a chance they will be. As I said earlier in the race, I’d be very keen on seeing a Gold Cup price for Vautour should he be beaten.
Don Cossack is by far the likeliest winner for me, and I’ll likely back him tomorrow, and already on Valseur Lido e/w at 25’s.
Good point THM. Very “possible that the horses you’ve mentioned do not have to lead due to some preference for being in front, but rather they are seen to best effect from the front as it plays to their strengths”. Although I do believe Nichols Canyon needs to race prominently (not neccessarily front-run, but with a clear view of the hurdles) to show his best. Disappointed when held up in mid-field and taking quite a strong hold in Neptune. Other than that, only time he’s been “held up” over obsticles was on second hurdles start (won) and unseating. It’s not always that they all “need to lead” exactly, it’s that they’re more consistent racing that way. ie Have a better chance of winning/running to their best.
Yes, it could be that some would be as effective if another horse/s made the running at a good pace. Possibly Vautour himself. But Vautour has speed, he’d be effective back at 2 miles. That means slowly run (for the prevailing ground conditions) early stages when racing at 2m4f would be in his favour, ie making it a test of speed over the latter stages. Vautour hasn’t always set a good pace in front (neither has Faugheen). There’s also been cases where other horses have been willing to make the running (eg Irish Saint) but Ruby hasn’t wanted a lead. If Vautour is thought equally effective with a lead, then you’d think there’d have been times in the past where Ruby would’ve let someone else lead at least once.
It isn’t that I think Vautour definitely needs to lead or race prominently, think it is probably something like 60/40. The question of Vautour’s chance has been a little side-tracked by Joe and I’s front-running discussion. As I said earlier in this thread and you rightly point out THM – there are many reasons why Vautour may not run to form. There is a chance he’s a Spring horse and/or wants better ground to show his very best… And even if he would stay the trip on goodish ground, will he stay the trip with the added stamina test soft going and a strongly run race bring?
Value Is Everything
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