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One of the best races of the season, and one of the reasons I much prefer Boxing Day to Christmas Day.
It would be great if the majority stood their ground for this, though understandably, there was disappointment with the absence of Coneygree from the list of entries after that glitch. Would be great to see him supplemented.
It’s one of those races that I normally enjoy without a proper bet on, save for a speculative few quid on a big outsider. This years waste of money is The Young Master, who I thought, should the race cut up, and it become a real slog, then he might give me a bit of a run at 220’s to 240’s.
Seriously though, should be be a cracker (very rare that isn’t), with a supplemented Coneygree, up against market leader Vautour, and the likes of Don Cossack, Saphir Du Rheu, and the rejuvenated Cue Card. If I was having a serious bet though, I’d be very tempted by the 6’s available on dual winner Silviniaco Conti, that really appeals, for a horse who could potentially have this down as his #1 target for the season.
Good stuff, Bobby.
I watched the JLT again the other night. Vautour was still pulling double 3 out and finished as though he could go round again. I agree with those who say we’re moving into a golden age for Chasers, but I think Vautour is potentially the best steeplechaser I’ve ever seen (Arkle was just a year before my time).
My sole concern is that he gave Mullins some serious training problems last season. He was wrong when beaten by Clarcam, and again after his win in January, and Mullins thought at one point he would not be ready for the festival. He worked the horse intensely before March to try and get him fit, and it worked. If he can avoid training problems this season, I cannot see anything getting near this horse.
I’ve asked a couple of firms for prices on the KG/Gold Cup double. Indications are that 9s/10s will be available and I’ll be taking that to my maximum stake.
Joe, I’ve got a theory Vautour is a much better horse going left handed. It could be fictitious as Ruby or Willie have never flagged it, but his performances going right have seemed below par (for him). Nothing technical in these outings have shown this, although it’s a theory I’d rather see proven wrong before I jump on your bandwagon, which, in his given conditions, I’m all ready to leap on. Time will tell.
For me, the key to this race hinges on a decision on the Monday before and whether the Bradstock’s supplement Coneygree. If they do I thin he’s unbeatable, I just cannot see any scenario where he will be beaten.
I can see a similar pattern to last year swapping Coneygree for Silviniaco Conti and Vautour for Champagne Fever. Only this time I can see Coneygree winning more impressively than SC did last year.
It will be the most unbelievable training performance of all time if Willie Mullins can win it with Vautour IMO….He’s put in ONE noteworthy performance which was much shorter in trip and on decent ground and he didn’t have one of the best chasers of the last few decades pouring it on in front either.
Coneygree has only got one question mark against his name (providing he gets supplemented) and that is the ground. I can’t remember a KG in recent times where it wasn’t testing and the way rain comes down these days I would be very surprised if it wasn’t testing on the day. Other than the ground question he is bombproof.
Interesting theory, Boz. Looked back at his last RH run, May 14 and noted a comment by Mullins which adds to my concerns about his training difficulties: Mullins said he hadn’t been quite right early that week.
I might just hold off until declaration time with that KG/GC double, more because Mullins is probably hyper sensitive now to the horse’s potential issues, and, as ever, Cheltenham will be given preference over everything else. But I think so much of this animal that if he turns up at Kempton – even with the right-hand doubts over him – I won’t entertain thoughts of defeat!
My main concern with Coneygree is the fact he was off for a year with injury and is quite heavily bandaged on his hind legs. Does anyone know what the problem was?
It’s a real shame that Coneygree isn’t declared for this. Think the ‘computer glitch’ was them just backtracking after the backlash that followed though to how ridiculous it was not to even keep him in. Though let’s be honest backtrack to Feb/March this year and the same kind of calls from the vast majority of racing fans/jockeys/pundits were made on how stupid it would be running him in the Gold Cup as novice. And look how that turned out so I think it’s hard to question what they do with the horse.
Regarding his injuries – if I remember correctly he was found to be lame shortly before the 2013 festival and then had 2 injuries in the same hind leg (one being caused by him fooling around – known to be a bit bonkers around the gallops at times!) and a pelvic injury. But looking back now I cannot see much about how severe they were. I have to say I’ve only got into horse racing over the last couple of years so Coneygree kind of came from nowhere for me but I really am starting to fall in love with the horse.
Still with this race in mind the only way I think he’ll run in this is if he was to fall early on in the Hennessy (I think he will win) therefore wanting to get another proper run Into him and get him back on track. Otherwise I think it’ll be a case of top weight run in the Hennessy, plenty of time to recover and then maybe take in the Denman again come February like last year.
Back onto the race at this stage – I fancy Vautour…since beating The Tullow Tank in the Deloitte I’ve followed him without question with 2 spectacular runs at Cheltenham obviously the highlights. 2m-2m5 I’d once again have no doubt but I’m slightly dubious on staying the gold cup trip against SUCH a strong crop of the likes of Don Poli and Coneygree come Cheltenham but have little concern at Kempton’s track.
BUT like pointed out above my concern isn’t with the trip at all but how he is to train. You do get the impression that when it comes to the big races – he may be a horse that needs one target to focus on and gets trained hard just for that race to get him to perform to the best of his ability i.e the JLT last year. After that it’s either hard to keep him sound and racing as in missing Punchestown 2015 or likely there will be a drop in performance – Punchestown 2014.
We know that Mullins and Ricci are all about targeting the Spring festivals. I very much doubt Willie would be so hard on Vautour at Christmas time and risk any issues of not being 100% come the Spring and if that’s the case could he take on the likes of Don Cossack and Silviniaco Conti (both I feel have Kempton as a much bigger target than Vautour does rather than a ‘we’ll take in Kempton and see how he goes at the trip’ attitude to it) without being in full gear?
Steeplechasing – bet365 are still offering the 14/1 King George/Gold Cup double which is by far the best from all the firms I found.
And I echo the thoughts on this being a golden age for chasers. Again I missed the Kauto and Denman years so I’m hoping I’m about to witness something great that can be talked about in the same vein
I personally don’t see a problem for this horse to run in the Hennessy and then the KG. He seems to take his racing really well, in 2012 he won twice in November and once in December, then last year after those injuries and nearly 600 days off he reappeared on Hennessy day but still went to Kempton Boxing Day when he could quite easily have bounced.
The Hennessy will be tough, but this fella only has one way of running and I think he definitely has it in him to win the Hennessy and then go again 4 weeks later.
A 10k supplement is not what they would have wanted but the horse more than pays for itself and the prize and prestige for winning a KG is easily worth that supplement..
Come the week before when the decision needs to be made, on all we know of the horse I think he’ll be fresh and bucking and kicking around like normal…would they then think…I know, lets bypass this and wait another couple of months for Newbury? Nah, can’t see that…
Photo Finish – many thanks for that 365 price – your own interpretation of the race is reinforcing my inclination to hold off and see if he is declared (though I might take a wee bit of that 14s).
BTW, how I wish that when I was only fairly new to racing I’d had your balanced outlook and analytical powers (in fact, after almost 50 years, I still live in hope!)
As you know Joe, I’m a big fan of Vautour and have been on his side since his novice hurdling days. I believe this season will show that the horses he beat in the JLT will prove to be a decent bunch and he didn’t just beat them, he was in a race of his own.
However, I would have one concern about Vautour and the King George. His record in the depths of winter has a couple of blemishes. Last season, he made a bad mistake at Leopardstown before getting a serious beating from Clarcam. Many believe he wasn’t himself that day even allowing for the mistake. As a novice hurdler, he made heavy weather of beating Western Boy at Punchestown. Western Boy went on to run a fine race in the Supreme and Vautour wasn’t ridden to best effect that day, so while it seems harsh to be overly critical of that run, it was a below par effort.
Another thing I feel cannot be overlooked is that it is not strange to see a few Willie Mullins horses throw in sub-par runs around Christmas time. One amazing statistic is the record of Mullins chasers in the Lexus versus his Hennessy runners. He has never won a Lexus, yet has won the Hennessy nine times. Contradicting this, it must be said that Champagne Fever’s run in the King George last season was probably one of his best, running an excellent race before the petrol ran out.
Maybe Kempton’s loss will be Leopardstwn’s gain and Coneygree could pitch up for the Lexus. We’d be in for a cracking renewal then with the Gold Cup 1-2-3 going at it again. I’d be quite happy for Don Poli to finish on their tails and get a good look at what he’s going to tow up the hill in March
Aye, Tommy. Very frustrating with these strands of doubt over the horse: as you’ll know, Mullins was convinced he was wrong against Clarcam, even before he made that bad blunder. Perhaps that was his first true clue that the horse was not going to be straightforward, perhaps not so much to train, but to read as far as race-readiness is concerned: I’m fascinated by the trainer’s story of having to put huge amounts of work into the horse before Cheltenham – that must have seemed to him an awful risk.
If you talk about trained-to-the-minute, I have never seen a horse exude so much power in the late stages of a race than he did in the JLT, and I found it astonishing he still had so much in reserve after putting them all to the sword some way from home. You must have been even more impressed knowing how much you think of the runner-up.
Approaching three out, Vautour was literally pulling double, and Ruby just had to draw his horns in slightly while not checking the exuberant jumping. I’m old enough to remember Golden Cygnet winning at the Festival, and I’m in no doubt Vautour impressed me more.
I watched the race again (I keep the CH4 coverage so I can see it in full quality), because I was seriously considering having a very big (for me) bet on him for the Gold Cup. I’ve already backed him at 25s for small money, but believe 9/2 is superb value. On the plus side of his problems, the horse appears – touch wood – to be sound; it seems WM just has to finesse his routine. He’s almost certainly reading the horse better with each passing race, and he will know exactly where he needs to have him for Kempton, safe in the knowledge that he doesn’t need to get him ready again in a month, as he would have had to do for Punchestown in spring.
Bozlike’s right-handed doubts probably bother me more than the horse being ready, but there’s nothing I can do about it, and nothing the trainer can do.
Anyway, I’ve taken some of the 14s. Come decs day, I’ll be happy to take, within reason the best price available about the double. If it’s still double figures, I think it represents a real chance of winning a life-changing amount of money (assuming you can get on), a chance that might be a long, long time in coming round again.
Zamorston – I fully agree that he’s shown form for running in November and December and could definitely take in both races. Add in the fact he took to the track extremely well last Christmas (albeit a race that fell apart). But I think the Bradstocks know this too. They just don’t want to take in the race (imho)
Im not too sure about my balanced outlook and analytical powers, but I’ll happily go along with it
and no problem on the price. I’m extremely tempted myself. I’m a huge fan of Don Poli and have a small stake 20/1 on him for the Gold Cup which I took a week or so before the RSA run. During the festival – Wednesday evening I wished I had put a lot more on and was looking at a certain thing, come Thursday evening I had just witnessed that run by Vautour! (i won’t even go into then Friday and Coneygree) I’m always uneasy backing multiple horses in a race but may have to make an exception with this double.It’s a funny one with Vautour. I know Mullins isn’t the most open but does anyone else find it strange that he has never really clarified (unless I’ve missed it?) what his ‘problems’ have been in the past. I’m assuming it’s just his general demeanour and again trouble training rather than any injuries?
I think it would be fascinating just for interst if Mullins was to switch his priorities for a season and go all out to dominate the early season races – with his current setup I think he’d have the exact same level of dominance and almost certainly have a Lexus win to his name. I really do feel like a lot of the talk by many for Mullin’s string often having sub par runs over Christmas is just down to them often not being fully wound up and often needing the run and never hard pushed at this stage.
You are right though in that there will be a good few months between the King George and Gold Cup where he could give Vautour a break and then bring him back up – something which he has never really had to benefit from so my talk of only being to take in 1 big race a season could become redundant
I can see all the reasons why Vautour looks like a good thing. I think he is for the gold cup and with probably better ground to suit him as well, as justified by the amazing performance in the JLT. I just think it is going to be really difficult overcoming a finely tuned Silviniaco Conti. As he doesn’t seem to perform to his best at Cheltenham it appears they aren’t even aiming him at the race this season. The King George will be his gold cup. We know he acts round Kempton, will act on the ground and stays, whether this as an easy 3 miles or not. Vautour could well hose up, but he has a slight flaw in his make up as was proven last season when Clarcam beat him. He smashed up some useful novices at Cheltenham, but to beat the horse who was top rated chaser last year at his favourite track which will be his gold cup will be a tall order. Especially if Vautour is being trained for one race in mind later in the season? For me the ante post double has to be Silviniaco for the King George and Vautour for the Gold Cup at the prices.
I am not convinced that Vatour will be full effective over 3m2f of a Gold Cup, he has so much natural speed I could see him easily being able to drop back to win a Champion Chase.
Based on his Cheltenham win over 2m5f, I think 3m should be well within his compass (especially on a flat track) but he could be similar to another Mullins great in Florida Pearl who excelled at 3m but was always outstayed in the final 2f of the Gold Cup (in which he was placed twice). The problem is that there is a plethora of strong staying chasers around currently and that means there will be no hiding place for anyone and come Cheltenham in March, you probably need a horse that can ideally stay further than 3m2f.
If we get a good ground King George and Mullins can get a nice prep into him beforehand, I think he will have too much speed for Conti, however, soft ground could blunt that speed and turn it into a right slogging match; which will be right up Conti’s alley – part of me hopes it will be good ground as it could turn into a right burn up for the lead early on if Cue Card runs as well.
Silv Conti is an admirably consistent horse, but I suspect he’s overrated, mostly on his defeat of Cue Card in his first KG when that horse, I’m convinced, went wrong.
He’s currently rated 1lb superior to Vautour. I suspect that is out by a substantial margin.
Vautour’s rating will most definitely exceed SC’s rating, and yes it could be substantial. But SC is very consistent and although the opinion on Cue Card (if and when he went wrong) was that day, I actually think that SC is the underrated horse, especially around Kempton. If he had a better record at Cheltenham, notably when he fell when cantering the year Bobs Worth won, he would have been higher rated. For some reason he doesn’t seem flashy enough or sexy enough like Kauto Star to be seen as an excellent dual King George winner, and I think it will take a very special beast (which Vautour obviously could be) to beat him on Boxing day in my very humble opinion. 6/1….yes please…
I really do feel like a lot of the talk by many for Mullin’s string often having sub par runs over Christmas is just down to them often not being fully wound up and often needing the run and never hard pushed at this stage.
I think we’re in agreement on this. His horses are not going to be ready to run for their lives in this period. The step forward the Mullins horses take from Christmas is usually significant, and the Lexus/Hennessy statistic highlights this.
That being said, they will surely have learned their lesson after the Hennessy last year and there is little point sending a half cooked Vautour to Kempton. I’d expect him to strip fitter than his Lexus horses.
and no problem on the price. I’m extremely tempted myself. I’m a huge fan of Don Poli and have a small stake 20/1 on him for the Gold Cup which I took a week or so before the RSA run. During the festival – Wednesday evening I wished I had put a lot more on and was looking at a certain thing, come Thursday evening I had just witnessed that run by Vautour! (i won’t even go into then Friday and Coneygree) I’m always uneasy backing multiple horses in a race but may have to make an exception with this double.
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