- This topic has 105 replies, 29 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 11 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Listening to Sarah, it does not sound like an injury caused by a shoe moving, if they are digging for an infection and he is lame I would doubt he will be ready. I had a horse tread on a nail and the horse was never lame, it just needed poulticing and was fine in a couple of days. I have also have a horse present with what would appear to be an infection and have a fractured pedal bone. Hope he is out very soon such a wonderful horse.
Coneygree ‘absolutely fantastic’ in his gallop this morning….glad he looks to have gotten over his slight setback and look forward now to see him emulate the great Denman!
Does anyone think If In Doubt has a chance?
I thought he ran pretty well behind Don Poli at Cheltenham and then was hampered early at Fairyhouse.He has no weight 10.3 I think and looks like a thorough stayer which is definitely what you need for this race.
I have had a few quid each way at 16/1 and I just hope he turns up!!
Raymo, if I recall right, the Timeform boys were keen on If in Doubt for this. It’s setting up as a cracking race.
I’ve taken some 14s Valseur Lido as a saver behind Bobs Worth
Does anyone think If In Doubt has a chance?
I thought he ran pretty well behind Don Poli at Cheltenham and then was hampered early at Fairyhouse.He has no weight 10.3 I think and looks like a thorough stayer which is definitely what you need for this race.
I have had a few quid each way at 16/1 and I just hope he turns up!!
I mentioned him on page two, I didn’t take 25/1 but had a bet at 20’s. His jumping is a concern but he fits the bill for this race.
Just seeing who is in after the 5 day decs and I’ve narrowed the shortlist down to around 10 runners
I can understand why Bobs Worth is running due to the weight concession but he has never convinced me that he really enjoys jumping fences (maybe his size means it takes much more effort to get from one side to another) and I am not sure that he is as good as he was when winning the Gold Cup in 2013 and arguably he will be facing tougher opposition as well.
Although he has won on soft ground three times, I think any chance he has would be greatly enhanced by a much sounder surface (5 of his 11 wins have come on good ground with another 3 on good to soft), so if the ground came up on the good side Coneygree may be more vunerable to him and others as he has never actually raced on anything faster than good to soft ground.
For what it is worth, in my opinion Bobs Worth should be going down the stayers route and running in the Long Distance Hurdle on Hennessy day instead.
Can not understand the arguement of Bobs Worth needing good ground LD.
It does not matter how many races BW won on good ground when he won the Cheltenham Gold Cup on “soft”; which is his best ever performance. When a horse puts up his best performance on “soft” why should he be better on “good”? Just what Bobs Worth achieved on reappearance? Not easy to establish, getting a head start in a small field with none of the other runners at their best. But it was a return of his enthusiasm that struck me, over an inadequate trip. Not expecting Bobs Worth to run to Cheltenham Gold Cup winning form, only needs to get within around 10 lbs (may be even a stone) to win easily. Off a mark 27 lbs lower than 5 starts ago. Even though improved a lot between Newbury and Cheltenham is even 7 less than when winning this race. Just because he can do it over hurdles doesn’t mean he can do it over fences, but is encouraging and @ around 8/1 worth finding out.
Value Is EverythingThere’s no doubt Bobs Worth could potentially be well handicapped but it’s a huge leap of faith for me to put your hard earned on….
He’s dropped to that mark for a reason, he’s been diabolical and packed in numerous times of late.
If Coneygree wasn’t running I may have been tempted at bigger prices but for me at the current price he is awful value. With Coneygree in you know it will be a proper test of both stamina and jumping…I don’t see anything in Bobs Worth at present to say he will be up to it.
I’m not looking elsewhere for anything at a price, or anything as a saver because for me it will be one way traffic….7’s was a gift as was 9/2….I still think he will go off 2/1 or shorter on the day when people start seeing sense! And maybe then a few more may start believing!
I have never known a horse win a Cheltenham Gold Cup…Before a Hennesey one.I have seen plenty do it the other way round and will be interested how this stat fares.Those loyal ‘Coneygree’ supporters would argue he’s done the hard bit first!
This looks a more open affair than meets the eye. This Coneygree is some animal and if at his best he’ll take some beating, but I’m willing to take him on, as well as the Nichols horse, who I simply don’t think is a good enough jumper to win a race like the hennessy.
Houblon Des Obeaux looks to have conditions to suit and a weight that surely puts him right in the thick of things.
Bobs Worth is certainly a very tempting proposition, however I’ve never really been overly anamoured with him. I’ll order in a fresh batch of humble pie, in the event he proves me wrong… again.
Splash of Ginge is a favourite of mine, however may be a little out of his depth in this company and I’m not quite convinced he’ll see out the trip at this stage in his career.
Two horses at the bottom of the weights I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on are Fingal Bay and Theatre Guide. The former was disappointing in this last year, however he comes back with a good run under his beer, has less weight on his back and represents a stable in flying form. This race has always been of interest when talking about Theatre Guide. Ticks all the right boxes and again the stable is bringing in the winners.
Coneygree should be able to easily give SDR 9lbs. You know pretty well what you are going to get with coneygree, where as SDR has quite a bit to prove over fences, imo the 5/1 about SDR is rank bad value. One that is of interest to me lower down the weights is Houblon des oboeux, this thing running with 10-7 or 10-9 on its back will think its been let loose. Set to carry a monster 17lbs less than last year and available at 33/1
This year’s race is set to be of higher quality Strawbear, with a top quality top weight. Therefore, Houblon will carry a lot less weight. Officially, he himself was top weight last year. Does not matter if set to carry 17 lbs less when he’s on 156 instead of last year’s 157; just a 1 lb lower (better) mark. That said, not out of it, only beaten 3 1/4 lengths by Many Clouds.
Value Is EverythingSplash of Ginge is a favourite of mine, however may be a little out of his depth in this company and I’m not quite convinced he’ll see out the trip at this stage in his career.
Forget Ginge, he’s crap.
Value Is EverythingI have never known a horse win a Cheltenham Gold Cup…Before a Hennesey one.I have seen plenty do it the other way round and will be interested how this stat fares…
Eight horses have won both the Hennessy & Cheltenham Gold Cups. Of those, four won a Hennessy first, namely Mandarin (HGC 1957/1961 & CGC 1962) Bregawn (HGC 1982 & CGC 1983) Denman (HGC 2007/2009 & CGC 2008) and Bobs Worth (HGC 2012 & CGC 2013).
Those who won at Cheltenham before Newbury were Kerstin (CGC 1958 & HGC 1959) Mill House (CGC 1963 & HGC 1963) Arkle (CGC 1964/1965/1966 & HGC 1964/1965) and Burrough Hill Lad (CGC 1984 & HGC 1984).
Hope that helps.
There’s no doubt Bobs Worth could potentially be well handicapped but it’s a huge leap of faith for me to put your hard earned on….
He’s dropped to that mark for a reason, he’s been diabolical and packed in numerous times of late.
Not “diabolical” last time out (over hurdles) this month Zammer, a firm step back in the right direction. If he can put up a performance of similar ability on Saturday will put him in the firing line… And if capable of just another step back – will take all the beating. They are “ifs”, but not very big ones imo.
Value Is EverythingConeygree is a class horse, and even carrying top weight he might just run them all
into the ground with his relentless gallop, or he might just set it up for something
with stamina to burn who is getting a lumps of weight from him.If the interrupted preparation, even although connections are sounding positive about
that, has taken the slightest edge off him, he could be vulnerable at the finish.My idea of that “something” is THE YOUNG MASTER, who is a very decent horse in his own
right. He’s not in the CONEYGREE league, but he is getting 25 lbs, pull, and has some
serious form. He has won over C&D last year and looked near top class when winning
a listed race over 2m.7f at Ascot in December, that was after romping away
with the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton the previous month, only to be disqualified
because he was not qualified to race having not completed the necessary 3 steeplechase
runs. To add insult to injury, they raised him 14lbs in the handicap.There is no doubt that was an improved run, and bear in mind he went into the RSA at the
Festival this year as an 11/2 shot. That didn’t work out and he was heavily eased when his
chance had gone between the last 2. That was running off level weights with the likes of
DON POLI.He came out 3 weeks back at Carlisle, he was never going to beat SAPHIR DU RHEU, getting
4lbs from him, but with with the race under his belt, and I think that’s all the connections
were hoping for, he receives 16lbs from him here.HE is trained by Neil Mullholland, and I know this is used a lot, but if he were trained
by Nichols or Henderson or the like, there’s no way he would be the 14/1, which he still
is with Tote and Betfred.I’m very keen on his chances and have had a decent bite e/w at those odds.
Best of luck
Not “diabolical” last time out (over hurdles) this month Zammer, a firm step back in the right direction. If he can put up a performance of similar ability on Saturday will put him in the firing line… And if capable of just another step back – will take all the beating. They are “ifs”, but not very big ones imo.
I’d prefer to look at the chances of Bobs Worth on his latest chase form, not a win in a questionable hurdle race that looked more like a public schooling session from Henderson/Ferguson…
You only need look back at the Gold Cup. At a serious gallop his jumping was coming under pressure with 10 fences still to jump. By the time there were seven left to jump he’d had enough…take a couple of stone off him that day and he might just have stayed competitive until about two out…
Then Sandown…a race I actually backed him in, thinking he might just have been well in, again a diabolical performance.. beaten miles in a race by the not so top class Just A Par!
The ‘if’s’ are way too big for me.
‘If’ Coneygree improves again and runs right up to his mark then he will take all the beating IMO. It’s not as if his mark is on the slide and it’s a rating he might run to…that is what he is and until he’s beaten you have to believe he is even better than his current rating.
I know which ‘if’ my money is with…
One thing’s certain, this will be a cracking race. Solid cases made here for a number of horses, and great to see a 5-page thread well in advance of the race.
We’re at the perfect side of the season, where jumping shows the Flat how to really grab fans and excite them. How much will the 2nd season chasers have come on? Can the older warriors rediscover their form as Sprinter and Cue Card have?
And, of course, the biggest question of all, one that never comes into play on the Flat, what will happen at the fences?
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.